Week 10 IDP Ranks, Streamers & IDP Trade Calls

Welcome back RotoBallers, to my weekly article about fantasy football IDP rankings. For those who are not familiar, every week I provide you with my IDP rankings and analysis broken down by position, along with some potential streamers.

Earlier this week, we addressed several of your general IDP questions. We also promised to get to some of your specific IDP trade questions and ideas in our rankings column. That promise is about to be fulfilled.

So without further ado, here are some of your IDP trade related questions and a lot of our answers.

IDP Reader Q&A - Trading

Trade Proposal 1:

• Team 1 Receives: Jalen Reagor
• Team 2 Receives: Darius Leonard

Analysis: Team 1 clearly had serious needs at the WR position, and that’s why they did this deal. They gave up a surefire stud LB for a risky WR. There is reason to believe that Team 1 could come out of this deal as a winner, however.

Reagor is a first-round draft pick who has started more than 70% of the Eagles' snaps in his past two games. That usage is promising, as is the fact Reagor is the only promising WR on Philly’s roster beyond Travis Fulgham. Given the Eagles’ dearth of WR options and the questions surrounding Zach Ertz, it doesn’t seem unreasonable to project Reagor as a top-36 WR for the rest of this year. While a WR3 isn’t an ideal trade return for the best defender in fantasy, the fact that most fantasy managers devalue defenders likely made it tough for Team 1 to get fair value for Leonard.

Now that we have explained why Team 1 could end up happy with this deal, let’s get to the winner of the trade. Team 2 is the winner, because they got the best defender in all of fantasy for a WR they likely weren’t ever going to start. Leonard gives Team 2 an edge at the LB position almost every week, and he is well worth this price tag.

• Trade Balanced or Unbalanced: Slightly Unbalanced
• Trade Winner: Team 2

Trade proposal 2:

• Team 1 Receives: Devin White, Michael Pittman Jr., and a late 2021 1st round pick
• Team 2 Receives: CeeDee Lamb and an early 2022 2nd round pick

Analysis: Devin White has shown himself to be a top-five fantasy LB this year, and he looks to be the most likely long-term challenger to Darius Leonard’s  throne as fantasy's highest scoring defender. White’s value is particularly high dynasty in setups, too. So, it makes some sense that Team 1 might prefer having an elite linebacker (White) and a potential WR2 (Michael Pittman Jr.) for the foreseeable future, instead of the talented CeeDee Lamb.

With that said, Team 2 wins this deal rather handily. Lamb has a realistic shot to be a top-five fantasy WR by the year 2022. A future top-five WR is worth more than a WR2 (Pittman Jr.) and an elite LB (White) unless you play in a Deep Defense IDP setup. If you play in a truly deep IDP league, White and Pittman Jr. could arguably be good return for Lamb.

Note that the draft picks here don’t swing the value of the trade much at all. A late 1st rounder and an early 2nd rounder don’t differ much in fantasy value, historically.

• Trade Balanced or Unbalanced: Balanced
• Trade Winner: Team 2 (unless in a very Deep Defense league)

Trade Proposal 3:

• Team 1 Receives: Nick Chubb, T.J. Watt, and Justin Herbert (1QB league).
• Team 2 Receives: Julio Jones, Aaron Donald, and Evan Engram

Analysis: This is a very balanced trade. To find a winner (if there is one), we will need to compare each man dealt in this six-player swap.

The first tier of this trade amounts to a top-ten RB (Chubb) being dealt for a top-five WR (Jones). Both of these players have struggled with injuries this year, and both have had dud games in which their teammates (Kareem Hunt and Calvin Ridley, respectively) have stolen significant touches from them. Each of these stars still has serious fantasy value, though. Jones has a higher ceiling and perhaps the higher floor, but Chubb holds incredible positional value at RB. Whether you prefer Chubb or Jones will ultimately come down to whether you need a starting RB or not…. My guess is most of you do.

The most interesting debate in this deal is Aaron Donald versus T.J. Watt. For fantasy purposes only, Donald has more value in leagues that force you to start a DT. Most leagues don’t force you to start a DT, though. In most leagues, players just have to start fantasy defensive linemen. Watt has a higher fantasy ceiling and floor in those Standard IDP leagues thanks to his coverage use and tackle rate.

As for Herbert versus Engram, you already know that Herbert is by far the better and more consistent fantasy asset of the two in 2020. However, because the TE position is so thin and the QB position is so deep, I could see someone trading Herbert to get Engram if they desperately needed a TE. Most people would trust and prefer Herbert over Engram if all else was equal, though.

When you break down and compare each of the players being dealt in this deal, Team 1 barely squeaks out a win. Overall, it is incredibly fair and likely fits the needs of each team.

• Trade Balanced or Unbalanced: VERY Balanced
• Trade Winner: Team 1

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Streamer of the Week: Romeo Okwara, Detroit Lions

Okwara made our Deep Waiver Adds column this week, thanks to the five sacks he has totaled over the past six games. The guy isn't flashy, but he has gotten a surprising 22 pressures for Detroit in eight games this year. The guy is a definite DL2 streamer this week, too, thanks to a great matchup in Washington.

The Washington offensive line has surrendered the second-most sacks in the NFL this season, with an 8.3% Adjusted Sack Rate, according to Football Outsiders. While the ratings for Washington's new left tackle Cornelius Lucas are promising, he has only played two games, and this line still surrendered two sacks and seven QB hits to a weak Giants pass rush last week. Alex Smith didn't look particularly alert or comfortable in that pocket, either, as he turned the ball over three times in less than four quarters of play.

Washington's offense should surrender several sacks to the Lions, and they could give up a couple of fumbles as well. That makes Okwara an exciting play in deeper IDP leagues.

DL Fade of the Week: Bradley Chubb, Denver Broncos

Chubb is a talented but relatively sack dependent fantasy asset right now. This season he has totaled more than four tackles only once, has totaled only one turnover total, and he has zero PDs. That level of sack reliance is troublesome for a guy going up against a team like Las Vegas this week.

Despite multiple injuries to their offensive line this season and a COVID strike that nearly took the whole unit out, the Raiders are allowing just 1.75 sacks per game. This efficiency is mostly thanks to the Las Vegas coaching staff's run-heavy play script and Derek Carr's quick reads. If the Raiders can get a healthier Trent Brown and Kolton Miller back (a big if), Carr could be even harder to pull down than he already is. That doesn't bode well for a pass rusher like Chubb.

Top-25 Fantasy Linebackers of the Week 

LB Streamer(s) of the Week: Tyrell Adams, Houston Texans

Adams has put up double-digit tackles in every game he has started, except for one. To make matters even better, Adams has notched 11+ tackles in three of his past four games. That’s incredible production for Houston’s new starting LB, especially since he has a very LB friendly matchup on tap this week.

Houston’s opponent this week (the Browns) is calling the second highest percentage of run plays in the NFL this season, keeping it on the ground for 49.87% of their offensive snaps. Consider that this run ratio could be even higher if Nick Chubb returns from an injury that has had him out since Week 4. If the Browns come close to running the ball 50% of the time in Week 10, Adams should again eclipse the 11-tackle milestone.

LB Fade of the Week: Micah Kiser, Los Angeles Rams

Kiser plays with a sound support system around him, and he has proven capable of being an LB1 in tackle premium IDP leagues. He is a flawed defender who is exceptionally reliant on tackles for his fantasy production, however. The former Virginia star has yet to prove he can be effective in coverage, and he hasn't given fantasy managers anything besides tackles since Week 2. Think about that for a moment. He hasn't gotten you a sack, PD, INT, TFL, FF, or an FR since Week 2. That spells a low ceiling right there, especially in Defense Premium leagues that value turnovers and big plays. To make matters even worse, the Rams are going against a very efficient and pass-heavy Seattle Seahawks offense in Week 10.

Russell Wilson throws the ball on 61% of his team's snaps this season while completing 71% of his passes and turning the ball over just 1.25 times per game. This sort of efficiency limits the ability of Rams defenders to make big plays. Even more troubling is Wilson's tendency to target his receivers outside the hash marks (55.9% of the time), which is a tendency that takes inside linebackers like Kiser out of a lot of plays.

With Kiser’s limitations in coverage and as a big play maker, Seattle’s booming but efficient passing attack poses a serious problem. Consider benching the Rams’ LB if you can afford to do so.

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Streamer of the Week: Harrison Smith, Minnesota Vikings

While it is true that Smith is no longer a no-question fantasy starter every week, the former Pro Bowler has taken his game up a level ever since his name was raised in trade talks before the deadline. For two weeks in a row now, Smith has been active and effective against both the passing and run game. That has led to him putting up starter quality fantasy numbers in both weeks. On top of that increased production, Smith has a particularly attractive matchup in Week 10 which makes him a terrific DB2 streamer.

The Bears are the fourth pass-heaviest team in the NFL this season, and they are the second pass-heaviest offense over the past three weeks. Despite all that volume, Chicago’s passing game hasn't been particularly explosive. In fact, only 28% of Nick Foles’ passes have traveled more than ten-yards past the line of scrimmage. That kind of high-volume but conservative passing approach plays directly into the strengths of a safety like Smith. Add to that the fact that the Bears offense is averaging the least amount of rushing yard per game in the NFL, and Smith should have ample opportunity to rack up TFLs and PDs this week.

DB Fade of the Week: Marlon Humphrey, Baltimore Ravens

Humphrey is coming off of the COVID list this week, and he missed over a week of practice due to his positive test. That isn't the reason we fade him here, however.

Humphrey’s second fade of this season has to do with his matchup this week. The New England Patriots are the third least pass-heavy offense in the NFL, with Cam Newton attempting more than 30 pass attempts only twice all season. Both of those 30+ attempt games came against bad secondaries and in games that amounted to shootouts. Baltimore’s secondary is not bad, and this game shouldn’t be a shootout. Instead, this game should be a plodding run-fest between two teams who have seen most of their offensive success come on the ground this season.

If both teams do as expected and deploy a run-heavy game plan in this one, that means there will be limited opportunities for all DBs (including Humphrey) to score fantasy points. Fade them all accordingly.

Declining Stock of the Week: Josh Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars

Jones has been a steady DB2 in most IDP formats this year, averaging nine tackles per game in the six games he was healthy. In Week 9, however, Jones saw his snap percentage drop to just 66%. That decline wasn’t due to injury, nor was it punishment for some team rule violation. Rather, the Jaguars purposefully sat Jones for 34% of its plays in Week 9 because the coaching staff wanted to give rookie safety Daniel Thomas more playing time.

While we only have one week of data to look at here, this safety rotation in Jacksonville doesn’t appear to be a flash in the pan or a one-week-wonder. Word out of Jacksonville is that the team likes what it has seen from Thomas, and will continue to give him opportunities. Be careful starting Jones until we see how this shakes out, as the rookie seems primed to continue eating into the veteran’s snaps.

Red Flag of the Week: Taylor Rapp, Los Angeles Rams

Rapp has been a consistent fantasy starter the entire time Jordan Fuller has been out with injury. Rapp also has a nice fantasy matchup this week against Seattle if he keeps getting the lion's share of the Rams' defensive snaps. If that happens, Rapp remains a top-ten DB in our ranks. There is cause for caution, however.

This week, the Rams are making roster moves in preparation for Jordan Fuller coming off of IR. If they activate Fuller, keep a close eye on how the Rams use him. When he was active earlier this year, he got most of the snaps next to John Johnson III, and Rapp's fantasy value tanked as a result. If the Rams go back to using Rapp on only 30% of their plays, his fantasy value again goes in the pooper. That's why we should keep an eye on Fuller and on any reports out of the Rams' offices this week. If Fuller comes off IR and is announced as a starter, Rapp is a much riskier play this week.

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