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With Week 3 in the books, we now have to take a step back and analyze which players could be trending in the wrong direction.
Being objective will be key here since some of these players were held in high regard going into the season. Nonetheless, it's about exploiting gaps in the market and selling off before a player's stock bottoms out.
Let's take a look at some of the warning signals from Week 3.
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Quarterback
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
Wentz has thrown two interceptions in each of his last three games. Against the Bengals, in week three we saw his play take a wrong turn with many inaccurate passes. He was off-the-mark on a lot of his throws which led to many bad plays.
The cast around him hasn’t been that great. Greg Ward was his leading receiver, catching eight passes for 72 yards and one touchdown. The Eagles were hoping the offense would receive a boost from first-round rookie Jalen Reagor, but he’s currently out with an injury.
His bad decision making could be due to not having enough talent around him. It is a lot harder for a quarterback to make plays when he lacks chemistry with his wide receivers. Wentz is also not getting bailed out as much by his pass catchers, making it harder for him to sustain drives.
On a positive note, Wentz finished week three as a QB1 with 21.50 fantasy points. Even while playing in chaos, he is still productive from a fantasy football perspective. We just need him to continue to produce going forward. It’s going to be hard for him to maintain consistency when he has to play against the San Francisco 49ers, Pittsburg Steelers, and the Baltimore Ravens Defenses over the next three weeks.
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
The Bears were trailing by 16 points when head coach Matt Nagy signaled to the bullpen for veteran quarterback Nick Foles to come off the bench to replace Mitchell Trubisky. At that point in the game, Trubisky completed 13 of his 22 pass attempts for 128 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. He has not looked good all year on top of him posting nothing but questionable play throughout the 2019 season.
Foles took the reins, leading the Bears to a 30-26 comeback victory over the Atlanta Falcons. It’s safe to say, Foles is the teams starting quarterback going forward. Without an injury or horrendous play, it’s hard seeing Trubisky suiting back up as the starting quarterback for the Bears this season.
Running Back
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
Oddly, Swift saw an eight percent snap share in week eight. He caught one of his two targets for 19 yards. The lack of usage is a major concern for the rookie running back. With Adrian Peterson receiving a 61 percent snap share and 22 carries in week three, it appears that head coach Matt Patricia is leaning away from his rookie running back.
Expectations were high for Swift going into the 2020 season. Just by judging his college tape and combine numbers, he’s easily the most electric running back on the roster. The fact he’s on the outside looking in when it comes to workload means there’s possibly something the coaching staff doesn’t like about Swift’s game. Either way, it’s going to be hard to start Swift with confidence until he proves himself.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
There were many fantasy gamers who were heavily relying on Joe Mixon’s production going into this season. Unfortunately, his production has not matched the hype. Between Giovani Bernard stealing some of the passing down workload, and the offensive line not being able to maintain a solid push up front, the odds of Mixon developing into one of the top fantasy assets are starting to dwindle away.
Mixon is still a very talented player. Nothing has changed in his abilities. However, the environment around him is a lot different compared to last season. The offense is transitioning with Joe Burrow. There’s a chance the offensive philosophy changes during the season.
Even though the Bengals had the lead during a scalable portion of the contest, the game script wasn’t beneficial to Mixon’s workload. The team is going to be playing from behind a lot this season, suggesting the game scripts might impact Mixon’s usage. Although he’s stout in the passing game, Burrow excels at extending the play and making the tough throws downfield. Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and even A.J. Green will steal the show in the passing game, making it hard for the running backs to gain much traction on a consistent basis.
He might be considered a buy-low at this point. We only have a three-game sample on the season. The team could decide to redirect their approach and give Mixon more opportunities to succeed. After all, compared to Bernard, he almost tripled his snap count and ran two times the routes. The rubber eventually has to meet the road for Mixon.
Wide Receiver
Curtis Samuel, Carolina Panthers
With Christian McCaffrey out of the lineup, there was a strong possibility that Curtis Samuel could receive a larger role within the offense. In week three, he was targeted just four times. He did reel in all four of his passes for 45 yards.
The addition of Robby Anderson took the wind out of Samuel’s sails. Anderson is a deep threat who is stealing a large share of the targets. Samuel is going to continue to struggle to put fantasy points on the board as long as Anderson is there to siphon away the workload.
Mike Davis stepped in and did his best rendition of McCaffery in week three, rushing for eight passes for 45 yards and one touchdown. If we don’t see a reduction in running back targets, then it’s hard to imagine a world where Samuel provides consistent fantasy production.
Tight End
Chris Herndon, New York Jets
Going into the season, Herndon was pegged as one of the top pass-catchers in the Jets’ offense. Even with building a few years of continuity with Sam Darnold, Herndon has struggled to carve out a large enough role in the passing game to be fantasy relevant.
Part of the issue is that the Jets’ offense is nonexistent. Darnold is running for his life to make plays and has also been very inconsistent. This has caused Herndon to disappear in the box score and not live up to his potential. It does not appear the Jets are going to take any massive strives forward, indicating this could be a lost season for the third-year tight end.
Breakout Alert!
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Higgins had his coming out party against the Philadelphia Eagles catching five passes for 40 yards and two touchdowns. He led the team with 150 air yards while owning a 21 percent target share. The Bengals had him on the field for 79 percent of the team’s offensive snaps.
We could be watching one of the next great wide receivers break out right in front of our eyes. His recent workload is an indicator that the Bengals want to get him more involved in the offensive game plan. Combine that with the fact that he was a top-shelf prospect coming out of Clemson and it only took the third game of his career to produce, Higgins is on his way to breaking out in a massive way during his rookie season.
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