A couple of weeks ago, I wrote an article where I examined the recently promoted prospects and gave analysis on the value they would have for fantasy owners. I am officially rebooting that article series and it will now become a weekly article.
This week, since I have not done the article in a while, will have seven hitters and seven pitchers listed. Ordinarily, you should expect to see analysis on five hitters and five pitchers. I will try to focus on recently promoted prospects, but I will occasionally talk about a prospect who has been up for a while who may now have more or less value than they did earlier in the season.
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Hitters Called-Up
Tim Anderson (SS, CWS) - 6% owned
On June 10, Anderson made his big league debut in a game against the Kansas City Royals. He had been promoted earlier in an effort to spark the struggling Chicago White Sox offense and serve as an improvement over veteran shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Since then, the Sox have received mix results from their youngster. In 12 games, Anderson is slashing .264/.264/.434 with a home run and a stolen base. That production isn’t terrible, so what’s the problem? He has a walk rate of 0.0% and a strikeout rate of 31.5%. His plate discipline has always left a lot to be desired as his Minor League numbers always displayed a 20%+ strikeout rate and a sub-5% walk rate.
So what exactly should fantasy owners expect from Anderson moving forward? As of right now, Anderson has led off for the White Sox for ten straight games. He clearly has been doing his job as he has already scored seven runs this season. The 23-year-old shortstop has a history as a reliable base stealer as he managed to swipe 49 bags at Double-A last season and 11 in 55 games at Triple-A this year prior to his promotion. He should also be able to hit for a respectable average in the leadoff spot. Though that .371 BABIP seems a bit high, his plus speed should help to keep it from regressing too much.
Since he will probably only provide above-average production from shortstop, Anderson is probably not worth owning in leagues with fewer than 10 teams. But 10+ team leagues could have some value for the speedy leadoff hitter as he continues to mature at the big leagues.
Jose Peraza (2B, CIN) - 3% owned
As of my writing this, Peraza is still in the big leagues. There has been some speculation since the Reds are wrapping up their American League road trip that they will demote Peraza once again, but he still is on the big league roster. So far in his 10 games (36 PA) with the Reds, Peraza is slashing .229/.250/.229 with no home runs and four stolen bases.
Those stats sort of reflect what you should expect out of the speedy utility player. He is neither going to walk a ton nor will he hit for a tremendous amount of pop, but he sure has plenty of speed. Over his Minor League career spanning six seasons and 2,267 PA, Peraza has attempted 275 stolen base attempts and has been successful 219 times (success rate of 79.6%). All while doing this, he has almost always hit for a solid average (career MiLB .299 BA). And unlike the aforementioned speedster Tim Anderson, Peraza has never had an issue with striking out as his highest career strikeout rate at any level was 14.0%.
Peraza is on the big league roster, but he does not have much of a role other than utility guy who will make occasional spot starts. But if the Reds sell Zack Cozart and/or Brandon Phillips at the trade deadline, expect to see Peraza grab some starting time. At that point, he should be owned in 10+ team leagues. Until then, fantasy owners should either stash him (in 14+ team leagues) or just wait until a trade.
Willson Contreras (C, CHC) - 16% owned
Wow has Contreras been some kind of impressive already in his first taste of Major League action! In his first career at-bat, he jacked a two-run home run. And as of this writing, he is slashing .444/.500/1.111 with two home runs and an equal 10.0% walk and strikeout rate.
The biggest reason that Contreras is only owned in 16% of leagues is because he splits time behind the dish with two other catchers, Miguel Montero and David Ross. But according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com, Cubs manager Joe Maddon is trying to get Contreras some more playing time. “If we can get Contreras two of of five, possibly a three spot once in a while, I think that can keep him somewhat solvent,” Maddon said. For current owners of the talented catcher, this is huge as that number is only liable to increase as Montero continues to struggle at the dish (and behind the plate) and Contreras continues to prove himself.
If you are not already owning Contreras, you should probably change that soon. He is not as powerful as former catching prospect Kyle Schwarber, but he still has so much to offer in what has been a major down year for offensive production from catchers. At this point, he should probably be owned in all leagues as it looks like he is up in the Big Leagues to stay.
Albert Almora (OF, CHC) - 4% owned
Next up on 'aren’t the Cubs great?!' is outfielder Albert Almora. When Almora was promoted, there wasn’t much to make about it. A guy with only one tool offensively and more of a defensive specialist, Almora did not figure to have much of a fantasy impact. Now granted, outside of his batting average, he has not really done much, but there is still some value to that.
Slashing .286/.324/.429 with no home runs or stolen bases, Almora is clearly a move for teams with a need for batting average help and nothing else. Since his debut on June 7, Almora has only garnered eight starts. But with Matt Szczur as a below-average defender and Jason Hayward still struggling at the plate, he could garner more starts as the season wears on.
Most fantasy owners are really going to be able to pass up on Almora. As solid as he is from a batting average perspective, he really provides just that for fantasy owners. In leagues with more than 14 teams, he could have some value as a solid spot starter.
Peter O’Brien (OF, ARI) - 2% owned
If you look all-or-nothing in the dictionary, odds are there will be a picture of O’Brien. In 37 plate appearances this season with Arizona, the slugger has six hits, four of which have flown over the outfield fences. But his current slash line is otherwise a dreadful .162/.162/.486. For fantasy owners, there is some value to be had with him, but it is limited.
O’Brien is not a bad player, but he is essentially a power-hitting version of Albert Almora in that home runs are the only thing he will provide owners. In Triple-A before his promotion, he slashed .330/.356/.670 with 17 home runs in 225 PA. The main focus of that should not be on his batting average or even the home runs, but the fact that his OBP is only .026 higher than his average. That is because he walked only nine times. He also struck out 61 times (27.1% of the time).
I like to think that at his peak, O’Brien could be another Adam Duvall. Duvall had a track record of hitting for a lot of power in the minors while striking out plenty and without walking often. What separates Duvall and O’Brien are two things: one that in some leagues O’Brien still qualifies as a catcher, immensely increasing his value; and two that Duvall is a starter while O’Brien still rides the bench for the Diamondbacks. With a .118 BABIP, O’Brien should eventually start hitting for a higher average as that is so unsustainably low. If owners in 14+ team leagues need some power, O’Brien is your guy. But until he starts hitting for a better average and until he secures a starting role for the team, his value is limited.
Steven Moya (OF, DET) - 2% owned
The left-handed Peter O’Brien, Steven Moya has been fortunate enough to grab himself some playing time and be the beneficiary of some batted ball luck. Moya is currently slashing .321/.333/.623 with three home runs. In spite of his 27.8% K rate and very low 1.9% BB rate, Moya has been able to keep his average thanks in large part to a very high .400 BABIP.
I say that Moya is the left-handed version of O’Brien because he too has a MiLB history of hitting for incredible power, but always at the cost of extremely high strikeout rates and low walk rates. If you considered yourself to be someone interested in O’Brien, you should probably think even harder about Moya as he is currently riding a wave of success with consistent starting time in right field following the injury to J.D. Martinez. But with that said, he is due for regression soon and is really only going to be a source of power for fantasy owners.
Jefry Marte (1B/3B, LAA) - 2% owned
It really hurts Jefry Marte that the only positions he qualifies for are two of the best offensive positions in baseball. Going through his MiLB history, owners will find that he has actually posted up strong numbers in terms of plate discipline (high walk rates, low strikeout rates) while consistently hitting double-digit dinger totals. He has done well so far in his second taste of big league action. He is currently slashing .293/.328/.569 with four home runs. His current 29.5% strikeout and 4.9% walk rates do not look great, but with his history of solid patience, he should improve on both of those numbers.
Marte is a solid producer at the dish and has recently been found batting around the fifth hole for the Angels. He is not an outstanding source of production, but he will have some value to owners in 14+ team leagues as a potential spot starter. If he continues to hit for as much power as he has already, he could be worth owning in 12 team leagues as well. He still has a bit to go though before I could urge that to happen.
Pitchers Called-Up
Cody Reed (SP, CIN) - 5% owned
Reed was recently promoted to take over a spot in the Reds’ rotation and he looked very solid in his debut. He delivered seven strong innings with nine strikeouts, three walks and four hits (two of which were home runs). It should be noted that the first walk was the first batter and the first home run was his second batter. Safe to say that can probably be chalked up to nerves.
Before his promotion, Reed was outstanding at Triple-A. He threw 64.2 innings in which he owned a 3.20 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 8.77 K/9, 2.37 BB/9 and 0.84 HR/9. He has made steady improvements every season with his command to the point now where walks should not be considered one of the biggest issues with the young southpaw. And with one of the most lethal lefty sliders, an above-average changeup and a mid-upper-90s fastball, Reed has a truly devastating repertoire.
Reed has this spot in the rotation for the remainder of the season unless he struggles (unlikely) or has an innings limit in place (possible in the later weeks of the season). He is not going to be the next ace of anyone’s fantasy team, but he can provide number two starter levels of quality and should serve as a very reliable arm for many fantasy squads. He should be owned in all 10+ team leagues.
Julio Urias (SP, LAD) - 16% owned
Uriah had a very rough start to his big league career. He debuted against the Mets and lasted only 2.2 innings while giving up three runs on five hits and four walks. His next outing wasn’t any better as he turned in five innings with six runs (five earned) off eight hits and one walk. But since then, he has been very solid for the Dodgers. In his four most recent starts, Urias owns a 2.33 ERA, 1.52 FIP, 13.03 K/9, 1.86 BB/9 and 0.47 HR/9 in 19.1 innings of work. As of right now, he is heating up in the best kind of way.
Unfortunately, he is heating up just as he is about to be semi-shut down. According to ESPN.com’s Doug Padilla, Urias has one more start at the big league level before being reevaluated. Between Triple-A and the majors, the 19-year-old has already thrown 68.0 innings after throwing 80.1 last season and 87.2 the year before that. It is unlikely at this point that he would be demoted to Triple-A and start there because he has proven he can face big league hitters, but it is very likely he will be shifted to the bullpen to conserve his innings. For fantasy owners, this move would be devastating since he will not be closing. He could still be an elite reliever like a Kelvin Herrera, but he would no longer be worth owning in all leagues.
Jameson Taillon (SP, PIT) - 20% owned
Another young, promising starter who debuted against the Mets this season, Taillon has been inserted into the rotation while Gerrit Cole sits out with an injury. Once Cole returns, however, it is highly unlikely that Taillon will lose his spot as he has shown too much promise. In three starts, the 24-year-old has thrown 18 innings with a 3.50 ERA, 5.40 FIP, 6.50 K/9, 2.00 BB/9 and 2.00 HR/9. Most of the damage from the long ball came when he faced the Cubs and surrendered four runs on three home runs in only four innings. Before that outing, he had thrown eight shutout innings against the Mets in which he struck out five and only allowed one walk and two hits.
Taillon will likely also be placed on an innings limit this season, but unlike Urias it doesn’t figure to factor into his starts until much later this season. For the time being, Taillon has enough upside to warrant owning in all leagues. He won’t be a prolific strikeout artist like the next name on this list, but he won’t beat himself up with walks.
Blake Snell (SP, TB) - 14% owned
Snell was recently promoted following the move to send Matt Andriese to the bullpen and he has been a mixed bag for the Rays. Earlier this season, he debuted against the New York “can’t hit lefties” Yankees and dazzled with five innings of two -hit one run baseball in which he walked one and struck out six. His first outing back from Triple-A was not great as he gave up five hits and three walks in only 3.1 innings of work. Only one of five runs was earned, but nonetheless it showed some weakness. Then his most recent outing he showed a lot more promise. He made his longest start of the season (both in Triple-A and the MLB) when he lasted 6.2 innings against the Indians. He allowed three runs (two earned) on seven hits and three walks with three strikeouts.
The Rays’ southpaw, like many of the other names on this list, can be expected to be on an innings limit as his career-high in innings in a season sits at 134, which he reached last season. Owners can expect him to reach about 150 this season. As far as production is concerned--if he doesn’t beat himself up with walks--Snell will be a true ace. He has elite strikeout stuff and can be nearly unhittable, but his command is his biggest enemy. Even with his well documented command issues, his upside warrants owning in all leagues.
Tyler Anderson (SP, COL) - 4% owned
Where on Earth did Anderson come from? Pitching in Coors Field against San Diego (albeit not the greatest offense in the world), Anderson delivered 6.1 innings in which he gave up only one run on six hits with no walks and six strikeouts. He followed that up with another stellar outing in Miami.
Anytime a pitcher plays for Colorado, owners are advised to approach him with extreme caution. Anderson is not a bad starter, but he had only racked up 20.2 innings between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A this season before his promotion. That was largely as a result of an injury that kept him sidelined for all of 2015. He does have a track record of success in the minors, but most scouts have always viewed him as a guy with back of the rotation stuff and that does not bode well when you call Coors Field home. He could be worth the occasional spot start when he is pitching on the road, but I generally think he would be best avoided.
Daniel Mengden (SP, OAK) - 4% owned
Mengden flies under the radar because he has never been considered a top prospect, but he certainly has the stuff to be a very solid middle of the rotation starter. Prior to his promotion, Mengden had thrown 45.1 innings at Triple-A with a 1.39 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 7.74 K/9, 1.99 BB/9 and 0.60 HR/9. Command has always been his most promising attribute, but his fastball can reach the mid-90s (though it generally sits in the low-90s) and he has three average to above-average secondary offerings to throw at batters.
Mengden is not the next Sonny Gray for the Athletics or for fantasy owners, but owners in 12+ team leagues could do worse while he is going strong. His history indicates he likely won’t keep up his current 10.50 K/9 in the big leagues, but eight to nine strikeouts per nine should not be out of the question. And with his plus command and solid stuff, he should be a low-risk buy.
Archie Bradley (SP, ARI) - 10% owned
Bradley has been a starter in the Diamondbacks rotation for a while now, but he recently has been performing very well and should grab the attention of fantasy owners. Since his return to the big leagues on May 29, Bradley has a 3.82 ERA, 4.46 FIP, an impressive 11.15 K/9, 3.82 BB/9 and an unlucky 1.76 HR/9. Bradley’s misfortunes this season has been mostly the result of his improved, but still below-average command and his bad luck with the long ball. The current 20.7% HR/FB rate is unsustainably bad and fantasy owners should expect him to bring it down as the season progresses.
But what Bradley will always provide fantasy owners with is a bunch of strikeouts. He has struck out nine or more batters in three of his most recent five starts and is showing the Diamondbacks why he has always been considered such a highly touted prospect. Though the ‘future ace of the Dbacks’ has likely worn off over the years, Bradley still has enough upside to become a two or three starter with plenty of strikeouts to offer fantasy owners. He is worth adding in 12+ team leagues.
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