What's up RotoBallers? I'm here to analyze the Thursday night matchup with my start/sit recommendations. This week’s matchup puts two division foes against one another as the Jets step into New Era Field to face the Bills in their home opener. Both teams were unsuccessful last week, and will look to right the ship on short rest.
Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
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Jets @ Bills - Thursday 9/15 @ 8:25 PM EST
Matchups We Love
LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)
While the Jets were able to contain the combination of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, they face a RB who can do it all this week in LeSean McCoy. Last week against a good Ravens defense, Shady was the lone bright spot in the offense rushing for 58 yards on 16 carries and a touchdown, including four catches for 12 yards. Tyrod Taylor didn’t look sharp last week, so it is possible McCoy receives more than the 20 touches he got last week. Last season, McCoy torched this defense for 112 yards on 19 carries, including five catches for 47 yards. He has a great chance to be the Bills top offensive player again this week.
Matt Forte (RB, NYJ)
Matt Forte was used heavily during last week’s game against the Bengals, rushing 22 times for 96 yards, while also catching five passes for 59 yards. He was the most reliable option the Jets had on offense. The Bills are without All-Pro lineman Marcel Dareus for the first four weeks, and it showed as Justin Forsett ran for a 4.1 YPC and caught three passes for 15 yards. Forte still has a ton left in the tank, and against a depleted Bills defense Forte figures to have a solid game once again. He will be an RB1 option this week in fantasy, especially in PPR formats.
Eric Decker (WR, NYJ)
Eric Decker has been a touchdown machine since joining the Jets. Last season he recorded 12 TDs, and led the league in red zone targets at 28, five more than the next closest player. Last season in two games against the Bills, Decker caught 11 passes for 135 yards, and a TD in both games. He was able to find the endzone last week, and the trend figures to continue in Week 2. Feel confident rolling out Decker after his low catch effort last week. He will likely find the endzone again in this one.
Matchups We Hate
Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF)
Tyrod Taylor looked very ineffective last week against the Ravens. They were able to contain him in the pocket and not allow him to beat them with his legs, forcing him to pass the ball to beat them. He wasn’t able to do much, throwing for only 111 yards and no scores. Things don’t figure to get any easier this week against and even tougher Jets defense. Taylor will need to look to his playmakers to help him in this one. With starting tackle Cordy Glenn ruled out, Taylor will see plenty of pressure on Thursday. He will need to be able to read the field better than he did last week to find success.
Charles Clay (TE, BUF)
Charles Clay was underused offensively for most of last season, and the trend continued again on Sunday. On a day when the Bills had trouble getting things going offensively, Clay caught two passes on three targets for 40 yards. Unless Clay sees his targets increase it will be tough for him to have an affective game against the Jets, who allowed the third fewest fantasy points to TEs last season and only allowed two receptions to TEs in Week 1 of 2016. With the way the offense looked last week, I wouldn’t want to have to rely on Clay this week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, NYJ)
Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to have a tough time getting consistent play against a tough Bills secondary, which includes top CBs Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby. Fitzpatrick has had his troubles against Rex Ryan defenses also. In 12 games against Ryan defenses, Fitz has thrown for only has a 47.3% completion percentage and a 16:12 TD:INT ratio. Last season in two games, only threw for 374 yards (187 YPG) with a 4:5 TD:INT ratio. He is also not as effective on the road; last season he had a 20:7 ratio at home, and a 11:8 on the road. He is unlikely to find success in a ramped up Buffalo crowd.
Notable Players
Sammy Watkins (WR, BUF)
Earlier in the week it was reported that Sammy Watkins may miss significant time while dealing with his re-aggravated foot injury. When interviewed, Watkins himself said the news was overblown and it would only be a pain-tolerance issue. He didn’t feel the issue in preseason, but his foot was sore after the game. The next day it was OK, so there’s hope he can make it through this entire game. He will be facing Darrelle Revis, who just got absolutely torched by A.J. Green last week. If Watkins can play healthy, he has the talent level to make that happen again. His foot also may nag him all game long, limiting his effectiveness.
Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ)
Brandon Marshall will hope to improve on his disappointing start to 2016. Last week he caught only three passes on eight targets for 32 yards, including one drop that would have nearly doubled his yardage. While some of these misses were from off throws off the mark, Marshall didn’t look like the player we saw last season potentially due to his lingering hip issue. He will have a tough time against Stephon Gilmore on Thursday, who is a physical CB. He will need to make more plays than he did last week if he wants to find success, but if he is not at 100% Fitz can throw to Decker and Forte, who are competent pass catchers.