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Week 20 Rookie Roundup: Recently Promoted Prospects

Take a look at some of those Astros’ prospects starting to produce. A.J. Reed has hit three dingers already and Alex Bregman followed up his first career bomb with another one the following day. Sure Joe Musgrove got roughed up a bit, but a) It came against Baltimore and b) He has been stellar to this point.

Fantasy owners sometimes need to have patience with recently promoted prospects. It can take a few days to get going. Not everyone hits a home run in their first plate appearance (though two batters on this list did just that) and some take a few weeks to get going. Bregman may have scared some fantasy owners, but the wise ones will just simply sit him on the bench until he gets things going which is inevitable and, perhaps, in the very near future.

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Hitters

Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL) - 10% owned

Almost as soon as Erick Aybar was traded to the Tigers, Braves’ fans had to start wondering if it would be the time for Swanson to reach the big leagues. I have been saying since the beginning of the season that the Braves would, but when Aybar started tanking along with the Braves, it looked unlikely that Aybar would be moved. Also, it appeared unlikely the Braves would start Swanson’s service clock in a lost season. But nonetheless, Aybar was traded, Swanson was promoted and the new era at shortstop for Atlanta has begun.

And what an era it could potentially be. With a .261/.342/.402 slash with eight dingers and six swipes at Mississippi, Swanson has not crushed Double-A by any means and some would argue did little to warrant such a leap of faith. But fantasy owners have to at least be excited by the potential upside he brings. Scouts see a guy capable of launching double-digit bombs and swiping 20+ bags given some consistent ABs. Evaluators are also very excited by what they have seen in his approach to the plate and his quick bat, leading many to believe batting for a high average will not be much of an issue for him.

The Sutelans of Swing are in the tank this season, but nonetheless I made the investment in grabbing Swanson’s bat. Some are concerned that his performance at Double-A is an indicator that more time is needed to get adjusted to professional baseball. But his plate discipline numbers (18.8% K rate and 9.3% BB rate) are encouraging for someone so young. I also believe his batting average was hurt by a low .309 BABIP that should be higher given his ability to barrel up the bat and outrun infield groundballs. Swanson may not be productive enough to be worth owning in eight team leagues, but 10+ team leagues could certainly take a look at the 2015 first overall pick.

Aaron Judge (OF, NYY) - 15% owned

Sure, Swanson may be the most hyped of this week’s prospect promotions, but let’s face it, Judge sure is exciting too. Anyone who has received comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton in the past has to receive some measure of hype. The 6’7”, 275 lb outfielder is a physical beast and has raw power to spare. Most scouts believe that, though he has only one season in the past with 20 home runs, Judge will be able to produce much more in the future thanks to his immense strength and quick bat speed.

The time of turning that raw power into visible production starts now. At Yankee Stadium, Judge will play in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums and should be able to continue his production in the home run category. Past issues with strikeouts and a long swing lead many to believe that Judge will require some time before he is able to hit for a high average, but fantasy owners should be jumping all aboard the Judge train simply because of the dinger upside. With his potential to rank among the league leaders in home runs from the time he debuted to the end of the season combined with a consistent path to playing time, Judge is the kind of explosive bat fantasy owners in all leagues should be ready to steal off the waiver wire.

Tyler Austin (1B/OF, NYY) - 4% owned

Everyone got all excited about Tyler Austin when he debuted. No offense to Austin, but it was probably more for going back-to-back with Aaron Judge in their first ABs than for his potential upside. Sure his production at Triple-A of a .323/.415/.537 slash with 13 homers was nice, but there is reason to approach him with a bit of caution.

For starters, the first baseman has a previous season-high of 17 home runs . . . four years ago between Rookie League, Class-A and High-A. Since then, he has yet to produce a season with double-digit home run totals. Sure, he has put together seasons with a high batting average, but this is the first season he has hit over .272 at a level higher than High-A. I don’t want to pour water over what could be one of the few exciting moments of 2016 for Yankee fans, but there is not too much to look forward to in the future with Austin. He can be ignored in most fantasy formats.

Mitch Haniger (OF, ARI) - 1% owned

Talk about an explosive Triple-A campaign, look at what Haniger put up in Reno! .351/.437/.697 slash with 19 dingers and six steals with a 20.7% strikeout rate and 12.5% walk rate. He absolutely crushed Triple-A and has started in back-to-back games to open up his big league career. Is there something here for fantasy owners?

Haniger should definitely be viewed as a potential sleeper in 12+ team leagues. The Diamondbacks have used 10 different players in the outfield this season and only five have a WAR over 0.0 (one of them is Haniger despite only two games played) and none have a WAR above 1.0. Haniger has demonstrated in the past that his ability to hit for power is no fluke and scouts believe that he probably has 15-20 home run pop given a full body of work. Most believe his career role will be as more of a utility outfielder capable of providing adequate offensive production at all three parts of the field. And at this point in 2016, the Diamondbacks have nothing to lose and are probably going to start using the young outfielder more frequently than veteran journeymen like Michael Bourn and Rickie Weeks. Combine playing time with some solid power upside, and you’ve got yourself a pretty solid sleeper candidate in redraft leagues.

Chad Pinder (2B/SS, OAK) - 0% owned

After putting together a solid power showing at Triple-A, Pinder was promoted to the Oakland Athletics to serve as an infield utility player. So what does that mean for fantasy owners? It means that there will be a chance for owners to snag a guy who slashed .258/.310/.425 with 14 home runs, five steals, a 23.2% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate.

Does that mean the fantasy owners should take that opportunity to steal him off the waiver wire? This depends entirely on the depth of your league. Are you in a deep keeper league with 16-20 teams? Then Pinder could be a solid power upside guy at the middle infield position. But owners in standard, 12 or fewer team leagues, owners can pass for now on the former Virginia Tech Hokie as he does not currently have a clear enough path to playing time to maximize his production.

 

Pitchers

A.J. Cole (SP, WAS) - 1% owned

It was announced that Cole would join the Washington Nationals’ pitching staff. Though it is not yet known whether or not he will be used as a starter or reliever, Cole is probably going to used as a spot starter/relief arm. He has put together a decent, albeit unremarkable season at Triple-A to this point with a 4.26 ERA and 3.91 FIP. On the bright side, he has only walked 2.53 batters per nine and struck out 7.87 batters per nine.

Cole is a decent arm and is considered by many to be a solid pitching prospect, but he is not necessarily a guy worth owning in 12 or fewer team leagues. Without high strikeout totals or guaranteed innings from the rotation, Cole has limited upside and will ultimately not be too valuable in the 2016 season. Keeper leagues could consider stashing him for when he might get another opportunity in the rotation, but that is about the extent of his fantasy value.

Tim Adleman (SP, CIN) - 1% owned

While A.J. Cole may be the most exciting name among pitchers promoted, Adleman is easily the guy with the most value. The Reds have promoted him with the intention of using him as a starter for the remainder of the season. On top of that, he had been fairly successful in his previous taste of big league action as he had a 3.72 ERA and 7.45 K/9 in four starts totaling 19.1 innings. His FIP of 5.06 is a bit concerning, but that was largely the result of a 4.19 BB/9 which should not continue as he did own a 1.59 BB/9 prior to his promotion from Triple-A. He is not a great starter and is not a great option in 12 or fewer team leagues, but teams in 14+ team leagues could see some value in reliable innings and a upper-3.00/lower-4.00 ERA.

Gabriel Ynoa (SP, NYM) - 0% owned

Ynoa is the second most hyped prospect among these pitchers, but hype does not equal production and fantasy owners should limit their excitement before rushing to add him. Though he has elite command with some scouts calling it the sharpest of any pitcher in the minors, Ynoa does not have a lot of strikeout upside and will be used strictly as a reliever this season. If you like ~4-5 K/9 and no starts, maybe Ynoa is the guy for you. If that doesn’t sound great, you can leave Ynoa on the waiver wire.

Damien Magnifico (RP, MIL) - 0% owned

Of the three relievers on this list, Magnifico has been the most magnificent when it comes to striking out batters. He had a K/9 of 8.58 at Triple-A thanks in large part to an upper-90s fastball, though his past seasons have seen him strike out fewer batters. But as often is the case with these high-octane, strikeout guys, Magnifico has a lot of control issues. He walked nearly five batters per nine innings and with issues like that, he will not see the ninth inning at all this season. He is an intriguing guy moving forward as he could theoretically be a closer in his future, but it is far too early to guess on that. He is not worth owning in any redraft leagues.

Jason Hursh (RP, ATL) - 0% owned

How exciting are relief pitchers am I right?! I know, they’re not too great, but they are guys promoted who have a chance to occasionally have an impact in deeper leagues or even some shallow leagues as guys who can provide consistently low ERA totals. Unfortunately, Hursh is not that guy. The 31st overall pick in the 2013 draft, Hursh was originally used as a starter in the minors and had to transition to a relief role simply because his stuff did not play well in a starting role. His command is mediocre and for a guy who walks three per nine innings, he does not provide the strikeouts owners would like to see him provide. That ownership rate should stay at 0%.

 

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