RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target ~280
CURRENT ADP: 363
ANALYSIS: Vincent Velasquez turned heads in 2016 when he posted a solid 10.44 K/9, satisfactory 4.12 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Expected to leap forward, Velasquez face-planted in 2017 and regressed meaningfully. An August finger injury mercifully ended his season. Velasquez finished with a 2-7 record, 5.13 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His K-rate declined to 8.50 and an acceptable 3.09 BB/9 ballooned to 4.25.
In 2018, the 25-year-old Velasquez sets up as a post-hype sleeper. His mid-300s ADP suggests he's not even an afterthought. The Phillies seem committed to Velasquez and he's penciled in as their third starter. Harnessing his curve and change would complement a decent fastball-slider combination. However, Velasquez needs to lower the walks. His career 2.78 K/BB leaves much to be desired. Less wildness could keep hitters off-balance and lower the high .315 BABIP, creating a virtuous cycle for an improved WHIP. Regarding luck, his 20.8% HR/FB last year would've ranked 2nd in the majors last had he qualified.
Folks in Philadelphia rave about Velasquez' stuff and he should have ample opportunity to prove himself. A few strong outings can do wonders for confidence. Guys like Tanner Roark, Tyler Chatwood and Marco Estrada are going 50-plus picks higher. Taking Vince Velasquez as a final-round flyer makes just as much sense.
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