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UFC on Fox 27: MMA Main Card Predictions and DFS Picks

What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for UFC on Fox 27. My analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. I will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers, starting fresh for 2018. I will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's 2018 Record: 2-1).

MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are my DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at UFC on Fox 27.

Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.

 

Drew Dober vs Frank Camacho

This is a fight that could quietly be in the running for Fight of the Night. Dober has struggled in the UFC, but he does come with a fairly versatile game. He has the potential to win via knockout or submission. With that being said, Camacho displayed a tremendous chin in his last fight, which was a barnburner decision victory against Damien Brown. Camacho is not a fighter to throw out the door, but I feel Dober has more ways to win this fight. If he begins to struggle on the feet, he can work his ground game. He also has more experience, fighting in the UFC nine times, as opposed to Camacho’s two UFC fights. Camacho is a live dog in this fight, but I am siding with Dober’s versatility to pick up the win this weekend.

Drew Dober via Unanimous Decision

 

Jordan Rinaldi vs Gregor Gillespie

Unlike the first fight on the main card, I do not believe this fight will be close. Rinaldi pulled off an impressive win in his last fight, but that was against mediocre competition compared to Gillespie. Gillespie is a relentless wrestler that has been working on his standup. While he does have reasonable standup, he will work as many takedowns as he possibly needs this weekend. Gillespie also has an elite gas tank, making his wrestling and pressure that much more difficult to deal with. He has also fought the better competition, while dominating each of his fights. Gillespie has multiple ways to win this fight, and scoring points with the judge’s in one of his specialties.

Gregor Gillespie via Unanimous Decision

 

Dennis Bermudez vs Andre Fili

Bermudez has run into tough times recently, winning only two of his last six fights. He has fought some of the top competition in the division, though. Fili, on the other hand, has had ups and downs throughout his career, winning his winnable fights, while losing tougher fights. If that trend continues in Fili’s career, this is a fight that he should lose. Digging deeper, Bermudez is the slightly better striker, although Fili is more active, which could score points with the judges. I feel like fight will likely go the distance, while staying fairly even on the feet. I do believe that Bermudez has the better grappling, though, and a few takedowns should be enough to sway the judges.

Dennis Bermudez via Unanimous Decision

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Ronaldo Souza vs Derek Brunson

I am beyond excited for this fight. Souza’s last four losses have come to Robert Whittaker, Yoel Romero, Luke Rockhold, and Gegard Mousasi. Brunson’s have come to Anderson Silva (in a fight he arguably won), Robert Whittaker, Yoel Romero, and Souza. In other words, both fighters have only lost to elite competition since 2012 or later. In their first fight, Souza won via KO, but they are two different fighters at this point in their careers. Brunson has yet to be taken down in the UFC, and it can be argued that Souza is now past his prime. Does that mean Brunson has the advantage the second time around? I’m not completely sure. Souza is the more defensive striker, but he comes with plenty of power when he lands. I expect this fight to take place on the feet, leaving the first fighter to land a big shot to have a significant advantage. I expect that to be Brunson, who throws at a higher rate with more accuracy. Sound the mild upset alarms.

Derek Brunson, TKO, 2nd Round

 




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