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"Don't let them bury me... I'm not dead yet!" A classic line from the criminally underrated Serpent and the Rainbow but it's also the first thing that comes to mind when I think of Albert Pujols. Many fantasy managers focus on youth even in non-keeper leagues, and for good reason.
The next generation of stars has officially arrived in the form of Harper, Trout, Correa, Harvey, Syndergaard and others. But among the shiny new toys are Old Reliables who are past their prime, but keep on plugging away with consistency. It's easy to write off a veteran player as "in decline" after a down year, but some players have proven they still have plenty left in the tank and passing on them can be a mistake. Trust me, I've learned the hard way. I was once guilty of ageism.
I blame Bret Boone for my bias against veteran players. The year was 2005 and I was confident drafting Boone early on as my starting second baseman. A three time All-Star and perennial top fantasy choice at 2B, Boone was coming off a season of 24 HRs and 83 RBIs in 2004. The previous year, he was an All-Star who hit .294 and went 35/117, even garnering some MVP votes. Safe bet, I figured. By the end of the first month, he was not even worth a roster spot and it was obvious he had completely fallen apart at the wheels. Next season he's hanging them up and sitting on a beach somewhere drinking Mai Tais while I'm cursing my last-place finish (at least that's what I imagined he was doing).
Albert Pujols really pushed me over the edge though. A no-brainer top pick for years, he moved to the Angels in 2012 and hit .285 with 30 HR and 105 RBI. Still pretty good, but that was considered a down year for him. Take into account he had to adjust to the American League, fit into a new lineup, add in some pressure from a huge contract, and it would be reasonable to expect his production to increase the following year. In 2013, I went the safe route and selected Pujols with the #1 overall pick. My reward? 17 HR, 64 RBI in 99 games and a .258 average to boot.
These experiences made me leery of any veteran player who showed a downward trend in performance. The past two years I've passed on Pujols for the likes of Billy Butler and Mark Trumbo. Oops. I know better than to write off an All-Star caliber player prematurely now. With that being said, here are two hitters from each league who aren't ready to be buried quite yet for fantasy baseball owners.
Veterans That Shouldn't be Overlooked on Draft Day
Matt Holliday - OF, STL
Matt Holliday has an ADP around 200 overall and is ranked just outside the top 50 OF in most draft formats. I'm not saying I want him starting in LF necessarily, but if he continues to get time at first base, he could make a good value at a CI spot or as a fourth outfielder. He was limited due to injury last year, but remember this is a career .307 hitter who averages nearly 23 HRs and 91 RBIs per season.
Of course, he's not in Colorado any more and nobody is denying he is past his prime years, but there is still value to be had here. Before last year's injury plagued season, he had a WAR of 3.5 or higher in each of the previous five seasons and had at least 20 HR and 83 RBI for nine consecutive seasons. It's unlikely Holliday will fall completely off the map. Although 20 HR might be his ceiling at this point, his floor should remain pretty high as well.
Brandon Phillips - 2B, CIN
Brandon Phillips must really like Cincinnati. The rebuilding Reds, who will battle to stay out of the cellar this year, tried to trade Phillips to the contending Washington Nationals this off-season. He flexed a no-trade clause to guarantee he stays at 2B in Cincy, consequently delaying Jose Peraza's ascent to the position. You may be hesitant to put much stock into anyone who was originally drafted by the Montreal Expos in the previous century, but Phillips showed he still has plenty of life left after scuffling in 2014. Since arriving in Cincinnati, he had hit 17+ HR in eight straight seasons until 2014. A couple of DL stints affected his stats but he still didn't look like the same player that year and many were ready to write him off.
Last year's resurgence was surprising, not simply because of his age, but the fact that he provided more value in the speed category than power, stealing 23 bases. Phillips also hit .294, his highest average in five seasons. To think you could get a second baseman hitting double-digits in HR, SB and an average close to .300 at an ADP around 250 and outside the top 20 among his position rivals, you have to ask yourself: Would you really rather have DJ Lemahieu?
Carlos Beltran - OF, NYY
Carlos Beltran is almost 39 years old - practically a senior citizen in terms of professional sports. Since joining the Yankees two years ago, he is yet to surpass 20 HRs or 70 RBIs in a season. Clearly on the decline and not worth drafting, right? Remember that various injuries limited him to 449 plate appearances in 2014 and 531 PA last year.
If fully healthy, Beltran could go 20/70 while hitting around .280. Don't expect him to steal any bases - those days are long gone. The key here again is draft value. As a reserve OF, he could be a nice late pick. Aaron Hicks profiles better as a reserve outfielder and Aaron Judge is not quite ready to be an everyday starter. Unless he struggles badly, Beltran's job should be safe one more year.
Alex Rodriguez - DH, NYY
Alex Rodriguez is still going! At least for two more years... After announcing his retirement just in time to visit each ballpark a dozen more times for the last time, baseball's most loved-to-hate player is hanging it up. Many fantasy owners wrote him off after his season-long suspension from the game. He bounced back in a big way though, swatting 33 HR with 86 RBI and scoring 83 runs.
A line of .250/.356/.486, while not on par with his golden days, shows that he isn't just swinging for the fences at this point either. Don't doubt he will have Aaron/Bonds in his sights these last two seasons now that he is approaching 700 career home runs. Expect consistent power numbers from a player many fantasy owners don't want to consider just on principle.
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