Week 13 Red Zone Risers and Fallers

So I was thinking, why are the red zone risers and fallers so important, and then I came across this article from Sharp Football Analysis, and suddenly it all made sense. "In the past decade, 74.1% of all offensive touchdowns have come from the red zone." And if you come across defenses that are stingy in the red zone trips of their opponents, then you know you have potential for kicker scoring (if you still believe in that stuff).

You know what that means: more tables and facts, but hopefully, more information will help you dominate your fantasy league.

Thanks to Footballguys.com, teamrankings.com, flurrysports.com, sharpfootballanalysis.com, and rotoballer.com.

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Top Team Red Zone Scoring%

(TD ONLY) AND THEIR TOP PLAYERS

TEAM	% TD IN RED ZONE	QB STATS INSIDE 20-YARD LINE	RECEIVING TARGETS INSIDE 20-YARD LINE	RB TARGETS INSIDE 20-YARD LINE	WEEK 13 OPPONENT
San Francisco	77.42%	Jimmy Garoppolo=36 attempts, 20 completions, 10 touchdowns			Seattle Seahawks
New Orleans Saints	71.05%				Played Dallas Cowboys
Arizona Cardinals	70.45%				Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals	70.00%	Joe Burrow= 35 attempts, 20 completions, 10 touchdowns, 2 interceptions		Joe Mixon= 24 attempts, 9 touchdowns	Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle Seahawks	68.%				San Francisco Niners
Minnesota Vikings	67.65%	Kirk Cousins= 47 attempts, 30 completions, 16 touchdowns	Justin Jefferson=13 targets, 7 receptions, 4 touchdowns Adam Thielen=12 targets, 10 receptions, 7 touchdowns	Dalvin Cook= 37 attempts, four touchdowns (2nd ranked)	Detroit Lions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	66.00%	Tom Brady= 90 attempts, 53 completions, 21 touchdowns (1st ranked)	Chris Godwin= 19 targets, 15 receptions, 5 touchdowns Mike Evans= 14 targets, 9 receptions, 6 touchdowns Leonard Fournette 12 targets, 8 receptions, 1 touchdown	Leonard Fournette= 36 attempts, 6 touchdowns (3rd ranked)	Atlanta Falcons
Philadelphia Eagles	65.85%			Jalen Hurts= 27 attempts, 7 touchdowns	New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens	65.71%	Lamar Jackson= 39 attempts, 22 completions, 11 touchdowns, 1 interception	Mark Andrews= 11 targets, 6 receptions, 5 touchdowns		Pittsburgh Steelers
Tennessee Titans	62.22%	Ryan Tannehill= 56 attempts, 32 completions, 12 touchdowns, 3 interceptions			Bye Week
Los Angeles Chargers	61.70%	Justin Herbert= 61 attempts, 36 completions, 18 touchdowns, 1 interception	Keenan Allen= 14 targets, 9 receptions, 2 touchdowns	Austin Ekeler= 31 attempts, 7 touchdowns	Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills	61.70%	Josh Allen= 71 attempts, 44 completions, 18 touchdowns, 1 interceptions	Stefon Diggs= 20 targets, 13 receptions, 7 touchdowns	Zack Moss= 23 attempts, 4 touchdowns	New England Patriots
Dallas Cowboys	60.98%	Dak Prescott= 54 attempts, 32 completions, 13 touchdowns, 1 interception		Ezekiel Elliott= 27 attempts, 8 touchdowns	Played New Orleans Saints

What Do We Know From This?

Players have to be in the top 18 to be included in stats in the above graph.

San Francisco Niners

The Niners have remained on top of the heap as a team in their red-zone efficiency, although they have fallen from 79.17% to 77.42% efficient in the red zone.

The true risers in the red zone have been the New Orleans Saints, obviously explained as the Taysom Hill effect.  The Saints went from 69.70% efficient to 71.05% efficient in the red zone.

Red Zone Fallers

The Baltimore Ravens and the Seattle Seahawks have taken a plunge in their red-zone efficiency (scoring touchdowns).  The Ravens have fallen from fifth to ninth, while the Seahawks went from being the second-most efficient team to the fifth.

 

Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring%

(TD ONLY)

These are teams that are hard to score against in the red zone and their Week 11 opponents.  These players will be natural red zone fallers.

TEAM	% TD ALLOWED IN RED ZONE	WEEK 13 OPPONENT	POTENTIAL FALLER	THE MORE YOU KNOW
BALTIMORE RAVENS	42.86%	Pittsburgh Steelers	Pat Freiermuth	Freiermuth is the sixth-most efficient red-zone receiver with 15 targets, 10 receptions, and 6 touchdowns. He has 25.9% of the team's red-zone targets
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS	47.22%	PLAYED TNF	PLAYED TNF	PLAYED TNF
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS	48.39%	Buffalo Bills	Stefon Diggs	Diggs is commanding 29.9% of the team's red-zone targets
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS	50.%	San Francisco Niners		Shanahan's offense has been running the ball 41 times per game over the last three games. Elijah Mitchell, since Week 7, averages 5.14 yards per game
MIAMI DOLPHINS	51.11%	New York Giants		Mike Glennon will be starting in place of Daniel Jones

MIAMI DOLPHINS	51.11%	New York Giants		Mike Glennon will be starting in place of Daniel Jones
PITTSBURGH STEELERS	51.35%	Baltimore Ravens	Mark Andrews	Andrews is responsible for 28.20% of the team's red-zone targets
BUFFALO BILLS	51.61%	New England Patriots	Hunter Henry	In week 12, the Patriots went 2 of 5 in the red zone

The Steelers' downward spiral looks to continue as the Ravens have only allowed 20% of teams to score in the red zone in the last three weeks.  Friermuth is in concussion protocol keep monitoring that situation.

Matt Brieda has taken over (temporarily?) rushing duties in Buffalo, but that Monday night game looks to be a slug-fest with the lowest over/under for the week (42) and the Bills only a 2.5-point favorite.

 

Teams Allowing Most Red-Zone TDs

TEAM/RANK	% TD ALLOWED	WEEK 11 OPPONENT	POTENTIAL RED ZONE RISER	WEEK 12 STATS
32nd LAS VEGAS RAIDERS	75.86%	WFT	Logan Thomas	6 targets, 3 receptions, 31 yards
DETROIT LIONS	75%	Minnesota Vikings	Justin Jefferson       Adam Thielen	9 targets, 4 receptions, 83 yards 7 targets, 5 receptions, 62 yards, 2 touchdowns
GREEN BAY PACKERS	71.88%	BYE WEEK	BYE WEEK	BYE WEEK
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS	71.05%	Houston Texans	Brandin Cooks (illness monitor progress)	5 targets, 3 receptions, 45 yards, touchdown
CAROLINA PANTHERS	69.70%	BYE WEEK	BYE WEEK	BYE WEEK
MINNESOTA VIKINGS	68.75%	Detroit Lions	Josh Reynolds	89% snap share 28 % team’s air yards
CLEVELAND BROWNS	68.42%	BYE WEEK	BYE WEEK	BYE WEEK
ATLANTA FALCONS	65.85%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Chris Godwin     Rob Gronkowski	21.8% team's red-zone targets   Advertising Gronkowski has 9 red-zone targets and is on the receiving end of 9.9% of the team's 91 red zone pass attempts
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS	65.12%	Cincinnati Bengals	Joe Burrow	Tee Higgins has led the team in target shares since Week 10…per PFF has the second-best matchup for any WR
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS	64.71	Denver Broncos	Melvin Gordon	Gordon has 24 attempts (inside 20-yard line) and 4 touchdowns

WHAT DO WE KNOW FROM THIS?

The Atlanta Falcons may be in for a world of hurt, going against the number one red zone passer (Brady 21 touchdowns inside 20, 17 touchdowns inside the 10), the third-ranked red zone rusher, Fournette ( six touchdowns inside the 20 and s touchdowns inside the 10), the third (Godwin) and eighth (Evans) ranked red zone receivers. Look for Gronkowski and Godwin to rise in the red zone this week.

Mixon, going against a porous Chargers defense, should rise in the red zone adding to his nine touchdowns inside the 20-yard line and his seven inside the 10-yard line.

 

Top Red-Zone Receivers for Week 13

Cooper Kupp: 23 targets inside the 20-yard line, nine touchdowns; 10 targets inside the 10-yard line, six touchdowns.  Going against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that allows 62.50% red-zone trips converted to touchdowns.  Potential riser.

Stefon Diggs: 2 targets inside 20-yard line, seven touchdowns; eight targets inside 10- yard line, four touchdowns. Potential faller against the third-ranked New England Patriots in the red zone.

Chris Godwin: 19 targets inside 20-yard line, five touchdowns; six targets inside 10-yard line, two touchdowns. Rising in the red zone against the 25^th ranked Atlanta Falcons.

Pat Friermuth: 15 targets inside the 20-yard line, six touchdowns; nine targets inside the 10-yard line, five touchdowns.  The potential faller is against the Ravens, who only allow 20% of attempts to be converted to touchdowns in the last three weeks.

Keenan Allen: 14 targets inside 20-yard line, two touchdowns; six targets inside 10-yard line, two touchdowns. Targets are there, but the touchdowns are not. The Bengals are meh in protecting the red-zone ranked 12^th. They allow 55.88% of attempts to be converted.

Mike Evans: 14 targets inside 20-yard line, six touchdowns; nine targets inside 10-yard line, six touchdowns. *See Chris Godwin*

Tyler Higbee: 14 targets inside the 20-yard line, three touchdowns, eight targets inside the 10-yard line, two touchdowns. Potential riser going against 21^st ranked Jacksonville.

Good Luck!

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