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Week 3 Outliers Analysis - We Must Overreact!


Week 3 was a wild one in the NFL with several key players going down with injuries and a few shootouts going down. The quarterback position was fairly stable with Russell Wilson, Josh Allen and Dak Prescott finishing as the top-three producers at the position. Tight end on the other hand was an absolute disaster trying to handicap. Tyler Kroft who is on 0% of rosters in Yahoo leagues finished as the TE-2 while Robert Tonyan, who is rostered in 1% of Yahoo leagues finished as the TE-4. Meanwhile, surefire starters like Tyler Higbee and Mike Gesicki finished as bottom-end TE2's.

The wide receiver position was fairly predictable but there were also some huge curveballs that got thrown at us. The game between the Seahawks and Cowboys was supposed to be a shootout, so we aren't surprised that both Tyler Lockett and Michael Gallup finished as top-10 options, but nobody saw two touchdowns coming from Cedrick Wilson. Justin Jefferson also arrived on the scene with 175 yards and a touchdown for the Vikings in a game where Kirk Cousins needed to throw a lot to keep pace with the Titans.

At running back Mike Davis didn't look great as a runner but he came through in the passing game, hauling in eight-of-nine targets for 45 yards and a touchdown, finishing as an RB1 in Christian McCaffrey's absence. The main surprises on the week were that Miles Sanders didn't run for over 125 yards on the Bengals Defense and Jonathan Taylor only needed to carry the ball 13 times in a game where the Colts Defense scored two touchdowns. Now that Week 3 is behind us, let's take a look at some of these unexpected performances and evaluate whether these guys will continue to produce moving forward.

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Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals

Week 3 Stats: 9 targets, 5 catches, 40 yards, 2 TD

When the Bengals drafted Tee Higgins in the second round of the NFL draft this spring it was assumed he would be A.J. Green's replacement in 2021. After two losses to open the season, the Bengals made John Ross a healthy-scratch and Higgins was out there on 79% of the offensive snaps which was up from 22% in Week 1 and 65% in Week 2. Tee Higgins will have a role from here on out in Cincinnati.

Bottom Line: Higgins came through in a big way in Week 3 against the Eagles but his role may have been expanded because A.J. Green saw so much coverage from Darius Slay. Higgins is worth a roster spot but you should only use him in your lineup if you need him or he has a cornerback matchup that's ideal.

 

Cedrick Wilson, Dallas Cowboys

Week 3 Stats: 7 targets, 5 catches, 107 yards, 2 TD

Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott struggled out of the gate in Week 3 and as a result, the Cowboys decided to get more pass-catchers on the field and air it out. The Seahawks Defense has been shredded by opposing wide receivers so far this season, especially out of the slot, and Cedrick Wilson was a beneficiary of that.

Bottom Line: Don't chase the points. Wilson normally plays about 5% of the Cowboys snaps and played 29% in Week 3 because the Cowboys found themselves down by 15 points and unable to run the ball with their offensive line banged up. Wilson should only be relevant moving forward if the Cowboys have an injury at receiver.

 

Greg Ward, Philadelphia Eagles

Week 3 Stats: 11 targets, 8 catches, 72 yards, 1 TD

The Eagles were devastated by even more injuries in Week 3 against the Bengals, losing both Dallas Goedert and DeSean Jackson. Already without Jalen Reagor, the Eagles had to use Greg Ward and ran him out there on 84% of their offensive snaps.

Bottom Line: Ward's numbers were a little padded by his touchdown just before the end of the first half where he broke free in the Bengals secondary, but the fact remains that the Eagles don't have anybody else at receiver. Greg Ward and possibly John Hightower who played 86% of the Eagles snaps in Week 3, should be on your radar for Week 4.

 

Andy Isabella, Arizona Cardinals

Week 3 Stats: 4 targets, 4 catches, 47 yards, 2 TD

In Christian Kirk's absence Andy Isabella played 40% of the Cardinals snaps and scored twice. Isabella is a big-play threat waiting to happen and has some serious breakout potential as long as Kirk remains out of the lineup. Monitor Kirk's status, because it's possible that Isabella overtakes him if he continues to produce when called upon.

Bottom Line: There's still not a clear path for Isabella to have success in Arizona because DeAndre Hopkins is clearly the No. 1 receiver in that offense and Larry Fitzgerald is still playing 86% of the snaps. While Kirk is out, Isabella can be used based on his matchup in deeper leagues.

 

Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots

Week 3 Stats: 6 carries, 49 yards, 2 TD, 10 targets, 7 catches, 49 yards, 1 TD

The Raiders defense has surrendered a ton of fantasy points to opposing running backs and even allowed Sony Michel to go over 100 yards on the ground in Week 3. The Patriots backfield is a difficult one to navigate, and it may get even cloudier when Damien Harris returns from IR.

Bottom Line: Forecasting Rex Burkhead's usage is a pain, and he should only be used if you're either desperate for a running back or the Patriots suffer injuries at the position. Keep in mind James White has missed the last two weeks as well.

 

Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills

Week 3 Stats: 13 carries, 71 yards, 5 targets, 4 catches, 50 yards

Zack Moss missed Week 3 because of a toe-injury and as a result, Devin Singletary played 89% of the Bills snaps after averaging just under 60% through the first two weeks of the season. Singletary got stuffed on the goal-line against the Rams, so Moss should still have a role once he returns, but while Moss is out, Singletary will see a ton of volume.

Bottom Line: Devin Singletary will be fine but his role will scale back once Zack Moss returns to the Bills lineup. You may want to consider selling-high on Singletary if you receive a decent trade offer for his services.

 

James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 3 Stats: 11 carries, 46 yards, 2 TD, 6 targets, 6 catches, 83 yards

James Robinson has been a pleasant surprise so far this season carrying the load for the Jaguars. While Robinson has been a serviceable starter, his Week 2 stat-line may be a little difficult to replicate. The Jaguars fell behind early against the Dolphins and Gardner Minshew struggled to throw the ball downfield with D.J. Chark out of the lineup. As a result, Robinson saw a lot of check-downs and racked up some fantasy points in the process.

Bottom Line: If you have Robinson on your roster, hold steady and continue to use him as an RB2. If another manager in your league grows impatient with somebody like Joe Mixon or Kenyan Drake and offers you an underperforming stud in exchange for Robinson, you should consider selling high.

 

Jimmy Graham, Chicago Bears

Week 3 Stats: 10 targets, 6 catches, 60 yards, 2 TD

Through the first three weeks of the season, the Falcons Defense has given up 12.4, 21.8 and 24 fantasy points to opposing tight ends in PPR formats. The Falcons score a lot of points which makes opposing offenses throw against them a lot, and as previously mentioned, they generally give up a lot of production to tight ends.

Bottom Line: While Jimmy Graham's 18 targets make him the twelfth-most targeted tight end in the NFL, over half of his targets came against the Falcons in a game where the Bears were playing from behind. Moving forward, Graham should only be used as a matchup-based streamer.

 

Eric Ebron, Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 3 Stats: 7 targets, 5 catches, 52 yards, 1 TD

Eric Ebron has been playing at least 63% of the Steelers offensive snaps through the first three weeks of the season, but he simply hasn't seen consistent targets in the passing game. Diontae Johnson had a tough matchup against Bradley Roby even before he suffered a concussion in Week 3 and as a result, targets were distributed elsewhere.

Bottom Line: Eric Ebron is worth a roster spot but you shouldn't bump him ahead of other more reliable options. Moving forward, it looks like Ebron may be involved in the passing game when the Steelers receivers have difficult cornerback matchups.



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Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 18th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 18th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 17th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 17th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


2021 Early Mock ADP Values & Reaches: WPC+ Videocast

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut prepare for the 2021 fantasy baseball season with a look at early mock draft results from the RotoBaller Expert mock. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller... Read More


Statcast Season Review: 2020 Barrel Leaders (Hitters)

The 2020 MLB season will always be one for the record books, even if everything that took place will have multiple asterisks attached to it. Evaluating Statcast numbers is a nice way to find hot and cold hitters, as well as underachievers and overachievers. Now that the regular season is over, let's reflect on the... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 16th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 16th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 15th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 15th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Daily MLB Injury Roundup for October 14th, 2020

RotoBaller has assembled a list of daily MLB injury updates to help you prepare both your seasonal and daily fantasy baseball (DFS) lineups, every day of the MLB season. Below is our updated list of injured MLB players for October 14th, 2020. Only players on teams that are scheduled to play today will appear below... Read More


Bubba and Bat Flip 53: 2 Early Mocks APD Trends & More - Benched with Bubba (Episode 315)

Bubba (@bdentrek) is joined by Bat Flip Crazy (@BatFlipCrazy) to take a deeper look at the 2 Early Mocks ADP. They dig into trends, some interesting risers/fallers, and much more. They also go over some listener questions at the end to keep the Fantasy Baseball information coming even in the offseason. Be sure to subscribe... Read More