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ANALYSIS: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Vince Velasquez broke onto the scene with a three-hit, 16 strikeout shutout against the Padres in 2016, but it has been down hill from there. He has dealt with nothing but injuries and busted potential since then. In his start against the Rays this past weekend, the fastball looked close to what it was in 2016. His velocity was around 95 MPH in this start and topped out at 98 MPH.
When he is at his best, Velasquez can overpower hitters and live on a diet of mostly fastballs, but there is reason be skeptical of his recent performance. He is coming off two dominant starts, but they came against two of the worst teams in the league. The Rays are 24th in the majors with a .283 wOBA, and the Marlins are 29th with a .274 wOBA. He is hard to trust even in a neutral matchup, because most quality hitters can crush fastballs, even good ones like Velasquez’s fourseamer. He is especially bad against teams with a lot of power hitters, as Velasquez has a career 1.35 HR/9 and had a 1.88 HR/9 last season.
We need to see him do it against a team with even an average lineup before trusting Velasquez as more than a matchup-based streamer, but his is worth a shot against the Braves tomorrow in Atlanta.
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