RADIO
This isn't just one of the best weeks of the year for NFL fans, it's also a great time for college football. I say this because soon we'll be talking about rookies potentially making an impact through the fantasy playoffs. Those players were in the midst of rivalry games and bowl talk this time a year ago, just as this year's incoming draft class is about to do. Even if you aren't a big fan of the college game, you might want to keep an eye out on the future stars of 2018 and beyond.
As an expert ranker for RotoBaller and FantasyPros, I'll put my own personal rankings out on the table for you here and show you how they stack up against the consensus of the other 100+ experts at FantasyPros. Each week, I'll list my Top 10 per position, plus a few notable players that have risen or fallen in my rankings more than the expert consensus this week. In other words, it's where I zig when the others zag.
Note: all rankings are for standard leagues and all opinions are my own. If you have questions, comments, or incoherent ramblings related to fantasy sports, hit me up on Twitter @pfunk00 to continue the conversation.
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Week 12 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis
My Top 10
Will an Achilles injury that has held Tom Brady out of practice prevent him from lighting it up against the Dolphins? Does a Thanksgiving turkey love the holiday season? Both are a resounding, rhetorical no. Aside from the obvious, I've also slid Cam Newton all the way up to sixth this week. Greg Olsen is back and finally gives him a reliable target that's been missing from the red zone.
Jared Goff has a tough end-of-year schedule, but might catch a break this week. The Saints are a shocking eighth-ranked defense, including pass defense, and have been far from the typical pushover for opposing QBs. This week, however, they could be without their best corner in Marshon Lattimore, who is nursing an ankle injury. Ken Crawley and Kenny Vaccaro are also on the injury report and could leave the Saints depleted in the secondary. Missing Robert Woods doesn't help, but Goff will still get his by targeting the rest of his weapons. He is suddenly a low-end QB1.
Deviation from expert consensus
It's too late for post-Thanksgiving day analysis in a sit-start column, but let me just point out that Dak Prescott now has zero touchdowns and five interceptions in the last three games. If you started him, that was some wishful thinking. Do not consider putting him in your lineup the rest of the season until Zeke returns.
Jacoby Brissett already has a great shot to outproduce Prescott, but I do believe Tennessee's defense will be in the giving spirit. They're only 19th in overall pass defense, but they've allowed the second-most passing touchdowns. The Colts just don't have a reliable run game, so I expect him to pass it 35+ times--something he's done four times already this year.
Week 12 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis
My Top 10
Not much changes in the RB landscape except that Carlos Hyde reappears after the bye. There isn't a player on this list that I'd feel less confident about using as an RB1, but that says more about the outlook at that position than anything else. Seattle has held its last three opponents under 100 yards rushing and ranks as a top-10 run defense. Injuries in the secondary will make them more susceptible in the pass game, but that won't help Hyde. He isn't a great bet to score either, having only done so in two games this season. That said, he's averaging about 20 touches per game since C.J. Beathard took over and there aren't any other backs behind him that can say the same.
Deviation from expert consensus
Adrian Peterson is a tricky case. As we discussed on the podcast, in the two wins he's been a part of, AP rushed for a combined 293 yards with two TD. In the three losses, he's totaled 76 yards and no TD. I don't expect Arizona to beat Jacksonville, but that doesn't mean it won't be close enough for game script to allow Peterson to be effective. On the one hand, the Jags haven't allowed a 100 yards rushing in the last four games. On the other, they're only averaging 21 points per game on offense since the bye, Leonard Fournette has a gimpy ankle, and they face a fairly good Arizona defense. I can't say I absolutely love Peterson this week, but I think he's worth a shot as a flex play.
Samaje Perine and Jamaal Williams are two rookies who have inherited the starting job by default. Let's not forget that each was the third choice on their respective teams and it took a pair of injuries for each to get a shot. Perine put up numbers last week, but I don't believe he has much going for him other than opportunity. Williams is averaging 3.2 yards per carry and now faces the new Steel Curtain in a hostile environment. The way the Packers offense has looked without Aaron Rodgers, you can't be blamed for benching anyone on that team.
Week 12 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis
My Top 10
It feels as if Julio Jones has been too high on this list every single week, which is probably the case. The breakout I predicted last week didn't happen and I'm not sure it will at all. Jones is stuck at one touchdown, still has just two 100-yard games and is pretty much just a high-floor play in PPR leagues. That's not what you were hoping for from a first-round pick, but it is what it is at this point.
Michael Thomas is shaping up to be Julio Jones 2.0, but that's not necessarily the worst thing. He simply needs to find the end zone more to be a legit weekly WR1. The Rams have only given up six touchdowns to wide receivers this year, which is third-fewest in the league. Don't expect him to put up a big game on this occasion, but he'll give his usual five or more receptions with close to 100 yards.
Brandin Cooks has the tastiest matchup of all potential WR1 candidates, with second-year man Xavien Howard on the other side. Howard has allowed the second-most receiving yards of all CBs this year and rates out as one of the worst starting corners around. That said, I don't have enough guarantees that he'll be heavily involved enough to be a surefire top-scorer.
Deviation from expert consensus
Sammy Watkins, it's your time. Goff may have to finally look his way due to the Woods injury. Watkins has only seen more than five targets once in a game this season and that also resulted in his only 100-yard and multi-touchdown game. I'm not going to go so far as to say he'll repeat that effort, but he does jump into the WR3 mix and could be a great tournament play to boot.
The silence surrounding Amari Cooper has been deafening. Nobody truly knows what to do with the enigmatic wideout who has had one huge game surrounded by seven duds. He bookended those duds with a TD in Week 1 and another last week, but that isn't enough to redeem him as a fantasy starter. His catch rate still sits below 50% and he's only gone over 50 yards three times in 2017. You just don't need to take a chance on him against Denver, as bad as they've been.
Week 12 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis
My Top 10
The return of Greg Olsen makes the top tier a bit more crowded, albeit lackluster. There should be no restrictions for him, so immediately reinsert Olsen into your lineup but don't bother in DFS as he'll likely be chalk. Tyler Kroft exited early last week but not before scoring his fourth TD of the season. He's been a steady contributor and sits squarely on the TE1 bubble once again. Only two teams had given up more fantasy points to tight ends entering Week 12 than Cleveland, which makes Kroft more valuable than his peers.
Deviation from expert consensus
Last week Charles Clay was a big trap play. He was just coming off a multi-week injury and had Nathan Peterman at QB. We all saw how that turned out. He could be questionable, so you'll have to monitor his status closely heading into Sunday, but it could be a choice spot to try him as a streamer. Tyrod Taylor will be back, Kelvin Benjamin is doubtful, Jordan Matthews is questionable. Clay may be leaned on as the top pass target in the offense as he was early in the season.
More Week 12 Lineup Prep
Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.
