RADIO
Nothing affects a player’s fantasy value more than trades or injuries. Trades give players new teammates and new roles that normally benefit them, while injuries usually open doors to additional ice time and chances to rack up goals, saves, assists and wins that they wouldn’t have had. This week both trades and injuries are the main reasons why three of the four guys in this column have seen their fantasy futures directly affected.
Here are this week’s buy-low and sell-high candidates:
Week 16 Fantasy Hockey Buy-Low Players
Carl Hagelin - LW, PIT
When Hagelin was traded by the New York Rangers to the Anaheim Ducks in the offseason, many fantasy experts probably thought this would be a boon to his fantasy value. They envisioned Hagelin playing on the top line with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry and scoring 25 goals and 50 points after four seasons of being a defensive-minded role player with the Rangers. But Hagelin was as dreadful as flat soda or burnt pizza. He only managed four goals, four assists and a minus-9 rating in 44 games with the Ducks. By the end of his stint he was playing as much with Perry and Getzlaf as I was.
Hagelin has a new lease on life after being traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Pens wasted no time putting him with two of their best players as Hagelin skated on a line with Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel in his first game. It did not result in any points for Hagelin, but he was a plus-1 and had four shots on goal. In his second game with the Pens, Hagelin recorded an assist. You would think that playing on a better team with more skilled players is going to make Hagelin’s lowly fantasy value shoot up to at least average levels. While Hagelin has wonderful wheels, he is not a goal scorer. He creates scoring chances with his speed and gets shots on net, but they normally don’t go in. But if he regularly plays with Malkin, Kessel and/or Sidney Crosby, he will score point via osmosis. Go after him now while his fantasy value is still in the negatives.
Brian Elliott - G, STL
St. Louis starting goaltender Jake Allen was in the midst of a stellar season until he injured his knee last week and caused his fantasy owners to develop ulcers. Now he is out indefinitely and Elliott becomes the lucky benefactor. Blessed with a solid defensive corps in front of him and Ken Hitchcock’s defensive-first system making sure he is not left stopping too many two-on-ones, Elliott should be one of the more valuable fantasy goalies over the next couple weeks.
Elliott is 4-1-2 with a .925 save percentage in seven January starts, so he is more than holding his own as his workload has increased. He has been a starter many times before, so being up to the challenge should not be an issue. If you want to trade for him or pick him up, do it now before his next stretch of games where he will be the starting netminder each evening. This is Elliott’s opportunity to stake claim to splitting starts with Allen once Allen returns from the I.R.
Week 16 Fantasy Hockey Sell-High Players
Henrik Zetterberg - LW, DET
Zetterberg is still producing for fantasy owners (30 points in 45 games) after years and years of being one of the most productive players in the NHL. But Father Time is starting to hook and hold him. Even though he is still scoring more often that the average forwards in the league, Zetterberg has quietly scored just three points over his last 11 games. And while Zetterberg is well-known in fantasy circles to be a point-per-game player, he is 35 years old and seems to be a step slower, so odds are that this recent scoring slump is not just a fluke and could be a foreshadowing of his fantasy future.
Zetterberg is also overdue for an injury after playing in 77 games last season and being the bastion of health this season. He missed 73 games between 2012 and 2014 as a myriad of major injuries shut him down. The next check he receives could be his last for a couple weeks or months. Detroit is being taken over by younger snipes like Dylan Larkin, Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist. I would sell high on Zetterberg while his name still holds lots of value in fantasy hockey.
Brandon Saad, - LW, CLB
Saad is a goal scorer, but he is a goal scorer who needs the help of a playmaking center. While he has greyhound-like speed to keep pace with the fastest skaters in the sport, he has not mastered the art of getting open without the puck and making his own scoring chances. But while his career-high in goals was just 23 after three seasons with the Chicago Blackhawks, he was on pace to break the 25-goal barrier with the Blue Jackets this season with Ryan Johansen playing alongside him…until Columbus traded Johansen away.
Saad has no goals and two assists in the five games since Johansen was dealt to Nashville. Columbus no longer has a true No. 1 center, so Saad is stuck playing with Brandon Dubinsky, a gritty, well-rounded player that is no Wayne Gretzky offensively. Dubinsky has never scored 55 points in a season before. He does not elevate the play of the wings that play beside him. Going from Johansen to Dubinsky as his main centerman is not going to turn Saad into that 30-goal scorer fantasy owners project him to be. Until the Blue Jackets make another move to acquire a true playmaking center to be Saad’s prime passer, I would get what I can for him.
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