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For those who are not familiar with this article series, each week of the NFL season I will be bringing you analysis on a few fantasy football players who may bust or disappoint for fantasy football.
Managers should think twice before starting these players in their Week 1 lineups, or at least be setup for the fact that they may underperform.
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Fantasy Football Lineup Busts
Week 1 is an excellent opportunity to start the fantasy season on a positive note, so it is very important to get the ideal lineup set before kickoff.
That said, it isn't the end of the world if your studs bust in the season opener or don't perform up to expectations.
Fantasy managers shouldn't overreact after one game, because we always see players turn it up after a slow start. For example, Jonathan Taylor had three straight sub-par performances to start the 2021 campaign and finished as the overall RB1.
2021 Week 1 (PPR) Scores:
Michael Pittman Jr. - 5.9
Najee Harris - 5.9
Ezekiel Elliott - 5.9
Mike Evans - 5.4
James Conner - 5.3
Mark Andrews - 5
Aaron Rodgers - 3.3Aka - don't lose your mind after the 1st week of football or panic trade
— Nick Skrip (@P2WFantasy) September 7, 2022
Below will be some players that I expect to get off to a slow start in Week 1.
Should I Start Matt Ryan in Week 1?
Although the Texans ranked in the bottom-10 against the pass last season, Ryan could be in for disappointing fantasy production in his Colts debut. In what should be a rush-heavy game script, Ryan could be looking at limited passing volume in Week 1.
During the 2021 season, the Colts beat the Texans in both meetings with a combined score of 62-3. In one of those games, we saw Taylor run the ball 32 times.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see this type of workload once again as the Colts figure to be playing with the lead for the majority of the game.
With no upside for rushing stats, Ryan likely has an extremely low floor with his potential limited passing volume. He shouldn't be started in conventional 10-12 team formats, but he could be an option for those in deeper leagues. However, fantasy managers should temper their expectations.
Should I Start Breece Hall in Week 1?
The first running back off the board in the 2022 NFL Draft is in for a tall task ahead of his debut against the Baltimore Ravens. Hall will go up against the team that allowed the fewest rushing yards and second-fewest yards per carry last season.
Not only does this give him a murky outlook, but a negative game script for a rushing attack likely limits his upside. His backfield mate Michael Carter figures to get in on the action with what should be a more prominent role in passing situations, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see Hall get scripted out of this game.
The rookie out of Iowa State figures to get off to a slow start, but he should see his fantasy value increase as the season goes on. Fantasy managers need to have low expectations for Hall in Week 1.
Just because you took a player higher, doesn't mean they need to start for you every week.
Ex: Breece Hall (4th/5th rd ADP)
Rookie RB in a tough spot against Baltimore. Jets are 7-point underdogs. Michael Carter still has a role.
Don't be afraid to bench Hall in Week 1.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) September 4, 2022
Should I Start Ezekiel Elliott in Week 1?
It looks like it will be deja-vu from last season's Week 1 for fantasy managers rostering Elliott. The Cowboys faced the Tampa Buccaneers in the opener last year, where Zeke finished with 11 carries for 33 yards.
Elliott will open the season against that elite run defense once again, who allowed the third-fewest rushing yards last season. The Cowboys basically abandoned the run in their meeting last year, so that makes me think Tony Pollard will have a more significant role in this one given his strong pass-catching ability.
Mike McCarthy: Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard are "definitely a tandem." https://t.co/nSdEI6zhln
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) September 7, 2022
Elliott likely needs to find the end zone to salvage a potential lack of rushing production, which makes him a very risky play this week considering the Bucs surrendered the fifth-fewest rushing touchdowns a season ago.
In full-PPR formats, it wouldn't be the craziest idea to consider benching the four-time 1,000-yard rusher considering he has a limited role as a pass-catcher.
Should I Start Michael Thomas in Week 1?
Thomas returns to action after missing the entirety of the 2021 season, as well as most of 2020. A lot has changed since the last time Thomas was on the field, as he is surrounded by new quarterback Jameis Winston, new wide receivers Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry, as well as a new head coach.
The former overall WR1 will be thrown into the fire right away with a tough matchup against stud cornerback A.J. Terrell, who allowed the lowest completion percentage when targeted last season (39%).
In addition to this, the Atlanta Falcons’ secondary was much-improved as they finished 15th in passing yards given up.
Thomas could very well pick up right where he left off, but it is hard to count on that considering he hasn't had any game action with Winston.
He figures to be the top target in the passing game, but Olave, Landry, and Alvin Kamara also figure to get their fair share of looks in this one.
He isn't a must-bench option, but, proceed with caution. Given his draft price this season, fantasy managers likely have a couple of better options for Week 1.
Should I Start Amari Cooper in Week 1?
Cooper will make his Browns debut against the Carolina Panthers along with Jacoby Brissett who will be the starter for the first 11 games of the season. It is an extremely tough matchup for the veteran wideout, as the Panthers surrendered the fourth-fewest passing yards last season.
Cooper will likely see a ton of stud sophomore cornerback Jaycee Horn and Donte Jackson, so expectations should be tempered quite a bit.
A tough matchup and a potential shortage of volume make his outlook extremely worrisome, making him a high-risk option in lineups to open the season.
The Browns figure to have a run-heavy approach (ninth-most rushing attempts in 2021) with their two-headed monster of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt in the backfield, given that the Panthers have a rather mediocre run defense (15th in 2021) compared to a solid pass defense.
Brissett isn't a very wide receiver-friendly quarterback to have under center, as last year we saw Jaylen Waddle be much less productive with Brissett throwing him passes.
Fantasy managers can’t rely on high volume to offset inefficient play either, as Cooper wasn't much of a target hog last year. He saw 10+ targets in just three games last year despite playing in one of the league’s pass-happier offenses.
Cooper is an easy fade in Week 1.
Should I Start Cole Kmet in Week 1?
Kmet has been a very popular name as a sleeper leading up to the start of the season because of his path to a significant target share. However, the third-year tight end is in for a tough task in Week 1 against the San Francisco 49ers, who allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends last season.
Going back to last year’s matchup with the 49ers, Kmet had three catches for 24 yards on six targets.
In what could be a run-heavy game plan to offset the pass rush led by Nick Bosa, Kmet’s outlook isn't very encouraging this one.
Darnell Mooney figures to be first in line for targets from sophomore quarterback Justin Fields, so Kmet will be at best No. 2 in line for looks in a potential low-volume passing attack.
Given that we don't necessarily know what to expect from Fields as a passer just yet, it may be best to go into wait-and-see mode and leave Kmet on the bench given the bad matchup and the uncertainty of the Chicago passing game.
At best, he is a low-end TE1 option in Week 1.
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