Week 13 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2020 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Week 12 saw some crazy high defensive point totals with Atlanta, Carolina, San Francisco, and Houston all scoring over 15 points. In fact, all of the top-10 units scored in double-figures, which is something I can't remember having happened in a while. The Raider's penchant for fumbles early in the season had me high on Atlanta, but they were only 12th for me, so I never saw this coming; nor did I see the defensive explosion for the Panthers, even with Adam Theilen out.

However, I was still able to muster five top-10 defenses correct with the Steelers still to come against a banged-up Baltimore team on Wednesday night. With all the madness at the top of the rankings, I'd take a 60% hit rate when all is said and done.

As this week showed us, selecting the right defense can lead to a massive swing in your fantasy matchup. With playoff spots on the line this week, who you choose in your DST will be even more crucial. Like all aspects of fantasy football, being on top of the news and trying to think one or two steps ahead is always beneficial in attacking fantasy defenses. I would argue that, at this point in the season, having a second defense on your bench with an eye towards next week's matchup can often be more valuable than a 5th WR or RB who would never play for you unless you suffer mass injuries.

Picking The Right Defenses

When choosing a defense, you want to be looking for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points.  If a defense allows a stingy yards per play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below - but they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.

Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. NFL offenses have scored 8,698 points or 24.9 points per game so far this season and gained 357.2 yards per team per game, which, despite coming back to earth a little bit over the past couple of weeks, is the most through the first 12 weeks of any season in the Super Bowl era in either stat.

With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.

We can also identify the offenses that we want to attack based on current performance. Injuries can always change this, but, for right now, defenses going up against the Cowboys, Jets, Broncos, Eagles, Lions, Bengals, Giants, and Washington Football team have scored considerably more points on average than defenses facing other offenses.  Attacking these teams doesn't always work, and you don't want to elevate a bad defense too far just because they get one of those teams; however, it is a key factor to keep in mind when making your decision.

Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.

Week 13 Defenses To Start & Stream: Tiers & Rankings

These rankings are from before the Monday Night Football game and will be adjusted throughout the week to take into account weather and injuries.

Below are my Week 13 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 13 of the NFL and fantasy football season. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver wire pickups to improve your lineups, and to decide which defenses to start, sit, target, avoid or stream for Week 13. I've broken out our defense rankings into tiers with analysis on each matchup. Some of these Week 13 defenses have good matchups and are not widely-owned, representing fantasy scoring opportunities if they are available on your league's waiver wire for a Week 13 pickup or add.

Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating, which Bill Dubiel started last year, is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of a straight point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. I take a lot of factors into account: opponent injuries, home-field advantage, weather (which will be updated during the week), etc. We still have only one game of in-season data to work with, so this week's rankings weigh schedule and personnel heavier than they will down the line.

Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues and Tier 5 being desperation plays or good defenses in horrendous matchups.

UPDATED 12/4/20

Tier 1 Defenses

Defenses going up against Washington are scoring an average of 8.3 points a game, the 7th best in the league. Much of that has to do with Washington being 30th in the NFL in sacks allowed, 24th in offensive drives ending in a turnover, and 27th in offensive drives ending in a score. As we know by now, the Steelers are not a normal defense. Heading into their Wednesday night showdown with Baltimore, the Steelers have the top pressure rate in the NFL by over 9%. They are also 1st in sacks, 2nd in blitz rate, and 1st in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover. This ranking may change as we see the final fallout from Pittsburgh's COVID exposure and their game against the Ravens, especially since it will be such a short turnaround for the Steelers, but as it stands right now, they are my top choice for Week 13.

The Broncos will likely have at least one quarterback next Sunday against the Chiefs, but that won't make them any less enticing to target against. Defenses that face the Broncos average 9.8 points, which is good for 3rd-best in the league. The Broncos offense is 28th in drives that end in a score, 17th in sacks allowed, and dead last in drives that end in a turnover. Their turnover-prone ways are what make this such a good matchup since the Chiefs are 8th in percentage of defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover and tied for 4th in the league in total turnovers. They are 12th in pressure rate, so they may be able to get to Drew Lock, or whoever starts at quarterback, but I expect Denver to be in catch-up mode and have to throw often in the second half, which will lead to even more turnovers and perhaps a defensive touchdown.

We'll obviously know more about the status of Baltimore's team later on in the week, but this ranking is assuming that the players who didn't test positive for COVID themselves will be back for the Monday night game against the Cowboys and that some who tested positive earliest may also be cleared. If the Ravens have a near-healthy defense, I expect them to take advantage of a Cowboys offense that is dead last in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses at 11 points per game.

The Bengals played their first game without Joe Mixon and Joe Burrow and it was...not great. They may have scored 17 points and almost mounted a comeback, but they gained only 155 yards of total offense while allowing two sacks and turning the ball over three times. The Bengals are 31st in sacks allowed on the season and will be put to the test against an opportunistic Dolphins defense that is the 2nd-ranked fantasy DST since Week 7. They are tied for 11th in total sacks, 6th in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover, 3rd in total turnovers, and 3rd in defensive drives ending in an offensive score. The best way to beat the Dolphins is on the ground, but Giovani Bernard and this Bengals offensive line don't seem capable of taking advantage of that, which makes Miami one of the safer options on the slate.

Tier 2 Defenses

Seattle has been a much better defense with Carlos Dunlap in the fold. Last night they held the Eagles to 250 total yards while picking off Carson Wentz once and sacking him six times. That now makes the Seahawks 8th in the league in sacks and 7th in quarterback hurries, and that increased pressure has given quarterbacks less of a chance to take advantage of their still poor secondary. The Giants are 26th in sacks allowed and may now have to play without Daniel Jones, who injured his hamstring on Sunday. If Jones does miss time, you might even be able to make the argument that the Seahawks belong in Tier 1.

The Raiders got blown out by the Falcons on Sunday, but the final score makes it look worse than the defense actually played. It wasn't a great game, but the defense allowed only 304 total yards and three offensive touchdowns while notching a sack and an interception. Again, not a performance to write home about, but also not one that usually leads to 43 points. Next up, they will get a Jets offense that is allowing 9.9 points per game to opposing fantasy defenses, good for 2nd-most in the NFL. With Frank Gore still starting, the Jets are basically a one-dimensional offense that refuses to admit as much since they keep running Gore 12+ times a game. That's part of the reason the Jets are dead last in offensive drives ending in points. When you pair that with them ranking 24th in sacks allowed, it gives a mediocre Las Vegas unit enough of a chance to be a back-half top-10 defense in Week 13.

The Colts have a reputation as being a strong defensive unit and, in some ways, they are. They are 5th in the league in defensive drives ending in an offensive score and 5th in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover. However, they are only the 14th best fantasy defense since Week 7, and a lot of that has to do with being 17th in sacks and 18th in pressure rate. Bringing pressure is the best way to score fantasy points against the Texans, who have been a much better offense since Bill O'Brien was fired but are still 23rd in sacks allowed. A potential cause of worry for the Colts is that Houston is 1st in the NFL in yards gained per pass attempt, while the Colts have suffered some injuries in the secondary and are 13th overall in yards allowed per pass. However, with Will Fuller being suspended for PEDs, Kenny Stills released, and Duke Johnson continuing to prove he is not a feature back, we may see a very different Texans offense on Sunday that could struggle to move the ball at all against these Colts.

The Lions' offense has been abysmal of late, and it's not likely to get better with D'Andre Swift, Kenny Golladay, and Danny Amendola all likely out on Sunday. Their new fresh coaching staff may actually try to take advantage of the talent on offense, so it's hard to truly know which Lions offense we're going to see. Granted, it's still one we want to target, but the Bears are 25th in pressure rate, 20th in sacks, and 23rd in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover, so this isn't exactly the most fantasy-friendly unit. They are stingy (9th in the league in offensive drives ending in a score), so they will likely keep the Lions from putting up too many points and can possibly take advantage of Matthew Stafford's thumb injury, but I don't believe this is a unit with the same type of upside as some of the teams above them. INJURY UPDATE: SWIFT SEEMS LIKELY TO MISS WITH AN ILLNESS, AND NOW STAFFORD HIMSELF IS QUESTIONABLE FOR SUNDAY. PERHAPS THE LIONS ARE TANKING NOW. IF STAFFORD SITS AS WELL, YOU CAN MOVE THE BEARS UP EVEN MORE. 

Tier 3 Defenses

Atlanta isn't exactly an easy match-up, in fact, opposing defenses are 21st on average in fantasy points scored against the Falcons offense at 4.4 per game; however, this Saints defense is on another level right now. They are the number one defense in fantasy since Week 7 with 11.3 points scored per game. They're doing it on the back of the 5th-best pressure rate and 4th most sacks; however, they are also 11th in defensive drives ending in an offensive score and 15th in defensive drives ending in a turnover despite a terrible defensive start to the season. If the Falcons are without Julio Jones or Todd Gurley again, we can play the Saints with even more confidence, but they're simply playing at too high a level to bench them right now, especially against a Falcons offensive line that is 22nd in the league in sacks allowed. INJURY UPDATE: THE SAINTS MOVE DOWN INTO THE THIRD TIER BECAUSE JULIO JONES IS EXPECTED TO PLAY AND JANORIS JENKINS HAS BEEN RULED OUT. THAT'S A BIG DOWNGRADE FOR NEW ORLEANS AGAINST A HEALTHY FALCONS RECEIVING CORPS. 

Yes, the Packers let up 25 points to the Bears on Sunday night, but 15 of those came in the 4th quarter with the game already out of hand. Perhaps most interesting to me is that the Packers notched three sacks, which is good news considering they are 29th in pressure rate and 16th in sacks. They will need that ability to get into the backfield to score fantasy points against an Eagles offensive line that is last in the league with 46 sacks allowed, or over four per game. The Eagles are also 30th in the league in offensive drives that end in turnovers, which is why defenses that go up against them score the 4th-most points in fantasy with 9.2 points per game. I don't quite think the Packers have the pass rush to put up a top-five performance, but I can see them sneaking into the top-10 against an Eagles team that just seems broken.

Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and Raheem Mostert are back, which makes the Niners a tougher offense, but fantasy defenses facing the 49ers are 11th in the league with 6.7 points per game, and the Bills are the 8th best fantasy defense since Week 7 with 8.4 points per game (including games against the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Chargers offenses). The 49ers are 20th in sacks allowed, 17th in offensive drives ending in a score, and 25th in offensive drives ending in a turnover. That last number is important since the Bills defense is 3rd in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover and tied for 5th in overall turnovers. They also bring a defense that is 8th in sacks, which should give them an extra pathway to points against a team that has been displaced from their home stadium and will basically be playing this game on the road. The Bills have some demons to exercise in Arizona anyway.

Kyler Murray is clearly not healthy. Anybody who watched his performance against the Patriots knows that the AC joint is bothering him, which took a lot of bite out of this Cardinals offense. If the injury lingers, as it appears likely to, we simply can't expect the offense to be as dynamic as it has been, and one hit where Murray lands awkwardly on that throwing shoulder could lead to Chris Streveler taking snaps, which would torpedo this offense. That said, the Rams just gave up 348 yards to a banged-up 49ers team and only sacked Nick Mullens twice despite San Francisco being 20th in the league in sacks allowed. The Cardinals are 9th in sacks allowed, so getting pressure on Murray isn't going to be an easy task for a Rams defense that has been the 4th-best fantasy DST since Week 7. Murray's injury keeps the Rams in play, but defenses that go up against the Cardinals score on average only 3.6 points per game, so this isn't a matchup we want to attack unless we get practice reports that suggest Murray is trending in the wrong direction.

The Vikings are having a fairly average year on defense, ranking as the 17th best defense since Week 7. They are 24th in pressure rate, 24th in sacks, 31st in defensive drives that end in an offensive score, and 28th in defensive drives that end in an offensive turnover. However, they find their way in Tier 3 because defenses that face Jacksonville are the 10th highest-scoring defenses with an average of 7.6 points per game. The Jaguars are 25th in sacks allowed, 29th in offensive drives that end in points, and 26th in offensive drives that end in a turnover, so they give defenses plenty of opportunities to score points.  If Chris Conley, D.J. Chark, and Gardner Minshew aren't able to suit up next weekend, that would make the Vikings matchup even tastier.

Don't look now but the Atlanta Falcons have the 7th-ranked defense since Week 7 and 3rd-ranked defense over the last three weeks. They've gotten noticeably better since firing Dan Quinn and are now 8th in pressure rate, 4th in quarterback knockdown percentage, and 15th in total turnovers. They still gave up a fair amount of points and are vulnerable threw the air, but the good thing for them is that Taysom Hill has yet to prove that he can exploit a team's weakness in the secondary. Sure, he looked fine in his first start, and it's hard to read too much into a game against a Broncos team that didn't have a quarterback, but it's clear that the Saints are going to be far more run-oriented with Hill under center than they were with Brees. Hill is mobile enough to avoid sacks but lacks Drew Brees' pocket awareness, which is why he took three sacks in the game against the Broncos. Without the Saints being as potent as they have been in the past, I'm all for taking a shot on the resurgent Falcons defense this week in deep-leagues.

This may not be the 49ers defense of old, but they're solid. They're the 10th-ranked defense since Week 7 and are top-10 in net yards allowed rushing and passing. They fall just below average in defensive drives that end in an offensive score and defensive drives that end in a turnover, but their 12th-ranked pressure rate could cause problems against a Bills offensive line that lost Cody Ford for the season, is still playing Brian Winters at guard and just got manhandled by Joey Bosa. Unfortunately, Nick Bosa won't be there to get in on the fun, but these Bills turned the ball over three times on Sunday and have had some problems delivering in primetime games recently. There is a very good chance that the 49ers can get pressure on Josh Allen on Monday night, forcing some bad throws or the type of game-changing fumble that the Bills quarterback has been known to give up in the past.

Tier 4 Defenses

Tier 5 Defenses

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