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UFC 225: MMA Main Card Predictions and DFS Picks

What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for UFC 225. My analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. I will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers, starting fresh for 2018. I will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's 2018 Record: 35-18).

MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are my DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at UFC 225.

Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.

 

CM Punk vs Mike Jackson

This card is stacked, and it’s a shame that this fight is on the main card. Punk is a massive draw and from Chicago, though, so it comes as no surprise. Both fighters were easily defeated by Mickey Gall in their respective UFC debuts. Jackson is also 0-1 as an amateur, losing a unanimous decision to Nick Felder. He has a boxing background, but Jackson was almost immediately dropped by Gall, who is not known as a dominant striker. Punk has very little MMA training, but we know his pure athleticism from his time in the WWE. It’s tough to imagine that is enough to get by against someone that has at least some real boxing experience. I think the line to this fight should be a bit closer, but Jackson should be the favorite.

Mike Jackson, TKO, 1st Round

 

Andrei Arlovski vs Tai Tuivasa

Arlovski has looked like a much smarter fighter over his last two fights, recording decision wins rather than throwing heavy punches. He’ll likely implement a similar strategy this weekend, as Tuivasa is an extremely powerful fighter, who owns a 100% knockout rate. The issue for Arlovski is that Tuivasa likely will not allow that to happen. He’s a pressure fighter that seems comfortable throwing in any type of environment. Arlovski will likely have a difficult time backing Tuivasa up, which could spell trouble for his aging chin. Tuivasa is likely ready for the step up in competition, and he should be able to add another highlight knockout to his resume.

Tai Tuivasa, TKO, 1st Round

 

Holly Holm vs Megan Anderson

This is a fight I’m quietly looking forward to. I’m not a huge fan of Holm, and I feel she has looked a bit overmatched in a few of her last fights. She’s a counter-striker, though, so her fights generally are not overly exciting. Keep in mind, Holm is an elite fighter at her game. She’ll face off against Anderson, who will be making her UFC debut. She has been good enough to be in the UFC for quite some time, although she has a couple bad losses on her record. She is a powerful fighter, though, and loves pressuring her opponent. That type of fight plays into the style of Holm, which is a concern for Anderson. Still, Holm’s counter-striker style does not always impress the judges, and Anderson’s power could make the difference in this fight. I think it’s another close matchup, but ultimately, Anderson will leave with a guaranteed title shot against Cyborg on deck.

Megan Anderson via Unanimous Decision

 

Rafael Dos Anjos vs Colby Covington

Dos Anjos has looked outstanding since joining the welterweight division, beating three of the divisions best. Covington is on a five fight win streak, but his matchups were seemingly significantly easier. He has fought two higher end opponents, both of which struggle against wrestlers. Dos Anjos should have a clear advantage over Covington standing and in the clinch. Covington is the better wrestler, but Dos Anjos features tremendous grappling credentials. If Covington can consistently secure the takedown, this is his fight to lose. I don’t feel that will be the case, though, and RDA has more ways to win this fight.

Rafael Dos Anjos via Unanimous Decision

 

Robert Whittaker vs Yoel Romero

Whittaker and Romero have been two of the most impressive in the UFC for quite some time. Whittaker has won eight consecutive fights dating back to 2014, including four knockouts. Romero, on the other hand, is 9-1 in his last 10 fights, losing only to Whittaker in July of last year. Both fighters come with fight ending power, although Romero is arguably the more powerful of the duo. Romero is also the better wrestler, but Whittaker was essentially able to negate that advantage in their first fight. I’m expecting this fight to be extremely similar, although Romero is only ever one strike away from finishing his opponent.

Robert Whittaker via Unanimous Decision

 




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