RADIO
Depending on the type of league you’re in, there are only three to four weeks left in the fantasy football regular season. If you’re sitting pretty at 10-0, 9-1, 8-2 or even 7-3, you probably have little to worry about, as the playoffs are basically a guarantee for you. For the other 80 percent of you who are locked in a dogfight for one of the final playoff spots, there is no more room for error.
The decisions you make down the stretch of the season may haunt you for the entire offseason if they don’t go well. We’re here to help make sure that doesn’t happen. Using a combination of statistical trends, matchups and gut feeling, I’ve compiled a list of players who are likely to have very big weeks and others who are likely to fall flat.
Potential Booms of the Week
Quarterbacks:
Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals: This isn’t the greatest matchup on paper, as the Bengals have held the last three QBs they faced to 13.7 fantasy points or fewer. However, Carson Palmer has been a Top 5 QB all year and will be all fired up to stick it to his old team. My gut says Palmer has a monster game.
Derek Carr, QB, Raiders: The second year quarterback has three consecutive games of 300 or more passing YDs, 13 TDs in his last four games and at least 17 fantasy points in each of the last four weeks. He’s facing a Lions defense that has allowed an average of 20 fantasy points per game to QBs.
Running Backs:
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: With just a single 100-yard plus performance this season and only three TDs, Lynch has not given fantasy owners what they hoped for when they selected him in the first round. There’s still time left for him to close strong, and at home against an awful San Francisco defense is a great place to start.
Latavius Murray, RB, Raiders: It has been a solid season so far for the young Raiders RB, and he has a gift matchup on Sunday against the Lions. The Lions have allowed multiple rushing TDs on four occasions this season and have surrendered 100 plus rushing YDs in three of their last five games.
Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers: Have you seen the Redskins running defense over the last few weeks? They’ve given up 833 rushing YDs and three TDs over the last five weeks to RBs. Meanwhile, Jonathan Stewart is coming off of one of his best performances of the season against a much stouter Tennessee defense.
Wide Receivers:
Amari Cooper, WR, Raiders: I’m obviously all in on the Raiders this week, and why not? The Lions defense has been awful for most of the season and the Raiders have a dangerous offense. With Carr slinging the rock the way he has been, Amari Cooper is due for another big game soon, and this week’s matchup looks like it could be the one.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills: If there’s one thing to bet on this week, it’s that the Patriots are going to drop huge points on the Bills, just as they did in Week 2. That means the Bills will have to throw the ball, which is good news for Sammy Watkins. The Patriots allowing at least 161 receiving YDs to WRs over their last five weeks is also good news for the second-year wide-out
Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: Everything seems to be lining up for a big time Dez Bryant performance. Tony Romo is back at QB, the Cowboys are in desperation mode and the Miami Dolphins have given up at least one receiving TD in all but one game this season. Over the last five weeks, they’ve been torched by the position for 751 YDs and seven TDs.
Tight Ends:
Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys: Romo’s return can only mean good things for one of his all-time favorite targets, Jason Witten. His only two TDs of the season came with Romo throwing him the ball in Week 1, and though the Dolphins have only allowed three TDs to TEs this season, they’ve really only faced one of any notable caliber: Rob Gronkowski in Week 8; he went off for 113 YDs and a TD in that one.
Defenses:
Carolina Panthers: The Panthers have been as steady as they come on defense this season and this week’s home matchup against the Redskins looks enticing. Before toasting the Saints defense last week, the Redskins offense had surrendered at least seven fantasy points to defenses in five of the previous six weeks.
Potential Busts of the Week
Quarterbacks:
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins: Hopefully you’ve been able to move on from Tannehill in what was supposed to be a breakout year. For those who haven’t dropped him, you’d be wise to leave him on the bench. Over the last four weeks, the Cowboys have held QBs to 12.1 fantasy points per game. The last QB to top 20 points against the Cowboys was Tom Brady in Week 5.
Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: Jay Cutler has put together a nice season after people were ready to ship him away during last offseason. After topping 17 points in each of the last six games, it would be tough not to go back to the well, but Denver’s defense has held QBs to an average of 10.4 fantasy points this season.
Running Backs:
Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers: Easily one of the biggest busts in fantasy this season, Eddie Lacy is likely stashed away on your bench – leave him there. He has lost his starting job, he has only two TDs this season and has topped 50 rushing YDs just twice. With scarcity at RB being what it is, owners may have no choice but to plug him in and hope he steals a goal line TD. Just keep in mind that the Vikings have only given up four rushing TDs this season and only one in the last five weeks.
Melvin Gordon, RB, Chargers: Danny Woodhead is also included in this for non-ppr leagues. As far as Melvin Gordon, he has yet to score a TD heading into Week 11, has not had a single 100-YD game, and has been over 50 YDs rushing just once since Week 3.
Wide Receivers:
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans: Overall the Jets defense against wide receivers has been middle of the pack and DeAndre Hopkins has been nothing short of a beast this season. It’s likely that you don’t have any better options anyway, but Hopkins will be defended by Darrelle Revis on Sunday, so temper expectations.
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Chiefs: I feel bad for continually putting Jeremy Maclin on the busts list, but he has been a major disappointment this season and has done very little over the last six weeks to instill confidence in his fantasy owners (one TD, 185 YDs). San Diego also has a surprisingly good passing defense and hasn’t given up a TD to a receiver in two weeks.
Tight Ends:
Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks: Another fantasy disappointment, Jimmy Graham hasn’t scored a TD since Week 3. In addition to not consistently seeing enough targets, Graham also faces a 49ers team that has only surrendered three TDs to the position and zero since Week 6.
Defenses:
Minnesota Vikings: Don’t get cute. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers may be struggling on offense, and the Vikings defense has been good this year, but let’s be serious. Defenses don’t usually score big points on Green Bay.
Buffalo Bills: I’m predicting the Bills get toasted on Monday night, and it’s not really that much of a limb to go out on. They were in the negatives in Week 2 against the Patriots, so expect a similar performance in New England this time around.
Diamonds in the Rough:
When the fantasy football gods give you lemons, we’re here to help you make lemonade. Here is a list of some emergency plays this week.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions: There’s a good chance he’s on your waiver wire or wasting away on your bench. Stafford has been better of late (nine TDs in last four games) and is facing a weak Raiders defense.
Darren Sproles, RB, Eagles: With Ryan Mathews still not cleared to play this week, Sproles should be in line for a few extra touches.
Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Panthers: The Redskins have been awful on defense and Ted Ginn Jr. gets enough targets from Cam Newton to warrant a flier start.
Eric Ebron, TE, Falcons: If you have a tight end facing the Raiders, start him. It’s that simple.
Atlanta Falcons: Indianapolis has been very kind to defenses, and without Andrew Luck, they could become even kinder.
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