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UFC 218: MMA Main Card Predictions and DFS Picks

What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for UFC 218. Our analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. We will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers. We will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's Record: 169-85).

MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are our DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at UFC 218.

Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.

 

Tecia Torres vs Michelle Waterson

This fight will likely go one of two ways. Torres can keep the fight standing and she outstrikes Waterson for three round or Waterson gets this fight to the ground and finds a finish. The former is more likely to happen, though. Waterson has questionable at best striking defense, while Torres is extremely active. Torres also has respectable takedown defense, which should be enough to keep this fight standing for the majority of the three rounds. Torres does not have the finishing ability to put Waterson away, but she should be able to outpoint her for three rounds.

Tecia Torres via Unanimous Decision

 

Eddie Alvarez vs Justin Gaethje

This is the fight I am most looking forward to on this card. Gaethje was a monster in his first fight and I am wondering if Alvarez is on the wrong side of his career. Alvarez is coming off a disheartening loss to Conor McGregor before recording a no contest against Dustin Poirier in a fight that he was losing. Gaethje, on the other hand, beat Michael Johnson in his UFC debut. This fight is fairly simple, honestly. Gaethje is going to walk through punches in hopes of landing his own shot. He continuously has stated that all you have to do is “break your opponents will” to win the fight. That is not the recipe for success late in your career, but Gaethje’s chin is made of something that is no of this world. Alvarez would be wise to turn this into a wrestling match, but when the bright lights are on and fans are cheering for a slugfest, most fighters will oblige. That will be a big mistake by Alvarez.

Justin Gaethje, TKO, 2nd Round

 

Henry Cejudo vs Sergio Pettis

This is arguably the most underrated fight on the card. Pettis is seen as a rising star, while Cejudo is one of the best in the division. Pettis is on a four fight win streak, while Cejudo is 1-2 in his last three fights. With that being said, Cejudo has fought the better competition, as he only lost to Demetrious Johnson and Joseph Benavidez. He also looked elite in his last fight against Wilson Reis, and it looks as if Cejudo is trying to rejuvenate his career. I feel at this point in their careers, Cejudo is likely the better fighter regardless of where this fight plays out. He is the more accurate and defensive striker, while he has elite grappling credentials. Pettis will have his day in the sun, but it will not be this weekend.

Henry Cejudo via Unanimous Decision

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Alistair Overeem vs Francis Ngannou

I feel at this point in their careers, this fight is simply a formality. Ngannou is 5-0 in the UFC, finishing all of his fights with ease. Overeem has been an elite fighter for some time, but there are concerns that his chin is fading. It would be wise for him to try to turn this fight into a decision, in which he does not throw any caution to the wind. Ngannou, on the other hand, has as much power as any heavyweight fighter in the world. He has never fought three rounds, though, and it is not completely known if he has the cardio to do so. With that being said, he has never threatened to gas before, making it likely that he will have no problems fighting for three rounds. Even if Ngannou has a difficult time hitting Overeem, it only takes one punch from the former to result in a knockout.

Francis Ngannou, TKO, 1st Round

 

Max Holloway vs Jose Aldo

Truth be told, I’m not sure this fight should be happening. Holloway won easily enough in the first fight that I don’t think they should be running this back. Aldo is an aging fighter that is still extremely talented. With that being said, he continues to progress further and further away from his prime, while Holloway is still years away from his prime. Holloway is learning at a rapid rate, being only 25 years old. His last loss was a decision to Conor McGregor in 2013. I still enjoy watching someone as good as Aldo fight, but I do not particularly think this fight is going to stay competitive.

Max Holloway, TKO, 2nd Round




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