Week 15 IDP Fantasy Football Rankings

I will be the absolute first in the world to say this, but COVID-19 isn’t great. In fact, at the risk of being controversial, I’ll say COVID is bad! I know that’s a hot take, but I’m sticking with it. If COVID were a food, it’d be the equivalent of taking a wonderful Taco Bell Chalupa and stuffing it with rotten cottage cheese and baby diapers.

Of course, COVID in general is old news for many. Most of us have been there, done that, and got the t-shirt… or the vaccine. However, we must mention COVID here because the NFL is currently experiencing the biggest outbreak of the season. This outbreak has shut down team facilities in Cleveland and Los Angeles, and it is causing a good number of fantasy-relevant players to be labeled as "OUT," even if those players have some chance to play. It's also leading to a fun sort of confusion that leaves fantasy managers twisting in the wind during their opening playoff week, not knowing if they need to drop or add a player with COVID next to their name.

This week alone, we have IDP relevant defenders like Jevon Holland, Xavier McKinney, John Johnson III, Malik Reed, Kamu Grugier-Hill, Christian Kirksey, Jordan Fuller, Jalen Ramsey, Kendall Fuller, Cameron Jordan, Tracy Walker, and Jonathan Allen all labeled as OUT with the virus. While it’s certainly possible, and perhaps likely, that some of these players are activated by Sunday, it's difficult to know which ones will and won't be available this week. Though this inconvenience is certainly not nearly as important as every player's health, these designations are important to IDP rosters, and they are worth monitoring closely. In these rankings, we will be cautious and include COVID designated players who still have a reasonable chance to play, but be aware the status of each of these players is concerning, and their teammates could still be at risk…. And with that said, let's get to our IDP rankings, shall we?

Top-30 Fantasy Defensive Linemen of the Week

DL Streamer of the Week: Leonard Floyd, Los Angeles Rams

This one may be a bit of a cheat code, considering Floyd has been a DL2 for us most of the season, but we must consider industry expectations. It's worth noting that right now, multiple prominent fantasy outlets have Floyd ranked as a DL3 or worse for Week 15. Some of the industry concern seems related to the zero sacks allowed by Seattle’s offensive line last weekend, while others worry about their newfound run game. Either way, these concerns have gone too far.

We are currently projecting Floyd to solidly outperform industry expectations this week. Seattle’s offensive line ranks second-to-last in Adjusted Sack Rate this season, and it’s worth noting Floyd and Aaron Donald have combined for 11 total sacks against Russell Wilson over the past two years. While we like Aaron Donald to have the bigger game, Floyd should also be considered a high upside play in the first round of your playoffs. Don’t buy the DL3 slander going around on him this week.

Bonus Boom-or-Bust Streamers: If you are looking for high-upside DLs who are available in more leagues than Floyd, consider Tyus Bowser and Odafe Oweh as interesting lottery tickets. Their floor is low against an above-average Packers offensive line, but Aaron Rodgers re-aggravated a foot injury against the Bears last week and matched his season-high in sacks (three) as a result. He could be easier to take down than usual.

DL Fade of the Week: Robert Quinn, Chicago Bears & Marcus Davenport, New Orleans Saints

This week is one in which many of you can be particularly picky about who you slot into your DL spot, even if you have to play two or three such starters. The reason for that is several-fold. First, we are finally done with bye-weeks so we have a full 32 NFL teams from which to choose. Second, half of your league has been eliminated and removed from waiver wire competition. Finally, and most importantly, there are a lot of attractive fantasy DL matchups this week.

With so many attractive matchups in the trenches this week, Robert Quinn has to fall down our ranks a little bit. Quinn’s opponent this week (Minnesota) is surprisingly allowing the second-fewest sacks in the NFL this season, despite having multiple issues along their offensive line. That spells trouble for a sack-dependent asset like Quinn. Additionally, Marcus Davenport also has a disadvantageous matchup against the Buccaneers and their league-low 17 sacks allowed. Both of these players have less than ideal matchups in a week where a lot of relevant DLs have good ones, so you should manage expectations.

Top-30 Fantasy Linebackers of the Week

LB Streamer of the Week: Ja’Whaun Bentley, New England Patriots

Over their past three games, the New England Patriots rank first in the NFL in terms of rush percentage… and the Colts sit third. Both offenses rush the ball on over half of their offensive snaps, and that formula has led to success. Expect these ball control teams to continue what’s working this week, especially since neither team is likely to seize a sizeable early lead.

If this game trends the way we expect, linebackers on both sides of the ball will be excellent plays in tackle premium IDP scoring. While Darius Leonard and Bobby Okereke are already starting in many leagues, Bentley is available in a vast majority of formats. The Purdue product has played on over 70% of the defensive snaps for New England in each of his past four games, and he's one of the team's most reliable tacklers. He should feed off of Jonathan Taylor's excellence in Week 15.

LB Fade of the Week: Isaiah Simmons, Arizona Cardinals

We really want Simmons to be a star in fantasy. His talent is astounding, and he's certainly shown flashes of brilliance throughout the season. The Clemson product's playing time and big-play ability are both elite, too. With all of that said, we just can't force Simmons into our top-15 anymore.

While this versatile threat will always offer big-play upside and a high-tackle ceiling, he just isn't reliable enough to consider a high-end LB2 right now. He's had six games with three or fewer solo tackles this season while producing only five pass deflections and just 1.5 sacks. While his four turnovers are nice, as are his three contests with six or more solo tackles, the consistency just isn't there right now. Mind you, we are confident Simmons' breakout will come, but most of you can't bet your fantasy survival on that breakout happening against a low-volume Lions offense (62 plays per game) this week. Simmons is an LB3 right now, even if his upside has most of us (including Yours Truly) wanting him higher.

Top-30 Fantasy Defensive Backs of the Week

DB Streamer of the Week: Jordan Whitehead, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since Taysom Hill took over at quarterback in Week 14, the Saints have called a designed run on 53% of their plays. That doesn't factor in improvised runs by Hill, either. That script bodes well for Jordan Whitehead, who spends 42% of his time at the line or in the box.

The opportunities for Whitehead won't disappear if the Saints have to pass, however. When the Cowboys' offense forced Hill to toss 41 passes two weeks ago, the injured Saint tossed four interceptions and completed a mere 46% of his throws.  Those stats back up the poor 22.9% Bad Throw rate that Pro-Football-Reference gives Hill on the season. With a broken finger, bad decision making, and a propensity for running the ball, Hill makes for a particularly promising fantasy matchup for a versatile safety like Whitehead.

DB Fade of the Week: Marshon Lattimore, New Orleans Saints

Our fade here has to do with industry expectations simply not lining up with his projected opportunities. While you are likely starting Lattimore if your league has a starting CB slot, the industry is currently overrating him as a DB2 this week.

We get why so many like Lattimore against the Bucs. He has a history of playing Mike Evans tough, and their matchups have rendered solid fantasy production in the past. However, things have changed since Tom Brady came to Tampa. In Lattimore’s four contests against the Bucs with Brady under center, he is averaging a mere 4.5 targets per game. In those games, his highest target total was six. Six targets won’t cut it against a quarterback who is on target over 75% of the time and is averaging 0.76 interceptions per contest.

Note: At the time of this writing, Jevon Holland was placed on the COVID-IR list, but it is unclear whether he will clear testing in time to play on Sunday. If the rookie were to be out on Sunday, as some beat writers believe will be the case, Brandon Jones would be elevated to #18 on this list, and Eric Rowe would enter the list at #26.

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