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UFC on Fox 28: MMA Main Card Predictions and DFS Picks

What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for UFC on Fox 28. My analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. I will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers, starting fresh for 2018. I will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's 2018 Record: 13-10).

MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are my DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at UFC on Fox 28.

Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.

 

Mike Perry vs Max Griffin

This fight is fairly simple. Mike Perry is a rising star, while Max Griffin has struggled against UFC-level talent. Perry has some of the heaviest hands in the welterweight division, winning each of his 11 wins via knockout. He loves pressuring his opponents, while wildly swinging with bad intentions. Griffin has struggled with his striking defense throughout his UFC career, and there is no reason to believe he will be able to continuously handle Perry’s power. Griffin does come with some power himself, but I simply cannot see him winning a striking battle against someone like Perry.

Mike Perry, TKO, 1st Round

 

Ovince Saint Preux vs Ilir Latifi

Ovince Saint Preux has won three fights in a row after losing three in a row to elite competition. There were reports that OSP did not have his heart in fighting during his losing streak, but he has since regained the passion. It’s tough to know exactly how true that is, but he has looked good in his winning streak, and there is no denying that. Ilir Latifi has also been fighting well, winning four of his last five fights. His only loss was to Ryan Bader, who hit Latifi with a vicious knee. In his last fight, Latifi knocked off Tyson Pedro, who has been seen as a top prospect in this division. I feel these two are fairly evenly matched on the feet, although I might give a slight edge to OSP. I’m giving the grappling advantage to Latifi, who features a 100% takedown defense rate. Latifi will look to wear OSP down with grappling, as OSP has featured questionable cardio throughout his career. This grinding style will not only take away OSP’s power, but it will also help Latifi score with the judge’s.

Ilir Latifi via Unanimous Decision

 

Jessica Andrade vs Tecia Torres

Tecia Torres is a great fighter, but she is going against a different monster in Jessica Andrade this weekend. Andrade ran through Gadelha with ease in a way that I never would have imagined. Torres features a speed based game that utilizes great footwork, which is my only concern in this fight. If Torres can find a way to stay away from Andrade and counterstrike using her footwork, she has a chance to pull off the upset. Andrade is a great pressure fighter, though, and she is a cardio machine. In the UFC, Andrade is landing nearly 6.5 significant strikes per minute to go along with 2.5 takedowns per fight. While I do like Torres quite a bit, Andrade is on her way to another title shot, and Torres will simply be a stepping stone.

Jessica Andrade via Unanimous Decision

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Josh Emmett vs Jeremy Stephens

This fight honestly is fairly simple to me, which could end up being a problem. Josh Emmett is an overrated prospect, while Jeremy Stephens is an underrated veteran. Hear me out. Emmett recently took a fight on short notice against Ricardo Lamas, missed weight, and knocked him out with a vicious punch. Since then, Emmett has been seen as this power striker that can finish anyone with a single punch, yet only 31% of his wins have come via knockout, while 54% have come from decision. Emmett lost to Desmond Green within the last year, and was written off by everyone until he fought Lamas. Emmett is a great fighter, but his ascent to the top of the division seems to be based around one punch. Stephens, on the other hand, has continuously fought top competition since joining the UFC. He has had mixed results, but he recently took out Doo Ho Choi, who was seen as the next big prospect. Choi featured an elite chin, and Stephens was able to finish him, displaying true power for his division. The wildcard here is Emmett’s grappling. If he is able to utilize his wrestling and win rounds against Stephens, he could win this fight, but I feel Stephens’ grappling is good enough to negate that for the most part. If this fight stays on the feet, I will be giving Stephens a significant edge over Emmett.

Jeremy Stephens, TKO, 3rd Round




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