RADIO
You need more than a crystal ball or an intelligent football brain to accurately predict what will happen in the NFL every year.
Heading into the 2016 campaign, fantasy football owners probably thought Dallas’ Dak Prescott had no chance of being the best rookie quarterback in the NFL, that Matt Jones would easily emerge as Washington’s workhorse back and Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles would improve upon his super sophomore season to become a top-flight NFL QB.
Prescott ended up posting a 23-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and ultimately driving Tony Romo to the broadcast booth, Jones lost his top tailback spot within a month and ended the season on the sidelines, and Bortles took 10 steps back instead of one step forward and was not even as valuable fantasy-wise as Minnesota’s Sam Bradford when the season was over.
Here are two things fantasy football players assume will happen in 2017 that won’t.
Brandin Cooks - Top-5 Fantasy WR in New England…not!
I get it. Tom Brady makes the receivers around him better. Ask Wes Welker and his fantasy owners from years ago. Randy Moss had the best year of his Hall of Fame-caliber career with Brady throwing to him. Julian Edelman has become a fantasy force in large part to Brady’s pinpoint passes, and others like Chris Hogan and Martellus Bennett had their fantasy values buoyed by Brady in 2016.
So Cooks, who might be the luckiest receiver in the NFL because he played the first three years of his career with Drew Brees and now has Brady as his quarterback for the foreseeable future (Houston’s DeAndre Hopkins must be envious), is the next pass catcher ready to have Brady boost his numbers and fantasy worth in 2017.
Cooks was not a speedy slouch with Brees in New Orleans. He racked up 162 receptions, 2,311 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns over the past two seasons and has been a tremendous help to fantasy owners. His big-play ability made him even more valuable in distance leagues where bonus points are awarded for long touchdowns.
But New Orleans’ receiving corps was not big enough for both Cooks and phenom Michael Thomas, especially with the Saints realizing that more resources needed to be spent on its defense and less on Brees’ playmakers. So New Orleans traded Cooks to New England for first and third-round draft picks, and immediately fantasy owners started salivating at the prospect of Cooks teaming up with Brady on 70-yard touchdowns every week.
Before you pencil Cooks in for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns, though, remember that Brady has other weapons to spread the wealth to. Gronkowski (when healthy) will probably remain the No. 1 option in the passing attack, especially inside the red zone. Edelman will still be the top target on third downs. The Patriots also have newly-acquired Dwayne Allen at tight end and holdovers Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell in the fold, so if you think Cooks will be targeted 12 times per game you are mistaken. Cooks did not even average eight targets per game over the past two years with the Saints.
Cooks will be a fantasy force, no doubt about that. Gronkowski and Edelman will open up the field for Cooks and prevent many defenses from double covering him deep. But if you think Cooks will be rivaling Antonio Brown, Odell Beckham and Julio Jones at the top of the fantasy receiver heap, you are not taking other factors into consideration.
Colin Kaepernick Will Not Be a Starting Quarterback in 2017…. Come on!
To say Kaepernick had an interesting 2016 is akin to saying Bill O’Reilly has an interesting way of handling sexual harassment claims. Kaepernick made numerous headlines by kneeling for the National Anthem and igniting a groundswell of others to follow suit. It opened up a much-needed discussion about the race relations situation in America and made Kaepernick a polarizing figure where football fans and people in general with either totally on his side or calling him anti-American.
But after Kaepernick was finished being the poster boy for activism, he took over the San Francisco 49ers offense and played the best football he has since becoming a breakout star in 2012. He had the best TD-to-INT ratio of his career in 2017, posting an impressive 16-to-4 mark, and his 90.7 QB rating was his highest since 2013.
What was not impressive, however, is that he ranked 24th among quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt and 26th in completion percentage. He also only threw for over 300 yards one time and only threw for over 250 yards in three of his dozen appearances.
Kaepernick has been seemingly shunned like he is a Trump supporter at a Democratic convention. Even with the NFL so starved for quarterbacks that Josh McCown, Cody Kessler and Brian Hoyer are slated to be starters at this juncture, Kaepernick has not been linked to any organization this offseason. He must be thought of as too much of a public relations fiasco to be worth the effort since he is an average quarterback.
But at some point, whether during the summer, during training camp, or once the season is underway, someone will come calling for Kap. His skill set and physical tools are too much to ignore, especially in a talent-depleted NFL when it comes to quarterbacks. Kaepernick is a below-average passer, but he can scramble for huge yards and has proven he can be a game manager now that he has cut down on his interceptions.
Look for Kaepernick to end up starting somewhere by mid-season, either due to an untimely injury or because he outplays a mediocre teammate. Fantasy owners should pay close attention to how his offseason goes heading into fantasy drafts and auctions. Depending on where he signs and what his competition is, Kaepernick could be a decent late-round speculation pick if you can stash quarterbacks on your roster or you need to have two active QBs in your lineup every week.
Keep tabs on Rotoballer's NFL page for the latest reaction and analysis to free agent moves in order to stay ahead of the game.
