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What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find part two of our Week 10 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the second half of the Week 10 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part one of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Camus (@pfunk00).
Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
Editor's Note: New users that sign up on FantasyAces, make a $20 deposit, and enter any game will receive our full season NFL (or NBA) Premium Pass for free, a $59.99 value. Just email info@rotoballer.com with your new FantasyAces username - and boom, that's it! We will email you with your Premium pass.
Week 9 Matchup Analysis Recap
Greatest Hits: Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, DET), Jerick McKinnon (RB, MIN), Jordan Matthews (WR, PHI)
As predicted, Marvin Jones had an extremely rough time against a stingy Vikings pass defense. Jones caught only one pass for five yards in the overtime win, with Golden Tate and Eric Ebron dominating the receiving game. On the other side, Jerick McKinnon struggled in his first game back from injury. He ran seven times for eight yards on the day, and was outplayed by both Matt Asiata and Ronnie Hillman. Who knows how this backfield will shape out moving forward. Jordan Matthews was able to have a solid day against the Giants secondary, catching six passes for 88 yards in the loss.
Greatest Misses: Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN), Chris Ivory (RB, JAX), Dez Bryant (WR, DAL)
Though Kyle Rudolph did find the end zone in Week 9, it was his only reception of the day. He caught one pass, for one yard, and one TD. Fantasy owners were held in check with the TD, but can't be happy about the rest of those numbers. Looks like one Jaguars RB has separated himself from the rest. Chris Ivory ran wild on Sunday, rushing 18 times for 107 yards in the loss to Kansas City. He had a costly fumble at the goal line in the fourth quarter, but the 107 rushing yards is far and away the best game by any Jags RB this season. Dez Bryant couldn't follow up his 113-yard, TD performance in Week 8. Last week he caught only one pass five yards, as Dak Prescott looked to other receivers to find success. He will not force the ball to Dez like Tony Romo will.
Rams @ Jets - Sunday 11/13 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Lance Kendricks (TE, LA)
The 28-yard old TE has begun to make a name for himself this season in LA. Kendricks had his best receiving day of the year last week against Carolina, catching seven passes for 90 yards. However, this isn’t the first time he has found success this season. Kendricks has scored double digit points in five of eight games this season (PPR) with double digits in three straight games. Over those three games, he has seen his targets rise from eight, to nine, to twelve. This Jets team has given up the seventh most yards to the TE position, and the 13th most fantasy points on average to the position. With his increased usage in the offense, Kendricks will be a nice play this week.
Matchups We Hate
Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ)
Brandon Marshall isn’t matching the impressive receiving totals he put up last year, but he is still proving to be a useful fantasy asset. Over the past four weeks Marshall is averaging a healthy eight targets per game, but has only turned those into an average four catches for 56 yards per game with zero TDs. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has given Marshall a ton of attention in his time as the starter, but last game it was a different Marshall that led the team in receiving, Jalin Marshall. The Rams defense has been better of late at defensing opposing WRs, limiting the production of O’Dell Beckham Jr. and Kelvin Benjamin over their last two games. Unless Marshall starts turning his opportunities into more production, it will be another long day for fantasy owners.
Notable Players
Matt Forte (RB, NYJ)
Last week the Jets gave Forte only 13 touches, which means they lost on Sunday to Miami. Though Forte was efficient with his touches (92 yards rushing and a TD, one catch for five yards), he needs more for the Jets to win football games. In the Jets wins Forte averages 28 carries, compared to 14 in their losses. Last week Fitzpatrick left briefly with an MCL sprain, but should be good to go for this week. An injured Fitz should lead to more touches for Forte, but with how up-and-down the offense is who knows if they will give him the volume he needs. The Rams have allowed the seventh least fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, meaning the points will be tough enough to come by as it is.
Todd Gurley (RB, LA)
The 16 touches Gurley received last week against Carolina was his lowest amount in any game this season, but his 4.0 YPC was his second highest of the season (4.1, Week 6). The Panthers have a very good run defense (allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season), which will hopefully mean he improves against a softer run defense. The Jets have allowed the 14th most fantasy points to the position, but have only allowed an average 76.4 rushing yards per game. Gurley will need more than 16 touches with the way he’s been running this season to have a productive fantasy day. He will likely need to break his three game scoring drought to save his fantasy day.
Falcons @ Eagles - Sunday 11/13 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Jordan Matthews (WR, PHI)
If you’re looking for solid production from the WR position, find the player who’s up against Atlanta that week. This week, the Eagles welcome the Falcons and their horrid secondary into Philadelphia. The Falcons have given up the most fantasy points to the WR position this season, and were most recently torn apart by Mike Evans and the Buccaneers. Matthews is no Evans, but he is the top WR in this offense. Matthews has seen 25 targets over the past two weeks, turning that into 17 catches for 153 yards and a TD. The Eagles will undoubtedly need to pass to keep up with this potent offense, making Matthews a prime candidate for a big game on Sunday.
Darren Sproles (RB, PHI)
With the running game struggling behind the lead of Ryan Mathews, the team turned to Darren Sproles to right the ship. Over the past two weeks Sproles has totaled 36 touches, his highest number over a two-game span since Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2009 season while with San Diego. He has been efficient with his touches, rushing 28 times for 143 yards (5.1 YPC) and catching eight passes for 31 yards (3.9 YPR). With Sproles carrying the load in the backfield, expect his reception total to rise against a Falcons defense that has given up the most receiving yards to opposing RBs this season. Especially in PPR leagues, Sproles is a strong play this week.
Julio Jones (WR, ATL)
It has been a nearly impossible mission to limit the Falcons offense this season, with one of the main reasons being Julio Jones. Jones leads the league in receiving yards, and is on pace to crack the 1,700 yard mark. After not allowing a receiving TD for the first four weeks of the season, the Eagles secondary has been beatable over the past few weeks. They have allowed a receptions TD each week since the bye, and were just picked apart by Eli Manning and the Giants WRs. They have given up the 14th most fantasy points to the WR position overall this season. A secondary like this one will not be able to contain a world-class talent like Julio.
Matchups We Hate
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Though this secondary can be beatable by opposing WRs, the one thing they do very well is generate turnovers. This team is fifth in the league in sacks, sixth in INTs, and fourth in fumble recoveries. They have the fifth highest turnover differential (plus six) in the league. Matt Ryan will need to pick his spots very carefully if he wants to avoid mistakes, but this Eagles defense has at least one interception in each of the past four weeks. Ryan only has four picks on the season, and hasn’t thrown one in two weeks. Something has to give this week between his excellent play and the Eagles turnover rate. I think Ryan will make a few mistakes on Sunday.
Notable Players
Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL)
Freeman had a nice bounce back game last week, after not being able to find much running room during Week 8. Freeman rushed 17 times for 77 yards and caught two passes for 28 yards in the Falcons big win over the Buccaneers. Freeman has not been as effective as he was last season, but he has still put together a solid fantasy season in this potent Falcons offense. Tevin Coleman may return this week which would impact Freeman’s value, though he hasn’t been any better with Coleman out really. The Eagles have given up the 11th fewest fantasy points to the RB position, allowing an average 88 rushing yards to the position per game. Freeman has a shot at a solid week, but keep an eye on Coleman’s status leading up to game time.
Zach Ertz (TE, PHI)
Since returning from injury, Ertz and QB Carson Wentz have not been on the same page. From Week's 5-to-8, Ertz totaled nine catches, while failing to gain more than 37 yards in any contest. However, that all changed last week. Offensive coordinator Frank Reich said they wanted to get Ertz the ball more, and they did. Ertz caught all 8 of his targets for 97 yards last week against the Giants. Heading into this week, the Eagles want to get their big-bodied TE more involved in the red zone. In a game where passing will be the main way to attack the defense, Ertz has a great opportunity to break through and find the end zone for the first time this season.
Dolphins @ Chargers - Sunday 11/13 @ 4:05 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Jay Ajayi (RB, MIA)
In his chase to rush for 200-yards in three straight games, Ajayi fell just short rushing for ‘only’ 111 yards and a TD on 24 attempts (4.6 YPC) against the Jets. This week he will look to keep the good times rolling against a Chargers run defense that has given up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. That being said, they have not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season; a lot of the damage against them has come through the air. Ajayi is capable of receiving passes, though Damien Williams will also be in the mix on passing downs. With the running game looking as well as it has, expect another big week from Ajayi, especially with the passing game not quite performing up to snuff yet.
Melvin Gordon (RB, SD)
Melvin Gordon has been the all-in-one back the Chargers need this season after Danny Woodhead went down early in the year. Gordon is averaging 25 touches per game this season, and is fresh off his best performance of the season. Last week he rushed 32 times gaining 196 yards (6.1 YPC) with a TD, while also catching four passes for 65 yards. With 11 TDs in nine games, Gordon is likely to find the end zone again this week against a Dolphins defense who have allowed the sixth most rushing yards in the league.
Matchups We Hate
Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA)
The Dolphins may have beaten the Jets last week, but it wasn’t because of their passing attack. QB Ryan Tannehill completed 17-of-28 passes for only 149 yards, the third time in the past five games he has failed to throw for 200 yards. This level of production leaves little for Jarvis Landry and co., who have struggled to find consistency this season. With Jason Verrett out for the season things may look good for these WRs, but with Joey Bosa now in and causing backfield disruptions, Tannehill won’t have a cake walk on Sunday. He will need to up his game for Landry and the other WRs on the roster to have productive days.
Notable Players
Tyrell Williams (WR, SD)
With Travis Benjamin likely to sit on Sunday, Tyrell Williams will enter the game as the de facto WR1 in the offense. Unfortunately for Williams, he has also been hobbled this week while dealing with a knee injury. If the knee injury bothers him during the game we could see more of Dontrelle Inman, but if he is in fact healthy it could be a huge game for Williams. The Dolphins defense has given up the seventh most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, meaning this offense will have plenty of room to operate.
Antonio Gates (TE, SD)
Though Hunter Henry was the San Diego TE to own for a few weeks, Antonio Gates has returned and looked good over his past few games. Over the past three weeks, Gates has averaged five receptions for 49 yards with two TDs over that span. He has seen no less than nine targets in each of those games. As long as he can stay healthy and on the field, Gates will be in line for yet another solid season. Miami has allowed the 12th fewest fantasy points to the TE position, but have not faced many offenses that feature the TE position like the Chargers do.
49ers @ Cardinals - Sunday 11/13 @ 4:25 PM EST
Matchups We Love
David Johnson (RB, ARI)
Fresh off of the Bye Week, the Cardinals will look to get back in the winner’s circle against a divisional foe, the 49ers. This matchup could not be any better for stud RB David Johnson. San Fran has given up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, allowing 32 attempts for 174 yards per game. Johnson had his worst rushing day of the year during Arizona’s last game, but more than made up for it in the receiving game catching seven passes for 84 yards. He may not be the only Cardinals RB to have a big game on Sunday with how poor this defense is at stopping the run. Johnson can run, catch, and block with the best of them; expect a huge game from #31 this week.
Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)
The Cardinals leading WR has a great chance to find success against a porous 49ers secondary. San Fran has given up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, and were already owned by Fitz once this season. In Week 5 Fitz caught 6-of-8 targets for 81 yards and two TDs, in a game where the offense was led by Drew Stanton. Fitz has at least nine targets in each of the past three weeks, operating in the slot as Carson Palmer’s go-to WR. He should be in your starting lineup every week he is healthy and on the field.
J.J. Nelson (WR, ARI)
J.J. Nelson has risen in the WR ranks this season, passing Michael Floyd (inconsistency, injuries) and Jaron Brown (injuries) on the depth chart to earn a starting spot in the Cardinals lineup. Before the bye week he was on fire; catching 11 passes for 163 yards and two scores during the two weeks leading up to their week off. His 19 targets over that span rank him second on the team behind WR1 Larry Fitzgerald, though he did have one more than Fitz during Week 8 (12-to-11). The 49ers have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, and were just torched by WR2 Michael Thomas of the Saints. If you take a flyer on someone this week, let it be Nelson.
Matchups We Hate
Carlos Hyde (RB, SF)
Carlos Hyde is expected to return to action this week, after missing the teams past two games while dealing with a shoulder injury. Arizona presents a difficult matchup for the injured RB; they have allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. One thing Hyde does have going for him is that earlier in the season when the 49ers and Cardinals faced off, Hyde was able to have a productive day. He rushed 22 times for 78 yards and a score, while adding six catches for 36 yards. San Fran will feed Hyde the game flow, making him a reliable option when healthy. However, a not 100% Hyde mixed with a hard divisional matchup makes this one game to avoid as a Hyde owner.
Notable Players
Quinton Patton (WR, SF)
Though the Cardinals have allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points to the WR position, Quinton Patton may make for a sneaky play this week. Since Colin Kaepernick took over as the starting QB in Week 6, Patton has led the team in targets with 20 over three games. His last game was his best; he caught 6-of-9 targets for 106 yards in the loss to New Orleans. With a similar game flow expected this week against Arizona, Patton could be a good play especially in PPR formats with the 49ers needing to pass to keep up.
Cowboys @ Steelers - Sunday 11/13 @ 4:25 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)
The Dallas Cowboys are the best team in the NFC this season, but heading into Sunday the Steelers are favored. Why? At home, the Steelers are a dominating force. In home games the Steelers average 29 PPG this season (3-and-1 record), compared to 18 on the road (1-and-3 record). Big Ben is no different; at home he has a 12:2 TD:INT ratio, compared to 5:5 on the road. Dallas has limited opposing QBs this season, allowing the 11th fewest fantasy points to the position. However, with how dominant Pittsburgh has been at home this season you have to start Roethlisberger and expect big numbers.
Antonio Brown (WR, PIT)
When Big Ben is going strong, Antonio Brown becomes an even more dominating force on the field. Brown hasn’t been on the same insane pace he was last season, but he has still been one of the top fantasy WRs again this season. Brown is fresh off of two-straight seven catch, 11 target performances against two solid defenses in New England and Baltimore. Dallas has allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, and have yet to allow anyone to eclipse the century mark. That being said, the Steelers are too powerful of a team at home to be stopped. Expect a big game from Brown; he may be the first to top 100 yards against them.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Zeke has been a dominating force rushing behind the best offensive line in the league. He has rushed for a league-leading 891 yards through eight games with seven TDs. With no competition for touches, Elliott has been able to have huge games; his 157 yards against the Packers was particularly impressive, since at that time they had allowed the least amount of fantasy points to opposing RBs. This week he gets the Steelers defense, which has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. As per usual, fire up Elliott in your lineups with extreme confidence.
Matchups We Hate
Le’Veon Bell (RB, PIT)
Another case of love the player, hate the matchup for Le’Veon Bell. Bell is one of the most talented RBs in the league, but this week draws a tough matchup against Dallas. The Cowboys have given up the second fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season, limiting them to an average 17 carries for 74 yards per game. Since his return from suspension, Bell has been right on par with those averages, with 17 carries for 75 yards per game. However, what he has done in the receiving game has been much more impressive. He has averaged seven receptions for 57 yards per game. Bell acting as a duel threat will keep fantasy owners happy, but this matchup is far from ideal.
Notable Players
Dez Bryant (WR, DAL)
We’ve seen the highs and lows of Dez Bryant over the past two weeks since his return from injury. One week he gains over 100 yards and a TD, the next he puts up a one catch, 19 yard performance. The biggest difference in those two games has been his targets. In his huge game he had 14 targets, compared to last week when he only had four. QB Dak Prescott will not force the ball his way if he’s not open, and as long as the Cowboys keep on winning no one will question Bryant’s usage. Pittsburgh has allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, meaning Prescott will take whatever he can get in the passing game. Bryant needs Tony Romo to return for him to regain WR1 status, but with Prescott at the helm Bryant’s usage will vary from game to game.
Seahawks @ Patriots - Sunday 11/13 @ 8:30 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)
Seattle may have given up the fourth least amount of fantasy points to the TE position this season, but no TE in the league can do what Gronk can. Over his past four games Gronk has totaled 21 receptions on 27 targets for 473 yards and three TDs, which averages out to five receptions for 118 yards per game. Gronk is a machine. With Brady at QB firing on all cylinders like he is, it will be nearly impossible for any team to slow them down, even a talented defense like Seattle’s will have major troubles.
C.J. Prosise (RB, SEA)
This Seattle running game was absolutely non-existent against the Bills last week. Christine Michael was limited to five carries for one yard, and did not catch a pass. Prosise wasn’t much better, rushing three tims for nine yards while adding one reception for six yards. Prosise out-snapped Michael 26-to-18 on the day, and apparently impressed head coach Pete Carrol enough (or Michael disappointed so much) that he has said Prosise has earned a bigger role moving forward. The Patriots have allowed the eighth most receiving yards to opposing RBs this season, which plays right into his strengths. In a game expected to be dominated by the pass more than the run, expect Prosise to out-snap Michael once again.
Matchups We Hate
Julian Edelman (WR, NE)
One player who has not seen his stats increase with the return of Tom Brady has been his favorite WR, Julian Edelman. Since Brady’s return in Week 5, Edelman has averaged six receptions per game, but for only 41 yards. He has one TD over those four games, and only has one game with more than five catches and 37 yards. Prior to this season, his past 16 games with Brady saw him put up solid WR1 numbers. Many fantasy owners expected this to continue upon his return this season, but the results just haven’t been there. This week against the Seattle secondary, things will have a tough time getting going; they have given up the ninth fewest fantasy points to the WR position. You’re likely playing him if you own him, but consider benching Edelman if you have other solid options.
Notable Players
LeGarrette Blount (RB, NE)
Blount has led the Patriots rushing attack all season long, which hasn’t changed upon the return of Brady. He has been a TD machine, with nine in eight games so far this season. He has scored in four straight games. This week he will have his issues against a Seahawks front seven that is limiting opposing RBs to 3.5 YPC. They have given up the ninth fewest points to opposing RBs this season, though they have been hit hard in the run game over the past three weeks. Blount will have to rely on a short TD or two to save his fantasy day, which is likely given how well this Patriots offense is moving the football.
Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA)
Graham is coming off his finest game of the season on Monday night against Buffalo. Graham caught all eight of his targets for 103 yards and two scores, both of which were beautiful one-handed grabs in the end zone with defenders draped over him. Graham has quickly become one of the top TE options in the league, with at least eight targets in five of the past six games. The Pats have not faced a TE of Graham’s caliber all season long, and in a game where the Seahawks will need to pass to keep up Graham will be a solid play.
