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Week 13 Red Zone Risers and Fallers

So I was thinking, why are the red zone risers and fallers so important, and then I came across this article from Sharp Football Analysis, and suddenly it all made sense. "In the past decade, 74.1% of all offensive touchdowns have come from the red zone." And if you come across defenses that are stingy in the red zone trips of their opponents, then you know you have potential for kicker scoring (if you still believe in that stuff).

You know what that means: more tables and facts, but hopefully, more information will help you dominate your fantasy league.

Thanks to Footballguys.com, teamrankings.com, flurrysports.com, sharpfootballanalysis.com, and rotoballer.com.

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Top Team Red Zone Scoring%

(TD ONLY) AND THEIR TOP PLAYERS

TEAM % TD IN RED ZONE QB STATS INSIDE 20-YARD LINE RECEIVING TARGETS INSIDE 20-YARD LINE RB TARGETS INSIDE 20-YARD LINE WEEK 13 OPPONENT
San Francisco 77.42% Jimmy Garoppolo=36 attempts, 20 completions, 10 touchdowns Seattle Seahawks
New Orleans Saints 71.05% Played Dallas Cowboys
Arizona Cardinals 70.45% Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals 70.00% Joe Burrow= 35 attempts, 20 completions, 10 touchdowns, 2 interceptions Joe Mixon= 24 attempts, 9 touchdowns Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle Seahawks 68.% San Francisco Niners
Minnesota Vikings 67.65% Kirk Cousins= 47 attempts, 30 completions, 16 touchdowns Justin Jefferson=13 targets, 7 receptions, 4 touchdowns

Adam Thielen=12 targets, 10 receptions, 7 touchdowns

Dalvin Cook= 37 attempts, four touchdowns (2nd ranked) Detroit Lions

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 66.00% Tom Brady= 90 attempts, 53 completions, 21 touchdowns (1st ranked) Chris Godwin= 19 targets, 15 receptions, 5 touchdowns

Mike Evans= 14 targets, 9 receptions, 6 touchdowns

Leonard Fournette 12 targets, 8 receptions, 1 touchdown

Leonard Fournette= 36 attempts, 6 touchdowns (3rd ranked) Atlanta Falcons

 

Philadelphia Eagles 65.85% Jalen Hurts= 27 attempts, 7 touchdowns New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens 65.71% Lamar Jackson= 39 attempts, 22 completions, 11 touchdowns, 1 interception Mark Andrews= 11 targets, 6 receptions, 5 touchdowns Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Tennessee Titans 62.22% Ryan Tannehill= 56 attempts, 32 completions, 12 touchdowns, 3 interceptions Bye Week
Los Angeles Chargers 61.70% Justin Herbert= 61 attempts, 36 completions, 18 touchdowns, 1 interception Keenan Allen= 14 targets, 9 receptions, 2 touchdowns

 

Austin Ekeler= 31 attempts, 7 touchdowns Cincinnati Bengals
Buffalo Bills 61.70% Josh Allen= 71 attempts, 44 completions, 18 touchdowns, 1 interceptions Stefon Diggs= 20 targets, 13 receptions, 7 touchdowns Zack Moss= 23 attempts, 4 touchdowns New England Patriots
Dallas Cowboys 60.98% Dak Prescott= 54 attempts, 32 completions, 13 touchdowns, 1 interception Ezekiel Elliott= 27 attempts, 8 touchdowns Played New Orleans Saints

What Do We Know From This?

Players have to be in the top 18 to be included in stats in the above graph.

San Francisco Niners

The Niners have remained on top of the heap as a team in their red-zone efficiency, although they have fallen from 79.17% to 77.42% efficient in the red zone.

The true risers in the red zone have been the New Orleans Saints, obviously explained as the Taysom Hill effect.  The Saints went from 69.70% efficient to 71.05% efficient in the red zone.

Red Zone Fallers

The Baltimore Ravens and the Seattle Seahawks have taken a plunge in their red-zone efficiency (scoring touchdowns).  The Ravens have fallen from fifth to ninth, while the Seahawks went from being the second-most efficient team to the fifth.

 

Team Opponent Red Zone Scoring%

(TD ONLY)

These are teams that are hard to score against in the red zone and their Week 11 opponents.  These players will be natural red zone fallers.

TEAM % TD ALLOWED IN RED ZONE WEEK 13 OPPONENT POTENTIAL FALLER THE MORE YOU KNOW
BALTIMORE RAVENS 42.86% Pittsburgh Steelers Pat Freiermuth Freiermuth is the sixth-most efficient red-zone receiver with 15 targets, 10 receptions, and 6 touchdowns.

He has 25.9% of the team's red-zone targets

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 47.22% PLAYED TNF PLAYED TNF PLAYED TNF
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 48.39% Buffalo Bills Stefon Diggs Diggs is commanding 29.9% of the team's red-zone targets
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 50.% San Francisco Niners Shanahan's offense has been running the ball 41 times per game over the last three games.

Elijah Mitchell, since Week 7, averages 5.14 yards per game

MIAMI DOLPHINS 51.11% New York Giants Mike Glennon will be starting in place of Daniel Jones
MIAMI DOLPHINS 51.11% New York Giants Mike Glennon will be starting in place of Daniel Jones
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 51.35% Baltimore Ravens Mark Andrews Andrews is responsible for 28.20% of the team's red-zone targets
BUFFALO BILLS 51.61% New England Patriots Hunter Henry In week 12, the Patriots went 2 of 5 in the red zone

The Steelers' downward spiral looks to continue as the Ravens have only allowed 20% of teams to score in the red zone in the last three weeks.  Friermuth is in concussion protocol keep monitoring that situation.

Matt Brieda has taken over (temporarily?) rushing duties in Buffalo, but that Monday night game looks to be a slug-fest with the lowest over/under for the week (42) and the Bills only a 2.5-point favorite.

 

Teams Allowing Most Red-Zone TDs

TEAM/RANK % TD ALLOWED WEEK 11 OPPONENT POTENTIAL RED ZONE RISER WEEK 12 STATS
32nd LAS VEGAS RAIDERS 75.86% WFT Logan Thomas 6 targets, 3 receptions, 31 yards
DETROIT LIONS 75% Minnesota Vikings Justin Jefferson

 

 

 

Adam Thielen

9 targets, 4 receptions, 83 yards

7 targets, 5 receptions, 62 yards, 2 touchdowns

GREEN BAY PACKERS 71.88% BYE WEEK BYE WEEK BYE WEEK
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 71.05% Houston Texans Brandin Cooks (illness monitor progress) 5 targets, 3 receptions, 45 yards, touchdown
CAROLINA PANTHERS 69.70% BYE WEEK BYE WEEK BYE WEEK
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 68.75% Detroit Lions Josh Reynolds 89% snap share 28 % team’s air yards
CLEVELAND BROWNS 68.42% BYE WEEK BYE WEEK BYE WEEK
ATLANTA FALCONS 65.85% Tampa Bay Buccaneers Chris Godwin

 

 

Rob Gronkowski

21.8% team's red-zone targets

 

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Gronkowski has 9 red-zone targets and is on the receiving end of 9.9% of the team's 91 red zone pass attempts

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 65.12% Cincinnati Bengals Joe Burrow Tee Higgins has led the team in target shares since Week 10…per PFF has the second-best matchup for any WR
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 64.71 Denver Broncos Melvin Gordon Gordon has 24 attempts (inside 20-yard line) and 4 touchdowns

WHAT DO WE KNOW FROM THIS?

The Atlanta Falcons may be in for a world of hurt, going against the number one red zone passer (Brady 21 touchdowns inside 20, 17 touchdowns inside the 10), the third-ranked red zone rusher, Fournette ( six touchdowns inside the 20 and s touchdowns inside the 10), the third (Godwin) and eighth (Evans) ranked red zone receivers. Look for Gronkowski and Godwin to rise in the red zone this week.

Mixon, going against a porous Chargers defense, should rise in the red zone adding to his nine touchdowns inside the 20-yard line and his seven inside the 10-yard line.

 

Top Red-Zone Receivers for Week 13

Cooper Kupp: 23 targets inside the 20-yard line, nine touchdowns; 10 targets inside the 10-yard line, six touchdowns.  Going against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that allows 62.50% red-zone trips converted to touchdowns.  Potential riser.

Stefon Diggs: 2 targets inside 20-yard line, seven touchdowns; eight targets inside 10- yard line, four touchdowns. Potential faller against the third-ranked New England Patriots in the red zone.

Chris Godwin: 19 targets inside 20-yard line, five touchdowns; six targets inside 10-yard line, two touchdowns. Rising in the red zone against the 25th ranked Atlanta Falcons.

Pat Friermuth: 15 targets inside the 20-yard line, six touchdowns; nine targets inside the 10-yard line, five touchdowns.  The potential faller is against the Ravens, who only allow 20% of attempts to be converted to touchdowns in the last three weeks.

Keenan Allen: 14 targets inside 20-yard line, two touchdowns; six targets inside 10-yard line, two touchdowns. Targets are there, but the touchdowns are not. The Bengals are meh in protecting the red-zone ranked 12th. They allow 55.88% of attempts to be converted.

Mike Evans: 14 targets inside 20-yard line, six touchdowns; nine targets inside 10-yard line, six touchdowns. *See Chris Godwin*

Tyler Higbee: 14 targets inside the 20-yard line, three touchdowns, eight targets inside the 10-yard line, two touchdowns. Potential riser going against 21st ranked Jacksonville.

Good Luck!



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