RADIO
Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season is officially in the books. We finally have real data to dissect. Overreactions will undoubtedly be made, but there's also a lot of good information we can use to help make decisions as we head into Week 2 and beyond.
In this weekly column, we'll be looking at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about certain players.
Here are the key risers and fallers coming out of Week 1 of the NFL season.
Week 2 Fantasy Football Risers
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons
Damien Williams got banged up early in Week 1, but it probably wouldn’t have mattered much anyhow. Patterson is clearly the much more effective player at this point in both of their respective careers. Since joining the Falcons, all Patterson has done is produce. Including Week 1 of the 2022 season, he has now scored 12 total touchdowns in 17 career games with Atlanta.
His 27 opportunities on Sunday were a new career high. Even with another running back in the fold moving forward (whether it be Williams or rookie Tyler Allgeier), expect Patterson to continue to be used as a Swiss-army knife for an underrated offense with Marcus Mariota at the helm. Selling high last season was a net negative and doing so again this season probably isn’t the right move either.
Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
One thing we know for sure, Sean McVay and the Los Angeles Rams love to feature one running back. In fact, last season, the feature back for the Rams (no matter if it was Henderson or Sony Michel) saw greater than a 70% snap share in 12 of 17 games. In Week 1, those honors were given to Henderson, who played on 82% of the snaps and received 85.7% of the RB opportunities (18 to Cam Akers’ three).
After the game, when asked about Akers, McVay told reporters that he wanted to see “an increased level of urgency and accountability” from him. That doesn’t sound like a guy who’s going to get his job back anytime soon. And it doesn’t help that Henderson looked pretty good despite the blowout loss to the Bills. In fantasy football, the Rams’ starter is always going to be valuable, and right now, that’s most definitely Darrell Henderson.
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
People wondered if Brown could command targets in Philly alongside DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert like he did in Tennessee the first three years of his career. He answered that question and some in Week 1, commanding a ridiculous 44% target share from Jalen Hurts. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Brown accounted for 72.8% of the Eagles’ total air yards. Justin Jefferson was the only other receiver over 70%. No other player accounted for more than 57.7% of their team’s air yards.
Brown was so dominant that Smith, who commanded a 22% target share as a rookie, didn’t catch a single pass on just four targets. Better days are ahead for DeVonta, but that just goes to show you how dominant Brown can be playing with his best friend in Jalen Hurts. It’s possible Hurts spreads the ball around more in future games depending on what the defense is giving him, but Brown is still a near lock to lead this team in targets when all is said and done.
A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones played more snaps in Week 1 (61% vs. 51%), but it was Dillon who out-touched the veteran (15 vs. 8) and found the endzone. In fact, Dillon had one more target (six) than Jones (five). The 11 running back targets came after an offseason where Aaron Rodgers said he wanted both of his backs to have 50 catches this season. Maybe he wasn’t kidding. The six targets for Dillon are significant considering he averaged just 2.2 per game a season ago.
These guys are going to split work all season long, but one had a Round 2 ADP (Jones), while the other somehow had a Round 6 ADP (Dillon). And it’s not like we didn’t see this coming. From Week 10 on last season, and including Week 1 of the 2022 season, Dillon has averaged 16.7 opportunities per game while Jones has averaged just 12.7 opportunities per game (in seven games played together). They’ll both have their moments, but it looks like Dillon will end up being the much better value of the two Packer backs this season.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
In his debut for the Jaguars, Kirk tied a career-high with 12 targets. He turned his 31.6% target share into 117 yards on six receptions. Per PFF, Kirk led all receivers with 113 receiving yards vs. single coverage in Week 1. A.J. Brown was second with 100 yards. Kirk was nothing short of spectacular in his debut as Trevor Lawrence’s new WR1. Kirk was also third amongst all receivers in air yards in Week 1 (128), behind just Davante Adams (177) and Brandin Cooks (131).
This production is nothing new for Kirk, he just needed a better opportunity. Recall, as the de facto WR1 in 2019 with the Cardinals, Kirk averaged 8.3 targets per game for a 25% target share. Once DeAndre Hopkins entered the picture in 2020, his target share dipped below 20%. As the lead dog in Jacksonville, Kirk should once again find himself as a target hog with a target share north of 25%. Lawrence attempted 42 passes in Week 1, which seems very good if you’re a Christian Kirk fantasy manager. Enjoy the ride!
Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons
We all knew Jalen Hurts, Trey Lance, and Justin Fields would run a lot this season. What we didn’t know was that Marcus Mariota would be second amongst all quarterbacks in designed runs in Week 1. Yup, that’s right, Mariota had eight designed runs against the Saints, which led to 72 yards and a touchdown on the ground. As a result, despite throwing for only 215 yards without a score, Mariota still finished the day with 19.8 fantasy points.
With three legitimate weapons at his disposal in Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Cordarrelle Patterson, expect Mariota to find some success this season. He’s Jalen Hurts-lite and it’s as if nobody saw it coming.
Other Risers: Curtis Samuel, Michael Thomas, James Conner, Kyle Philips, Rex Burkhead
Week 2 Fantasy Football Fallers
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
Update: original write-up is below, prior to the news of Ty Montgomery’s placement on IR – this likely gives Stevenson at least half of the RB opportunities and likely most of the passing down work as well. In all seriousness, Montgomery’s absence probably turns Stevenson from a “Faller” into a “Riser” heading into Week 2.
Original Write-Up (no longer valid, but sharing to help provide context): Remember when Stevenson was supposed to get all the passing-down work? Well, that didn’t come to fruition, at least in Week 1. In fact, both Damien Harris and Ty Montgomery both garnered more targets than Rhamondre.
Stevenson also played the fewest percentage of snaps (25%) of all the running backs. Harris played 39% of the snaps, while Ty Mont was on the field 37% of the time. His RB opportunity share was just 35.7%. That’s not going to get it done. It’s curious why the Patriots brought in Montgomery to take on the pass-catching role in New England, but remember, Josh McDaniels isn’t running the show anymore.
Unfortunately, it looks like it’ll take an injury to either Harris or Montgomery for Stevenson to be a recommended start moving forward. This whole write-up changes if that were to happen, as Rhamondre would be forced into a much more lucrative role in the New England backfield.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
See A.J. Dillon as a riser write-up. In a nutshell, Jones got just a 38.5% RB opportunity share, whereas his backfield running mate Dillon got a 61.5% opportunity share. What’s even more surprising to many is that Jones saw fewer targets (five) than Dillon (six) in a game the Packers played from behind. Both guys will be used in different situations, but it sure looks like Dillon has the edge over Jones, especially if he’s going to get the goal-line opportunities in addition to work in the passing game.
Kadarius Toney, New York Giants
After an offseason of being hyped up by the fantasy football community, Toney played on just 12% of the snaps in Week 1. That’s not a typo, Toney seriously played just 12% of the snaps. He didn’t draw a single target and rushed twice for 23 yards. He looked electric with the ball in his hands on one of those carries. However, not of that matters if he’s not going to be in good standing with Brian Daboll and the new coaching regime in New York.
The argument for Toney coming into this season was his efficiency and output when on the field. He was seventh in the league in TPRR (28.9%), 17th in yards per route run (2.13), and first in juke rate (66.7%) as a rookie. He’s shifty and a very underrated route runner, the problem is, he can’t seem to find a way to stay on the field, whether it be due to injury or other undisclosed reasons like we witnessed in Week 1.
Maybe he’s learned his lesson and Daboll puts him on the field, but the Giants also were able to come out victorious in Week 1 with Toney only playing 12% of the snaps. Buyer beware here as this could be a doghouse-type situation in New York.
Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
Ekeler’s usage in Week 1 was highly concerning for those that spent a first-round pick on him this season. In most leagues, Ekeler was a consensus top-eight pick amongst the elite running backs and wide receivers. However, he played just 49% of the snaps and accounted for just 58% of the RB touches.
Historically, Ekeler’s value has come from his ability as a pass-catcher. However, in Week 1, he ran just 13 routes, which was only two more than Joshua Kelley, and four more than Sony Michel. If it continues to be a three-headed monster in Los Angeles, Ekeler surely won’t pay off at his gaudy Round 1 ADP this season, especially when you consider his value in 2021 was propped up by scoring a whopping 20 touchdowns.
Robert Woods, Tennessee Titans
Woods ran the most routes of any Titan receiver (30), but only managed to draw two targets from Ryan Tannehill. That was good for just 6.7% of targets per route run (TPRR). Not great, but maybe he gets a pass for it being his first game coming off a torn ACL a season ago. However, in comparison, rookie Treylon Burks ran just 14 routes but ended up drawing five targets for a 35.7% TPRR. It’s only a matter of time before Burks becomes the WR1 in Tennessee, which means Woods takes even more of a backseat.
Unfortunately for Bobby Trees, there’s just not a lot of upside on a team that wants to run the ball a ton with Derrick Henry. And because there could be games where they throw it less than 30 times per game, there’s also a very low floor as well, as evidenced by his one catch for 13 yards on two target performance in Week 1.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
After commanding 93 targets in his sophomore campaign, many had Kmet pegged as a breakout candidate at the tight end position in 2022. He got off to a less-than-ideal start in Week 1, not catching a single pass on just one measly target. Many will chalk that up to the messy conditions in Chicago, but one target on 17 pass attempts from Justin Fields still equates to just a 5.9% target share.
Things could be different in Week 2, but remember, it’s a new coaching staff in Chicago. Fellow tight end Ryan Griffin could put a damper on Kmet's breakout season. Griffin played 31 snaps, ran 10 routes (just six fewer than Kmet), and was targeted by Fields twice. Give Kmet another shot in better conditions, but don’t go overboard thinking a breakout is on the horizon.
Other Fallers: David Njoku, Tyler Lockett, DeVonta Smith, Dameon Pierce, Amari Cooper
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