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What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find part two of our Week 13 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the second half of the Week 13 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part one of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Camus (@pfunk00).
Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
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Week 12 Matchup Analysis Recap
Greatest Hits: LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF), Devontae Booker (RB, DEN), Robert Kelley (RB, WAS)
McCoy was able to shred the Jaguars defense, rushing 19 times for 103 yards and two scores. His day really got going on the first play of the second half, when he broke loose on a 75-yard TD run. He is an every week RB1 with a relatively easy ROS schedule. Booker was still unable to take advantage of his starting opportunity last week, rushing for a YPC under four once again. He rushed 24 times for 79 yards, and caught a 22-yard pass. The volume he receives is great, but fantasy owners are still searching for a big game. Kelley was a victim of game-flow on Thanksgiving, ending the day with 37 yards on 14 rushes. He lost work on passing downs to Chris Thompson. If the Skins get down early again this week to the Packers, we could see this happen again.
Greatest Misses: Allen Robinson (WR, JAX), Tyreek Hill (WR, KC), Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR)
Shame on me for thinking Blake Bortles could take advantage of a Bills defense that was struggling against the QB position. Bortles completed only 50% of his passes, with the leading receiver having only 37 yards. Robinson was left in the dust, with only two catches for 24 yards. I thought the Broncos defense, with one of the best secondaries in the league, would be able to limit the athletic freak Tyreek Hill. Nope. All Hill did was something that hasn't been done by anyone since Hall of Fame RB Gale Sayers in 1965; he scored touchdowns on a punt return, a rush and a reception. He should be started in all leagues for the remainder of the year. Stewart didn't flop last week, in fact he had one of his best fantasy days of the season. He rushed 17 times for 96 yards with two scores.
Chiefs @ Falcons - Sunday 12/4 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Spencer Ware (RB, KC)
The Falcons defense has allowed the eighth fewest rushing yards this season, yet they have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing RB this season. The reason? Opposing backs have piled up 756 receiving yards against them, over 150 yards more than the next closest team. Even though Ware only averages three targets per game and is 25th overall in targets among all RB, he is fifth in receiving yards by a RB with 372 yards in 10 games. He has 24 receptions on 30 targets this season. He is 10th in the league in all-purpose yards. Ware has had a tough job filling the shoes of future Hall of Fame inductee Jamaal Charles, and so far this season he has performed admirably in this offense. Against a soft run defense, expect him to feast on Sunday.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Travis Kelce has been the leading receiver on this roster all season, even through the decline of Jeremy Maclin and the rise of Tyreek Hill. He leads the team by a large margin in targets, receptions, and yards, catching 57-of-82 passes for 675 yards with three TD. He is coming off of his second straight 100-yard game; catching eight of a whopping 15 targets for 101 yards last week against a stout Broncos defense. Atlanta has allowed the fifth most points to the TE position, and has allowed a touchdown to an opposing TE in two of their past three games. Kelce is a solid TE1 this week, with potential to finish at the top of his position.
Matchups We Hate
Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL)
Devonta Freeman is a solid RB, and should 100% be started in fantasy leagues this week. However, he has a couple of things working against him this week. Tevin Coleman returned to action last week, and although he didn’t do much with his touches he did score a touchdown. With another week of work under his belt we could see Coleman in a bigger capacity this week, which would take away from Freeman. Also, this Chiefs defense is no joke against the run. For the season they have allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points to the RB position, but have been even better of late. Over the past three weeks they have held opposing RB to 2.9 YPC, including Devontae Booker and Doug Martin. With this defense playing well and the Atlanta backfield getting one RB bigger, it spells a mediocre day for Freeman.
Notable Players
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Fresh off his most dominating game of the season, Hill will look to continue his recent success against the Falcons secondary. As discussed earlier, Hill reached the end zone by way of a punt return, reception and a rushing attempt last week. He has absolutely taken over the top WR spot on this team with the unfortunate decline of Jeremy Maclin this season. Atlanta has been OK against opposing WR, giving up the 12th most points to the position this season. However, their top CB Desmond Trufant was recently ruled out for the remainder of the season after suffering a pectoral injury that requires surgery. Not having to worry about him will be huge for Hill owners this week; he should be set to continue his second half success.
Julio Jones (WR, ATL)
The Chiefs are known for having a solid defense, but the secondary has not been a part of that conversation this season. KC has given up the second most fantasy points to the WR position this season. However, the majority of that damage has come from the WR2 spot. Last week they held Demaryius Thomas to only five receptions for 60 yards, but Emmanuel Sanders took off for 162 yards and a score on seven catches. Earlier in the year, they tried to limit Brandin Cooks, but in the process watched Michael Thomas and Willie Snead pile up more receptions and yardage. As the unquestioned WR1 in this offense and one of the top WR in the league, Jones should be able to find his way to a strong game. Just don’t be surprised if someone like Taylor Gabriel finds the end zone again this week also.
Bills @ Raiders - Sunday 12/4 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)
Fresh off torching the Jaguars defense, Shady finds himself in a great matchup with the Raiders. The backbone of the Bills offense looks completely healthy, evidenced by his huge run last week. He ripped off a huge 75-yard TD in the first play of the second half last week, the longest touchdown run of his career. He ended the day with 103 yards, his first 100-yard rushing day since Week 6. Over the past two games coming out of the bye week, the Raiders defense has been porous against the run. Lamar Miller and Jonathan Stewart rushed for a combined 200 yards and three TD on 41 carries (4.9 YPC). With a more talented Shady coming to town, the Raiders are going to have their hands full. Expect the Bills to lean on him heavily with this game expected to be an offensive showdown.
Michael Crabtree (WR, OAK)
After two less-than stellar games, Crabtree came back in a big way last week. Against a weak Panthers secondary, Crabtree hauled in 8-of-13 targets for 110 yards, his first 100-yard game since Week 8. This week he faces a Bills defense that has looked improved over the past two weeks. They limited the Jaguars and Bengals top receiving targets (the A.J. Green-less Bengals) to less than 40 receiving yards. However, they have been burned by WR2s this season. Last week, it was Marqise Lee who hauled in a TD, and the week before it was Tyler Boyd. Crabtree is one of if not the best WR2 in the league. He is going to give the Bills defense and their undersized corners fits on Sunday, while top CB Ronald Darby covers Amari Cooper.
Matchups We Hate
Latavius Murray (RB, OAK)
After running over and around the Broncos in Week 9, Latavius Murray has posted back-to-back mediocre games. Over the past two weeks, he has rushed a combined 31 times for only 78 yards (2.5 YPC). Fortunately for fantasy owners he also has eight receptions for 102 yards over those two weeks, which saved his fantasy value. This matchup with the Bills with be equally as tough as his prior two matchups; since the bye week they have allowed only 3.6 YPC to opposing RB. They have been much better at stopping the run over anything this season. Marcel Dareus will likely be out this week which helps Murray’s case, but he has been absent for most of the season and the Bills have still done well. This matchup doesn’t bode well for Murray.
Notable Players
Sammy Watkins (WR, BUF)
Sammy Watkins made his long-awaited return to the Bills last week, playing 45% of the team’s snaps while Buffalo eases him back into action. He secured 3-of-4 targets for 80 yards, including a big 62-yard reception in the third quarter. After the game Watkins reported some soreness in his previously injured foot, which was expected. He was a limited participant at practice this week, but is expected to play on Sunday. Barring his health, this could be a huge game for Watkins; Oakland has given up the eighth most fantasy points to the WR position this season. Watkins is head and shoulders more talented than any other WR on the roster, he just can’t stay healthy. As long as he’s on the field, expect Watkins to be QB Tyrod Taylor’s favorite target. If his snap count increases, expect around 7-or-8 targets at least.
Amari Cooper (WR, OAK)
Cooper has been excellent this season for Oakland, and is on pace to top his impressive rookie season in all major categories. Last week however, he posted his lowest receiving total of the season with only 22 yards on four receptions. As mentioned above this Bills defense has been good against opposing WR, but have been mainly beat by WR2. Cooper will likely draw the coverage of CB Ronald Darby, who has been the Bills top CB this season. A WR1 hasn’t scored on this team since Julian Edelman back in Week 8. They have limited Allen Robinson, Doug Baldwin, and Jarvis Landry to under 100-yards each with zero touchdowns between them. Cooper will grab a few passes, but don’t expect a huge performance from the young WR.
Buccaneers @ Chargers - Sunday 12/4 @ 4:25 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Tyrell Williams (WR, SD)
Tyrell Williams will be able to dominate this Buccaneers’ secondary if he plays like he is expected to on Sunday. However, he did not practice Wednesday (most veterans/dinged up players don’t), and was absent for the beginning of practice Thursday. Williams is dealing with a labrum issue that he suffered last game, but this wouldn’t be the first time he’s had this problem. In 2014, he played through a torn right labrum during his senior year at Western Oregon. He underwent offseason surgery, and the Chargers signed him as an undrafted free agent. He has obviously developed into a nice WR for SD, and may need to play his way through the pain again. If he plays, he will have a chance to extend his touchdown streak to four games. Over the past three weeks, he is averaging six receptions on 11 targets for 87 yards and a TD. If he plays, 100% put him into your lineups.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
This budding superstar (no longer budding, just a full-fledged superstar) has taken the league by storm this season, partly due to his league-leading 130 targets, and partly due to his freakish athletic abilities. The Chargers secondary has been susceptible to big games from opposing WR1; last week they allowed DeAndre Hopkins to have his best game since Week 6, and before the bye week they allowed DeVante Parker to eclipse the 100-yard mark. The last time they faced anyone of Evans’ caliber was Julio Jones in Week 7, when he torched them for 174 yards on nine receptions. With the volume of looks he receives against this secondary, it is fair to expect a game like Jones’, but with fewer yards and a touchdown or two.
Matchups We Hate
Melvin Gordon (RB, SD)
This game will be great for receivers, but may be a tough one for these running backs. The Buccaneers haven’t allowed a rushing score since Week 7, and since then have only allowed one RB to eclipse 80 rushing yards (Jordan Howard, Week 10). They have been one of the top run defenses since their bye week. Melvin Gordon enters this week as one of the top fantasy RB in the league. One year after failing to score a touchdown he has become an absolute touchdown machine. Gordon is tied for fourth in the league with 11 total touchdowns (nine rushing, two receiving). He is also fourth in the league in all-purpose yards, with 908 rushing and 365 receiving. Point being, even though this is a tough matchup, Gordon is a RB that can do it all and should still be viewed as an RB1 this week.
Doug Martin (RB, TB)
Martin hasn’t played his best football since his return from injury, but he has made improvements in his game each week. He has seen his YPC jump each week, from 2.06, to 2.63, to a season-high 3.78 YPC last week against the Seahawks. On the whole, the Chargers defense has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to the RB position. However, they have been much better of late. Last week they limited Lamar Miller to only 3.0 YPC, and before the bye they held DeMarco Murray to only 51 yards rushing. The presence of rookie Joey Bosa has helped improve the entire defense, making this opponent a bit more tricky than meets the eye. Against a defense that has given up the fifth most reception yards to opposing RB, Martin will need to get active in the passing game to find success. Otherwise, it will be another long day for Martin owners.
Notable Players
Antonio Gates (TE, SD)
Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry have alternated fantasy relevancy this season. Early in the year it seems as if Henry had taken over the aging Gates, but soon after Gates’ return from injury he regained his spot back. Heading into last week with scores in three straight, Gates was held without a target despite lining up for a full set of offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Henry caught two passes for 20 yards and a TD. Gates is still the TE to own of the two, but it will be difficult to predict Gates’ usage in the offense week-to-week. The Buccaneers have been alright at limiting opposing TE this season, but over the past two weeks Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham have had successful days against this defense. If Gates can get some looks this week, at the very least expect a touchdown as he tries to catch Tony Gonzalez’s TE TD record.
Giants @ Steelers - Sunday 12/4 @ 4:25 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, NYG)
Though he has been slightly off the pace from last season, Beckham has been one of the top five WR in fantasy this season. Since the Giants bye week, he has seen a whopping 39 targets (across four games), turning those into 25 receptions for 285 yards and five TD. With the way the Giants are using Beckham on the field, he is matchup proof. They move him around the field to capitalize on poor matchups, so although the Steelers have allowed the fourth least amount of fantasy points to the WR position, there is no stopping OBJ when QB Eli Manning is feeding him the ball. Beckham is the only Giants player you should feel comfortable starting this week.
Antonio Brown (WR, PIT)
Speaking of matchup-proof receivers, we have Antonio Brown in this game as well. Brown dominates the targets on this team; since Ben Roethlisberger’s return three games ago Brown has 45 targets, with the next closest WR being Eli Rogers at 23. Even if Brown gets matched up with top CB Janoris Jenkins, they move him around the formation enough to get him in some better matchups. Terrelle Pryor torched this secondary last week for 131 yards on six receptions. Though they have allowed the 12th fewest fantasy points to the WR position, they have given up the ninth most receiving yards. With the Steelers at home and Big Ben healthy, Brown is a shoe-in to have a dominating week.
Matchups We Hate
Rashad Jennings (RB, NYG)
Rashad Jennings posted his finest fantasy game of the season in Week 11 against the Bears, rushing 21 times for 85 yards and a TD, along with five receptions for 44 yards. He played 70% of the teams snaps, compared to 30% for rookie Paul Perkins. Last week Jennings rushed only 15 times for 55 yards, and saw his snaps decrease to 50%, compared to 39% for Perkins. Clearly, the Giants are intent on getting multiple backs touches, making this a RBBC to avoid. The Steelers have allowed the fourth most fantasy points to the RB position this season, but outside of Ezekiel Elliott in Week 10 they have been dominant since their bye week. They limited Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell, and Frank Gore to a COMBINED 59 yards on 38 carries (1.6 YPC). Jennings is a player to avoid if you have similar options.
Notable Players
Le’Veon Bell (RB, PIT)
The Giants run defense has been one of the better units this season. They have allowed the 14th fewest fantasy points to the position, and over the past three weeks have held opposing RB to a 3.1 YPC. They have allowed the fourth fewest receiving yards to the position (366) and have yet to allow a reception TD to a RB this season. Le’Veon Bell however, is completely matchup proof. Since the bye week Bell has averaged 27 touches per game, lining up plenty at both RB and WR. A high-usage RB in what is expected to be a high-scoring game, Bell is an RB1 no matter the format this week.
Ladarius Green (TE, PIT)
Ladarius Green was unable to play for the Steelers until Week 10, after dealing with ankle and other issues before the season. Now finally back, he has been slowly eased into action by Pittsburgh. Last week he played more snaps than he has to date (26%, 14-of-54 snaps), and made the most out of his chances. Green 2-of-3 targets for 67 yards, with big chunk gains of 35 and 32 yards. He impressed so much, that head coach Mike Tomlin said he expects Green to see increased reps going forward. This week he will likely be boom-or-bust with his low amount of looks, but we could be seeing the emergence of Green in this offense happening sooner rather than later. If you like gambling, starting Green this week would be right up your ally.
Redskins @ Cardinals - Sunday 12/4 @ 4:25 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)
Target monster Larry Fitzgerald is due for a bounce back game this week against the Redskins. Last week without top CB Desmond Trufant, Fitz only caught all four of his targets for 53 yards. This usage was mainly due to Carson Palmer attempting to exploit other good matchups, which did not go so well. Luckily for Fitz this week, he will avoid the blanket coverage of Josh Norman, who normally lines up on the outside receiver. Fitz lines up in the slot for 70% of his snaps, so he will avoid Norman most of the day and get much easier matchups. Since the team’s bye in Week 9, he is tied for the team league in targets with David Johnson at 29. He is also tied for third in the league in red zone targets with 16 this season. Expect a much better day for Fitzgerald on Sunday, with this game expecting to be one of the higher scoring affairs of the day.
David Johnson (RB, ARI)
The matchup-proof David Johnson finds himself in a very favorable matchup this week. The Redskins run defense has given up the seventh most fantasy points to the RB position, including 13 rushing TD which is second most in the league. Johnson has eclipsed 100 or more total yards in 12 straight games, using his feet and his hands to create plays. Johnson leads the NFL this season in all-purpose yards with 1,534 yards. Even though he dislocated his finger against Atlanta last week, he is expected to be used at full capacity this week and not lose any time in passing situations. The easiest decision you will make all week is keeping Johnson stapled in your RB1 slot.
Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS)
Crowder finds himself in a nice spot heading into this weeks’ set of games. He has at least 85 receiving yards and/or a touchdown in six straight games now. Even with the return of DeSean Jackson two weeks ago, Crowder’s role in the offense has remained unchanged. The Cardinals defense has done well against opposing WR this season, but Crowder may be able to break the mold against them. Last week the Falcons threw less than normal to Julio Jones, while secondary option Taylor Gabriel finished the day with four catches for 75 yards and two TD. Adam Thielen and Jeremy Kerley were also able to reach the end zone on this defense recently. Crowder only has one less red zone target than Fitzgerald this season (15 for Crowder) which places him tied for sixth overall in the league. With Jordan Reed also not expected to play this week, Crowder should see some extra targets on Sunday and an added red zone look or two. He is a strong Week 13 play in all leagues.
Matchups We Hate
Vernon Davis (TE, WAS)
With Jordan Reed out, Vernon Davis becomes the de facto TE1 in this offense. When Reed has been out in the past, Davis has filled in well; in Weeks 6 and 7 Davis caught a combined 10 passes for 129 yards and a TD. The way Washington utilizes their TE should make him relatively matchup proof, but this is the most difficult matchup a TE can have. Arizona has given up the least amount of fantasy points to the TE position this season, allowing an average three receptions for 26 yards per game. They have allowed a league-low 282 passing yards to the position, 20 yards less than the next closest team. They have not allowed a TD to a TE yet this season. If you own Reed and Davis you’re likely OK with starting Davis, just keep your expectations in check. This lineup has already shut down Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham in recent weeks.
Robert Kelley (RB, WAS)
Since taking over as the early-down back, Robert Kelley has given fantasy owners a spark at the RB position. From Weeks 8-to-11 we saw how well he can produce if the game flow goes his way, and on Thanksgiving we saw what happens if the Redskins get down. He has potential to lose snaps to passing-down specialist Chris Thompson if the game gets out of hand. This game should be relatively close, but the Cardinals front seven is among the best at stopping the run. They have allowed the second fewest points to the RB position this season, and have held them to 2.62 YPC since their bye week. In those three games since the bye, they have allowed four rushing scores, so the possibility for Kelley to save his production with a score is there. However, starting a TD-dependent player makes for a risky fantasy proposition.
Notable Players
DeSean Jackson (WR, WAS)
Jackson has done very well for himself in his first two games since his return from injury. He has received 14 targets (second on the team over that span), catching eight of them for 169 yards and two TD. His ability to stretch the field makes him a tough matchup for opposing defenses. Of all the Redskins receivers, he is the most likely to draw shutdown CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson is one of the best in the league, but even the best are capable of being burned by a speedster. Jackson has a very low floor this week, needing a bit play to save his fantasy day.
Panthers @ Seahawks - Sunday 12/4 @ 8:30 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA)
This will be a great matchup for Seahawks slot receiver Doug Baldwin. Over the past six weeks, Baldwin has at least six receptions in four games, and one of the games he didn’t catch six he caught four for 104 yards. During that span he has a team-leading 42 targets, with the next closest WR having only 33 (Jermaine Kearse). Carolina has given up the 10th most fantasy points to the WR position this season, and last week was torched by Michael Crabtree for 110 yards on eight receptions. The highest volume player on an improving offense, look for Seattle to have a much better game at home this week compared to last weeks’ road game against the Buccaneers.
Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA)
Second on the team in targets over the past six weeks is Graham, with 39 total. He has regained his former glory this season, after an injury riddled season last year. This should be a great matchup for him this week, because the Panthers have given up the third most fantasy points overall to the TE position. They have given up the third most touchdowns to opposing TE this season (eight, two teams above them tied with nine), and the 13th most yards. What can’t be understated is how the loss of top LB Luke Keuchly has affected this defense. Last week normally forgotten TE Clive Walford caught three passes for 43 yards and a TD against this defense, which was his best week since Week 2. Graham is going to cause a big matchup problem for this defense un Sunday unless they can make some drastic coverages changes.
Matchups We Hate
Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR)
This is going to be another matchup that is tough on these RB. Stewart has shown us over the past few weeks how low his floor can be and how high his ceiling is. Last week he rushed 17 times for 96 yards with two TD, including a long 47-yard scamper. The week before that he rushed 18 times, but for only 31 yards, luckily getting a TD to save his fantasy day. He has been good against the Seahawks over his last four meetings, averaging 4.9 YPC. This Seattle run defense has given up the seventh fewest fantasy points to the RB position this season, limiting lead backs to 3.58 YPC over the past three weeks. Even with Stewart’s recent success against Seattle, this matchup is not going to be easy. He has a very low floor with his lack of receptions, and will likely need to reach the end zone to have a productive day.
Thomas Rawls (RB, SEA)
After looking good in his first game back from injury, Rawls took a step back last week rushing only 12 times for 38 yards. Early on in the game Seattle got down early, and Rawls was replaced on a good amount of passing downs for George Farmer (who?). Against a Panthers defense giving up the fourth least fantasy points to opposing RB this season Rawls will be extremely dependent on his volume to have a productive week. If Seattle gets down early, Rawls will struggle to get anything going. He had three receptions in his first game back, so he is capable of making an impact in the passing game if needed. Another week of getting his body ready should help him, but this matchup will still be a big test for the young RB.
Notable Players
Kelvin Benjamin (WR, CAR)
Since the Panthers Week 7 bye week, Benjamin is second on the team in targets to Ted Ginn. Though he has seen his target totals drop a bit of late, Benjamin still has 70 or more yards and/or a touchdown in nine of 11 games this season. He will likely draw coverage from Richard Sherman, but because Sherman stays to one side of the field he could find some relief as the game goes on. Mike Evans, Julian Edelman, and even Robert Woods (top Bills WR with Watkins out at the time) put up big days on this defense, meaning the opportunity is there for him to have a good game if he can shake the coverage of Sherman.
