Week 11 IDP Ranks, Streamers & Preseason DB Sleepers Review

Earlier this week in our IDP Waivers column, we laid out plan to go back over our IDP preseason predictions with a fine-tooth comb over the next few weeks. The hope here is to help our readers determine what preseason darlings are still worthwhile and which ones you can safely dump.

These look-backs will be spread out over multiple articles, and they started with an analysis of our Rookie Defender Rankings from back in August.

Today we move onto our second look-back, an analysis of our pre-season Defensive Back Sleeper picks. Below you will see our top-five DB sleepers from this pre-season, as well as an analysis for each of those picks. If you want to skip that and get to the rankings, do so knowing you risk missing out on a ton of impressive bragging!

My Preseason Defensive Back Sleepers

1. Jeremy Chinn (S), Carolina Panthers

I don't have to explain this one to anyone who reads my columns. Chinn has been a favorite of mine all year. I even put the Panthers' rookie inside of my top-15  DB ranks right before the season started. The Southern Illinois alum has outplayed even my high expectations, though.

Our hope with Chinn was that he would play a lot at linebacker but maintain fantasy eligibility at DB, and he has done that. That role has led to a very safe weekly fantasy floor for Chinn. He has also shown DB traits that should continue to improve, adding big play potential to his already high tackle floor.

Despite most rankers leaving Chinn outside of their top-30 fantasy DBs to start the season, this pick was an absolute hit. The rookie is a stud, and is a fantasy starter in ALL formats already.

Hit or Miss: Hit

2. Kyle Dugger (S), New England Patriots

As we explained in our IDP Waivers column this week, we had Dugger pegged as a definite boom-or-bust fantasy option. We knew he could struggle to earn playing time on a veteran Patriots Defense that is led by a notoriously cautious coach. We also knew he had the size and athleticism to switch between the LB and DB positions in the NFL, granting him dual eligibility in fantasy.

As far as whether this pick has panned out or not, if you asked me that question a week ago, you would get a resounding "no" as an answer. In Week 10, the situation changed a bit. Against the Ravens, Dugger saw a significant uptick in playing time and performance, which led to some rare compliments from Coach Belichick. With starter minutes and 12-tackles under his belt from last week, Dugger’s stock is headed up.  This pick has been a miss for us most of the season. There is a chance it still pans out, though.

Hit or Miss: Miss… for now.

3. Emmanuel Moseley (CB), San Francisco 49ers

Despite Moseley not appearing on many top-50 DB lists this pre-season, we had him pegged as a possible top-ten fantasy corner thanks to his projected volume and tackling ability. For the most part, we were right on with that prediction.

When healthy, Moseley has been the top CB for the 49ers with Richard Sherman out of commission. He is averaging over four tackles (an concrete floor for a CB) and one PD per game. That puts him squarely in the top-ten CB conversation for fantasy purposes.

Hit or Miss: Hit

4. Marcus Maye (S), New York Jets:

Back in August, we viewed Maye as the most logical defender to inherit the all-purpose role Jamal Adams left open on the Jets. On a defense without playmakers, he was the most likely player to get the big plays that someone had to collect. We had him as a stable DB2.

Early in the season, this pick looked like a resounding hit for us. Over the Jets' first three games, he was a top-three fantasy DB in various formats. Maye’s hot start has cooled off significantly, however. Since Week 3, the Florida product has only two fantasy-relevant performances. Considering that Maye can’t get another big game in against the Bills this year, it is safe to wonder how often he will qualify as a DB2 the rest of the way.

Hit or Miss: Hit… for now.

5. Carlton Davis (CB), Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It may appear at first glance that Davis never should have qualified as a 2020 sleeper, since his NFL and fantasy performance in 2019 was so promising. Davis did qualify as a sleeper coming into this season, though. That's because a vast majority of prominent IDP rankers had Davis outside of their top-30 fantasy DB rankings. Davis was being ranked as a DB4 in most circles, and we had him projected as a high-tier DB2. Thus, he qualified as a sleeper.

This year Davis has exceeded everyone’s expectations in fantasy. He is one of the two best CBs in all of fantasy and arguably should be seen as the top-overall guy at that position. He sits tied for third in the NFL in INTs, has at least two PDs in half of his games this season, and is averaging over four tackles per game. His floor and ceiling are reliable, considering how difficult it can be to get a fantasy-relevant CB.

Hit or Miss: Massive Hit

As you can see, we were pretty successful with our pre-season DB sleepers this year. If only that luck would bleed over into other facets of my life, like when I am picking out my hairpieces or changing my socks at the gym…. No matter how hard I try to avoid him, the same guy keeps asking to smell my feet.

Anyway, that's our first week of IDP reflection. We will be back next week with a look at our pre-season LB Sleepers and my IDP Busts picks. Until then, enjoy this week's rankings!

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Streamer of the Week: Sheldon Richardson, Cleveland Browns

Richardson was one of our first weekly streamers this season and a dark horse pre-season favorite. Accordingly, the former Jet is having a fantasy-relevant rebound in 2020.

Though he is often ranked behind defensive tackles like Grady Jarrett, Richardson has handily outplayed several more prominent fantasy DTs this season. The Missouri product already has four games with at least a half-sack, and three games with at least six tackles. Richardson's production, talent, and place playing next to Myles Garrett are all reasons to believe he can continue to be a top-ten fantasy DT the rest of this season. His matchup this week is particularly encouraging, too.

Richardson’s Week 11 opponent, the Eagles, have allowed the most sacks in the NFL this year (35). They are also fourth-worst in Adjusted Sack Rate, according to Football Outsiders. While this line did get Lane Johnson back recently, their blocking still isn't strong and Carson Wentz still likes to improvise himself into sacks and fumbles. Both of those factors spell a premium matchup for Richardson and Garrett this week.

DL Fade of the Week: Josh Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars

While you have to love the talent of Allen, and the odds of him becoming a double-digit sack artist for years are still high, his 2020 has been all kinds of disappointing. Credit injuries or a lack of talent around him, but Allen has not done what many hoped he would after a promising rookie performance last year. Though brighter days are ahead, this week is not likely to be one of them.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have surrendered the least sacks in the NFL this year. Their blocking luck is likely thanks to a variety of factors. Big Ben's strong frame and improvising skills are notoriously hard to sack. The Steelers' offensive line has also had an excellent rebound season, aided both by Roethlisberger's mobility and a power run game that is doing enough to keep defenses honest most of the time.

Given that the Steelers are surrendering just 1.11 sacks per game and are likely to be up early in this game, Allen's bounceback shouldn't start this week. Hold off at least one more week.

Top-25 Fantasy Linebackers of the Week 

LB Streamer(s) of the Week: Christian Kirksey, Green Bay Packers

We have written about Kirksey several times this season, including in this week's Waiver column. When he is healthy, he is a force in tackle-premium fantasy leagues. He appears to be healthy now, and he has a nice matchup this week.

As we stated last week, the Colts are one of the more run-heavy units in the NFL. They also like to involve their RBs and TEs a lot in the passing game. Both of these factors spell an ideal matchup for a guy like Kirksey. Kirksey won’t rush the passer, but he stays on the field whether it’s a rushing or passing down. Expect him to clean up on tackles when Phillip Rivers dumps the ball short repeatedly to his backs and TEs.

LB Fade of the Week: Kyzir White, Los Angeles Chargers

White started the season hot, but he has put up four straight mediocre fantasy performances recently. That streak should go up to five this week, against a poor Jets offense.

While the Jets may seem like a great matchup on paper, their offensive inefficiency can actually work against fantasy LBs. The reason for this is two-fold. First, the Jets run the third-fewest offensive plays per game in the NFL. That means there are fewer opportunities for opponents to get tackles and big plays against them. The second issue is that the Jets are always playing from behind, meaning they can't commit to the run game and often have to throw the ball a lot. Since the Jets don’t throw to their TEs or RBs much, that means even fewer fantasy opportunities for LBs.

Look for the Jets and Joe Flacco to get behind early and have to throw a lot. A vast majority of those throws should go to Denzel Mims and Jamison Crowder. White shouldn’t be asked to cover either of those players, and thus he should be faded this week.

LB to Watch of the Week: Isaiah Simmons, Arizona Cardinals

Simmons has been a massive fantasy disappointment so far this season. Clearly, a lot of that has to do with how he has been used and the playing time he has been given. The talent is still there, though.

Earlier this week we warned fantasy managers not to rely on Simmons in 2020, predominantly because of his lack of playing time. That warning came before the Cardinals’ coaching staff admitted that they were misusing Simmons, however. The most recent reports out of Arizona now indicate that the Cards’ coaching staff has realized they need to use Simmons more and that they have said they will do so immediately. If that actually happens, Simmons could immediately turn into a top-15 fantasy LB.

While I am too nervous to play Simmons this week against Seattle because we haven't seen him get enough playing time yet, I am excited to hear he could be utilized more. If he were to take on an 80% snap share for the rest of this season, Simmons has the talent to be a weekly fantasy starter in deeper leagues.

Top-25 Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Streamer of the Week: Kamren Curl, Washington Football Team

If you haven’t heard of Kamren Curl, you aren’t alone. The Arkansas alum was viewed by many as a fringe prospect in this year’s NFL Draft, and he had to wait until the seventh round to hear his name called. He was, and still is, far from a household name.

Despite his lack of pedigree, Curl has been a revelation when he plays 100% of Washington’s snaps. In the two games that he has gotten that level of opportunity, Curl collected 20 tackles and two sacks. That’s good for an average of ten tackles and one sack per game. While that sample size is obviously far too small to rely on, Curl’s film (which shows excellent effort and instincts) and his production as a starter mean he is worth playing in fantasy when he has a good matchup… and this week he has a very good matchup.

The Bengals are the eighth pass-heaviest offense in the NFL this season, and they rank third in offensive plays run per game. That kind of volume spells massive fantasy opportunities for pass rushers and defensive backs. To make things even better, the Bengals have allowed the second-most sacks (32) in the league this season. That poor pass protection is appealing, given that Curl has shown he can blitz and bring down the QB.

With a high target floor and the possibility of getting at least one sack, Curl is a viable starter in all formats this week. Consider him a mid-tier DB2 who could finish as a top-ten defensive scorer if all goes well.

DB Fade of the Week: Malcolm Butler, Tennessee Titans

Butler has had a rejuvenating season so far in 2020, exceeding all expectations in coverage and fantasy. He has a poor matchup this week, however.

Butler has lined up out wide in coverage on 88.6% of his plays this year. However, Lamar Jackson only throws 10.3 passes outside of the hash marks each game. That means that even if Jackson were to send every one of his outside targets towards Butler, the former Patriot would still only see ten targets. That is a low target share for a fantasy CB ranked in the top-ten of many Week 11 lists.

To make matters worse, the Titans have only brought Butler down as a pass rusher once all season. That means he has minimal chance of getting you a sack or a TFL. You’ll need a sack or TFL from Butler if his target share is as limited as we expect it to be, though.

With no pass rush upside and a low projected target count this week, Butler should be faded much harder than he has been on many lists for Week 11.

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