As we head into the crunch time of the playoffs, it’s becoming increasingly tougher to find some deep PPR plays you’d feel comfortable enough to start. As always, the best gauge is to measure risk versus reward with some of the players listed here being riskier than others.
Here’s a mini spoiler alert for you: the safest players you’ll see listed this week are by far Jared Cook and Latavius Murray for reasons we’ll get to in a bit. For now, take a moment to remember that the players you’ll see here are for deeper leagues consisting of at least 12 teams under a PPR format that reference the following scale:
Floor/Ceiling Scale: Low: 0-5 points, Medium: 6-12 points, High: 13-19 points, Very High: 20+ points
Week 15 Sneaky Starts & PPR Sleepers
Jared Cook (TE, STL)
40% Owned in Fleaflicker Leagues
Jared Cook of the St. Louis Rams faces an Arizona Cardinals team that is notoriously bad at defending against the tight end. The Cardinals give up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and have actually already been shredded by the position against St. Louis once already this season. I’m well aware of the fact that Cook has burned many fantasy players over the years with his consistent hype but when you’re searching for a deeper TE play, you’re really just trying to find the best matchup available and Cook certainly has that going for him this week. The consensus around TEs 8-15 is that you’re essentially just hoping for a touchdown so give me the guy with one of the better matchups in Week 15.
Floor: Medium, Ceiling: High (Matchup and usage should yield a solid outing for Cook this week.)
Martavis Bryant (WR, PIT)
57% Owned in Fleaflicker Leagues
Martavis Bryant is the first of two receivers you’ll see from the same game this week as I actually expect Sunday’s Steelers/Falcons matchup to be somewhat of a shootout. Both the Steelers and Falcons rank in the bottom 10 at passing yards allowed per game with the Falcons actually being dead last. Bryant has cooled off as of late despite last week’s big 95-yard touchdown against the Bengals but he’s still fully entrenched as Pittsburgh’s number two wide receiver, far surpassing Markus Wheaton.
There’s a pretty good chance Bryant is already owned in your league as evidenced by his 57% owned tag (the highest of any player you’ll see listed this week) so I should add that I’d be hesitant to add Wheaton if Bryant is unavailable. Wheaton hasn’t been anywhere close to as consistent as Bryant and with the Steelers utilizing guys like Heath Miller and Lance Moore as of late, I think there’s a good chance Wheaton is the odd man out in this potential shootout. In short, don’t go rushing to add any other wide receiver not named Martavis Bryant on the Steelers just because it might be a high scoring game.
Floor: Low, Ceiling: Very High (Bryant has shown he’s somewhat big-play dependent despite being the number two guy on the team. Still, the potential for a huge day in a shootout game can’t be ignored.)
Charles Johnson (WR, MIN)
12% Owned in Fleaflicker Leagues
Having written about Charles Johnson once before, I would like to reinforce that he has quietly developed into Minnesota’s preferred number one target. Over the last four games, Johnson has been targeted 29 times compared to 21 for Greg Jennings and a whopping six for Cordarrelle Patterson. Johnson’s biggest game of the season came just last week against an admittedly weak secondary in the New York Jets. That being said, when you’re looking for a wide receiver in a super deep league, Johnson is certainly worth a shot. It’s rare to find a guy getting the most targets on his team when you’re scouring that low. Granted, this is a tough matchup for the Vikings as they head to Detroit to face one of the league’s best defenses. Johnson is by no means a slam-dunk but he still qualifies as this week’s deepest play available.
Floor: Low, Ceiling: Very High (I could see the Vikings leaning on the pass should the run game struggle early. After all, the Lions have the best run defense in the league.)
Donte Moncrief (WR, IND)
19% Owned in Fleaflicker Leagues
With veteran wide receiver Reggie Wayne being hampered by age and lingering injuries this year, Moncrief has shown flashes of talent when given the opportunity. The most recent news on Wayne is that he is suffering from a torn triceps but will continue to play through the injury. You have to admire this 36 year old’s toughness despite him basically being relegated to a decoy at this point in his career. That being said, Indianapolis faces a Texans team that is giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this week. The obvious presumption is that when you consider the way Andrew Luck likes to spread the ball around, some receiver not-named T.Y. Hilton will get some looks. That’s where Moncrief steps in as a deep-league play.
Floor: Low, Ceiling: Very High (Moncrief has two big games on the year with 113 and 134 yards but he also has multiple duds as well. He’s boom or bust as with most deeper league plays.)
Harry Douglas (WR, ATL)*
12% Owned in Fleaflicker Leagues
Last week I threw in Andre Williams as an “asterisk” play should Rashad Jennings miss the New York Giants’ game against the Tennessee Titans. My thought was that Williams would basically receive all the work in a tasty matchup against Tennessee but to forget about it should Jennings end up getting the start. As it turns out, we were all completely duped by the New York coaching staff as Jennings was listed as active but only received three touches. Williams then proceeded to put up big numbers even with Jennings listed as “active.” Thanks for nothing, Giants. When situations like that arise, no fantasy analyst or owner is wrong in their decision; Jennings is the better player, so that’s whom you SHOULD be starting if both guys are active.
No one can help a coach’s decision to leave a player active when he clearly shouldn’t be yet he still decides give him three touches. It’s probably the most infuriating thing in fantasy that is completely out of our hands. With all that in mind, we’re left with yet another one of those predicaments this week as it pertains to Julio Jones and Harry Douglas. The Falcons are providing virtually no information on the status of Julio’s hip injury but at least we know that Douglas has been the number three receiver in Atlanta for years. He’s the most obvious non-traditional handcuff in the league such that whenever Roddy White or Julio Jones goes down with an injury, Douglas automatically fills in nicely. That’s what we should all expect should Julio end up missing Sunday’s bout with the Steelers.
Much like Rashad Jennings, Julio Jones is clearly the better player so should Julio start, conventional wisdom would be to forget about Douglas. Both you and I can commiserate together if we are once again duped by a funky coach’s decision to activate a guy and not use him.
Floor: Medium, Ceiling: Very High (Again, this only applies if Julio Jones is out. Douglas would certainly get work and any Falcons wide receiver can go off when given the opportunity.)
Latavius Murray (RB, OAK)
50% Owned in Fleaflicker Leagues
Since I have once again given you an asterisk play, here’s a bonus player for the week in Latavius Murray. The amazing thing about Murray is that the Oakland Raiders waited till about twelve weeks into the season to even see what they had in the guy. They then proceeded to treat us like we couldn’t see the footage of him running all over Kansas City in stating they didn’t want him to be a workhorse back. Sure enough, the Raiders proved to be lying about that, and gave Murray 23 carries for 76 yards. This late into the season, it’s almost impossible to find a running back getting the bulk of the work and can actually produce who is available in 50% of leagues. Coincidentally, the Raiders just happen to be playing the Chiefs again this week so wouldn’t it be amazing to see Murray rip them one more time? If there’s one deep running back that shouldn’t burn you in balancing workload and production, it’s Murray. I much prefer him over the Matt Asiatas of the world or anyone in Jacksonville/Arizona filling in for Denard Robinson/Andre Ellington where workload is a giant question mark.
Floor: Medium, Ceiling: High (He’s not a top 10 back by any means so don’t expect a 200 yard day but where there’s workload, there’s a slim chance he gets you a zero.)