RADIO
Dynasty fantasy football is a completely different animal than redraft formats when it comes to valuing players. Redraft fantasy owners must look at a given situation and make their best guess about a player’s outlook for an entire season, whereas dynasty owners need to determine if a situation has either improved or worsened for a player and how that will impact that player for the next few seasons. These situational changes occur all of the time in the NFL and are typically the result of an injury, a trade or a rookie that emerges.
Situations might rapidly change in the NFL, but player’s talent will usually remain consistent. Fantasy owners, especially in dynasty formats become attached to certain players due to their perceived talent. They see a collegiate highlight film and think that this player is the second coming of Barry Sanders, only for that player to play two snaps in their first NFL game. The merging of these two factors, talent and situation determine players’ overall dynasty value.
Stemming off the results from Week 1, here are a few players whose dynasty values have risen and fallen due to their performance and could be worthy buy or sell opportunities early in the season.
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Dynasty Buys
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Even though their game was well in-hand, the Rams featured Cooper Kupp throughout. He caught 4 of his 6 targets for 76 yards and even hauled in a touchdown from Jared Goff. Kupp was consistently open and demonstrated that even though he is not the most fleet of foot player in the NFL (ran a 4.62 40 yard dash); he can make plays when it counts. Kupp was on the field for the second most snaps of all the Rams wide receivers, playing 39 of a possible 65 snaps, so fantasy owners can expect him to be on the field frequently even in tighter contests. Kupp should have at least every week flex value in PPR leagues and if he continues to develop chemistry with Jared Goff, he could be an every week WR3 at minimum.
Updated Pick Value: 2nd Round 2018 Rookie Pick
Updated Player Trade Value: high-end RB Flex, WR3
Nelson Agholor (WR, PHI)
Seemingly back from the dynasty wasteland, Nelson Agholor has seemed to find a role as the slot receiver for the Eagles after the Jordan Matthews trade. Agholor played in 42 of 68 offensive snaps in week 1 (about 62% for those keeping score) and received eight targets when he was on the field. Aside from his impressive 58 yard touchdown, the fact that he hauled in another five passes demonstrates that Agholor has potentially turned the corner. Carson Wentz certainly does like to move the chains in a methodical manner, (79% of Wentz’s passes were less than 15 yards in week 1 according to Sharpfootballstats) and Agholor should be able to continue to be the beneficiary of some of those short-area targets. He should certainly be valued higher in PPR formats where he can at least be considered an every week flex until proven otherwise, but he will have some value in non-PPR leagues as well.
Updated Pick Value: 3rd Round 2018 Rookie Pick
Updated Player Trade Value: RB/WR flex
Dynasty Sells
Jamaal Williams (RB, GB)
So much for the talk of Williams eating into Ty Montgomery’s workload. Montgomery was the clear workhouse in Green Bay, playing 74 of 82 offensive snaps. The only time Williams was on the field was when Montgomery limped off for a few plays with an ankle injury. He did carry the ball twice of his six total snaps for nine yards, but don’t expect a ton of volume from Williams in the next few weeks. That’s not to say Williams does not have some value, he certainly does as the seemingly the handcuff to Montgomery at this point, but it certainly will take a hit if Montgomery continues to perform at the level he did against the Seahawks in week 1.
Updated Pick Value: 3-4th Round 2018 Rookie Pick
Updated Player Trade Value: Low-end RB/WR/TE flex
Jordan Howard (RB, CHI)
The ebbs and flows of the NFL are really amazing. While it was great that Jordan Howard scored a rushing touchdown early this past week against the Falcons, he also dropped the potential game winner in the 4th quarter. Howard did finish with 52 yards on 13 carries including that touchdown, so he should continue to be a valuable member of whatever the Bears offense ends up being in 2017. However, Howard’s performance waned when it was needed the most, and he also appears to be in a timeshare with electric rookie, Tarik Cohen. Howard out-snapped Cohen 38-28 in week 1, but that could change if Howard continues to struggle catching the football. Even though Howard will be heavily involved in early down work, don’t expect him to take the overwhelming majority of snaps for the foreseeable future. Instead of being an every week RB1 as some perceived, he should be considered an RB2 in all formats.
Updated Pick Value: 1st Round 2018 Rookie Pick plus 3rd or 4th round rookie pick
Updated Player Trade Value: High end WR2, high-end TE1
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
What was an all-around ugly day for the Bengals offense, save for AJ Green, and was supposed to be the coming out party for Joe Mixon, however the Ravens had other plans. The Bengals looked absolutely inept on offense and Mixon could be lumped into that group. He finished the game with 8 carries for just 9 yards, and simply couldn’t find any room to run behind the new-look Bengals offensive line. Not only could Mixon not find any running room, but he was in a full-fledged RBBC with Jeremy Hill and Giovanni Bernard. Bernard was the most effective runner for the Bengals finishing with 40 yards on 7 carries and adding a reception for 39 yards, but Hill started the game and played plenty as well. Mixon will have to prove that he is leaps and bounds ahead of both Hill and Bernard if he is to see consistent playing time going forward. The one bright spot for Mixon was that he did catch all three of his targets, but for just 15 yards. This could be a good buy-low opportunity for dynasty owners if there is still belief in Mixon’s talent after week 1.
Updated Pick Value: 1st Round 2018 Rookie Pick (back half of drafts)
Updated Player Trade Value: WR2, high-end TE1
For any dynasty or redraft questions, find me on Twitter @TheRealHalupka.
