RADIO
MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament.
And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship.
Anyway, Jason and I will be taking a look at the main card for UFC 204. We will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers. We will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records.
Justin's Record: 44-19
Jason's Record: 35-28
Without anymore waiting, here are our picks and analysis for the main card at UFC 204.
Mirsad Bektic vs Russell Doane
Justin’s Pick
This is a showcase fight for Mirsad Bektic. He is undefeated, including a 3-0 record in the UFC. Doane, on the other hand, has lost each of his last three fights after starting 2-0 in the UFC. He has good power, but Bektic will have the advantage no matter where this fight ends up. He should be able to wear Doane down throughout the fight with smooth striking, while mixing in a few takedowns before ending him in the final round.
Mirsad Bektic via TKO, 3rd Round
Jason’s Pick
This is one of the easiest fights to predict on the main card. Mirsad Bektic is a huge favorite over Russell Doane and for great reason. He is undeafted in his professional career, and Doane has been struggling in the octagon of recent. The UFC obviously does not want Bektic to lose, as he has the advantage both standing and on the ground. He is quicker, better defensively, and great on the ground. After watching Brandon Moreno defeat Louis Smolka, it is impossible to claim that Doane doesn’t have a chance, but it would be a similar upset.
Mirsad Bektic via TKO, 2nd Round
Stefan Struve vs Daniel Omielanczuk
Justin’s Pick
This is an interesting matchup. Struve has a questionable chin, but Omielanczuk doesn’t have the power of some of the other heavyweights in the division. In turn, Struve has solid power, but Omielanczuk has never been finished in his career. Struve will have a sizeable reach advantage, as he has in many of his fights. That will help him keep this fight standing, as he uses jabs to keep Omielanczuk on the outside. Eventually, he’ll land a big shot, which will end Omielanczuk’s night.
Stefan Struve via TKO, 2nd Round
Jason’s Pick
It has been six consecutive fights since a disagreement broke out, but this fight will end that. Stefan “Skyscraper” Struve definitely has the reach advantage, but Daniel Omielanczuk should be able to close the distance with his accurate and well-timed punches. He does not have great power, but Struve does not have a great chin. If anyone is getting knocked out in this fight, it is going to be Struve, not Omielanczuk. With great accuracy in his hands, the number 14 ranked heavyweight from Poland will climb the ladder at the expense of the number 12 ranked heavyweight from the Netherlands.
Daniel Omielanczuk via KO, 2nd Round
Ovince Saint Preux vs Jimi Manuwa
Justin’s Pick
Jimi Manuwa is a fighter that tends to fly a bit under the radar, but the only two losses of his career came against two of the best fighters in the world in his division. Ovince Saint Preux has lost more fights, but his losses have also come against elite competition. Both fighters have good stand up, but Saint Preux also has the wrestling to control Manuwa for three rounds. The latter certainly has more than enough power to end the fight with one punch, but I’m expecting Saint Preux to play it safe and pick up the win.
Ovince Saint Preux via Unanimous Decision
Jason’s Pick
In his last fight, Ovince Saint Preux looked miserably bad. He was not prepared due to the short notice, but he should return with a vengeance. Jimi “Poster Boy” Manuwa is definitely stiff competition, but as Justin previously mentioned, OSP has the wrestling to make this fight boring. It may not be what the fans want to see, but OSP and his camp really don’t care. Why should they? Expect a fairly boring wrestling match that ends in OSP’s favor.
Ovince Saint Preux via Unanimous Decision
Vitor Belfort vs Gegard Mousasi
Justin’s Pick
Belfort has adapted well to his aging body, as he used to rely on hand speed, but now relies much more on his kicks. He’ll face off against Mousasi, who is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the UFC. Belfort always has the potential to land a knockout at any point in time during the fight, but Mousasi has a great chin, so that outcome is unlikely. Mousasi is also the more active fighter, and he should be able to hand Belfort his second consecutive loss.
Gegard Mousasi via TKO, 2nd Round
Jason’s Pick
This is definitely going to be a fun and interesting fight, but the outcome is somewhat obvious. This is the UFC so anything is possible, but Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort is simply outmatched by Gegard Mousasi in this fight. Mousasi is good enough on his back to keep this fight standing, tends to push his fights forward, and has better accuracy and defense while throwing hands. Belfort has a lot of knockout power, but Mousasi is too good defensively to allow a hand or foot to connect flush with his chin. Mousasi, due to his tendency to pressure opposing fighters, should end this fight early.
Gegard Mousasi via TKO, 3rd Round
Michael Bisping vs Dan Henderson
Justin’s Pick
I personally do not believe that Dan Henderson deserves this title shot, but then again, I also did not believe Michael Bisping deserved one against Luke Rockhold either. Henderson is a lousy 3-6 in his last nine fights, and he was all but knocked out by Hector Lombard before winning in the second round of his last fight. He’s also one big punch away from winning any fight, but Bisping has the defense to strike with Henderson while avoiding that right hand. Bisping will get his revenge and send Henderson to retirement empty handed.
Michael Bisping via TKO, 4th Round
Jason’s Pick
Dan “Hendo” Henderson is looking to secure the only belt that he never obtained. Michael “The Count” Bisping is looking to knock him out, a little bit of revenge for when Henderson punched him in the face after the fight was clearly over. The latter is more likely to happen. Henderson is essentially finished. He knows that. The UFC knows that. Bisping even knows that. His one punch power gives him a chance in this fight, but he will likely never win that championship. He will, however, walk away with a huge paycheck and a spot in the UFC history book.
Michael Bisping via TKO, 2nd Round
