The Cut List - Time To Let Go? Week 4

We're cooking with gas now and officially entering Week 4. Keep tinkering with your roster, especially with those last 1–2 bench spots. Unless your roster is a juggernaut, those last two spots should be revolving doors until you hit on one of those lottery tickets.

It's important not to read too much into the fantasy production of any players – good or bad – the first few weeks of the season, but by Week 4 fantasy managers can start to feel fairly confident in the kind of workload and volume they're receiving. So while someone like Robert Woods has been a disappointment thus far, his target volume has been "acceptable" for the most part. Unfortunately, the production just hasn't followed. Woods is one of those cases where fantasy managers need to look past his points per game average. Robby Anderson, however, is someone who has struggled because of a lack of volume. We'll talk more about him below, but that's a much bigger problem that fantasy managers need to be aware of.

The other aspect of this is, fantasy managers need to understand their league. Several players below are guys that can safely be dropped in 12-team formats. Know your league mates and understand how they value players. If you're thinking about dropping a bigger name because they haven't been productive, make sure you try moving him first. You might be able to trade him for someone better than what you could acquire on the waiver wire. The other aspect to any of these names – they are not must drops. We don't want to make any moves just for the sake of making moves. Any move you make should be done to improve your fantasy football team. If the move does not do so, don't do it. So while you'll find Trevor Lawrence below, if the waiver wire doesn't have a better player available, don't do it. These are just some players you can drop if you need to make a move.

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

53.7% rostered

Fantasy managers had high hopes for Trevor Lawrence this season and there are a lot of reasons for that. With Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault Jr. and D.J. Chark, Lawrence has a lot of weapons to target. He's an athletic quarterback who, while not as good a runner as Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray, can still earn points with his legs. The Jaguars defense is sub-par at best and should consistently put the team in a position where they're chasing points and throwing the ball. All of that has been mostly true so far, but it just hasn't mattered:

Trevor Lawrence leads the league in bad throws (27) & bad throw percentage (23.3%, nobody with more than 50 attempts is over 16.3%). He's been pressured on only 15.0% of dropbacks, which is 7th least with QB's more than 50 attempts. Can't blame his OL. He's just been flat out bad

— Scott Connor (@CharlesChillFFB) September 27, 2021

Lawrence has seven interceptions and another two lost fumbles. He hasn't been able to eliminate the turnovers and there has been little upside to compensate for it. Through three weeks, he has had two games with under 10 points. Fantasy managers need to move on, especially with passers like Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr still out there on waiver wires with lower rostership numbers.

Running Backs

Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

59.3% rostered

Ronald Jones has 52 yards rushing through three weeks. He has only received 15 carries, good for five per game. He's on pace for 295 scoreless yards.

Buccaneers final HB snap count #TBvsLAR

Giovani Bernard 33
Leonard Fournette 26
Ronald Jones 12

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 27, 2021

Bruce Arians isn't just refusing to give Jones the ball -- he's not even letting him onto the field. With what fantasy managers have seen through three weeks, Jones cannot even be trusted as a bye-week or injury replacement player right now.

Phillip Lindsay, Houston Texans

36.0% rostered

Lindsay has 36 points on the season in half-PPR formats, which is good for a six point-per-game average. It doesn't sound terrible, but there's no real upside there. He's the backup for Mark Ingram's role, and the backup to David Johnson's role -- and neither Ingram nor Johnson hold any meaningful fantasy value. Rostering anyone from this backfield is mostly a waste of time, but Lindsay leads the way. A third of Lindsay's points have come from two touchdowns that fantasy managers shouldn't get in the habit of chasing.

Texans final HB snap count #CARvsHOU

David Johnson 21
Mark Ingram II 19
Phillip Lindsay 9
Rex Burkhead 8

Out of 55 plays

— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) September 24, 2021

With limited playing time and just seven touches per game, Lindsay holds little to no value. To make matters worse, his touches are the least valuable kind of touches. David Johnson is the primary third-down and pass-catching back, and Ingram is the goal-line back. Fantasy managers can safely cut ties here.

Wide Receivers

Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts

23.1% rostered

Michael Pittman has officially claimed the top spot as the alpha receiver in Indianapolis. Over the last two weeks, Pittman has been hovering around a 35% target share. And Pittman's dominance of the targets has minimized just how much work is available for Campbell to gobble up. With Wentz being so comfortable dumping the ball off to Nyheim Hines, and Zach Pascal in the slot, there is not enough work left for Campbell to be productive.

While T.Y. Hilton isn't expected back for a few more weeks, once he does make his return Campbell will move even further down the target hierarchy. Fantasy managers should very easily be able to find someone on the waiver wire with more upside than Campbell. Cut your losses.

Tight Ends

Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots

74.9% rostered

While fantasy managers are not disappointed with his 16 targets through the first three weeks, his 74 scoreless receiving yards leave much to be desired. With a 4.3 half-PPR point-per-game average, fantasy managers cannot safely be putting Smith into their starting lineups. The Patriots are already a low-volume passing attack, and Mac Jones hasn't really found his favorite target on a consistent basis. Right now, he's spreading the ball around, which has significantly lowered most of the pass-catchers' values in New England.

#Patriots Week 3 TE route rates:

Hunter Henry - 70%
Jonnu Smith - 26%

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 27, 2021

To make matters worse, some of Hunter Henry's peripherals look more promising than Smith's the last two weeks. Not only is Henry running more routes, but Henry's routes have been developing further down the field. While Smith is out-targeting Henry, Smith's shallow average-depth-of-target significantly limits his upside. If you're looking for a tight end streamer, surely you can do better than Smith right now.

On The Hot Seat

Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers

69.4% rostered

For most of last week Elijah Mitchell was listed as doubtful for the Week 3 game against the Packers, but still managed to get in a limited practice to end the week. It sounds like Mitchell has a good chance to return in Week 4. But that's not the biggest problem for Sermon -- even if he was Mitchell's 1B or complimentary back, he'd likely hold fantasy value. The bigger problem is just how little Kyle Shanahan seemed to trust Sermon in their loss to the Packers:

final snap shares and touches from #SNF

Kyle Juszczyk - 69%, 9

Trey Sermon - 59%, 12#GBvsSF

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 27, 2021

Shanahan routinely gave carries to Kyle Juszczyk, and even used Deebo Samuel and George Kittle in the running game. When Sermon did get his touches, he often did little with them averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. When you combine Sermon's lack of efficiency, and the distrust that Shanahan seems to have in Sermon, fantasy managers should be concerned with how much value he can hold.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

90.3% rostered

Fantasy managers are likely in panic mode as it relates to Anderson. It has been a brutal start to the season. He's only generated 11 targets in three games, and he's turned those 11 targets into a measly five catches for 103 receiving yards. Fantasy managers were hopeful that after Anderson re-signed with the Panthers for another two years that the organization did that with a plan in place for him. But it's getting harder and harder to hold that premise.

Panthers WR target shares after 3 weeks #CARvsHOU

D.J. Moore - 30%
Terrace Marshall - 13%
Robby Anderson - 10%

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 24, 2021

Thus far, Anderson has been fourth on the target hierarchy in Carolina behind DJ Moore, Terrace Marshall Jr. and Christian McCaffrey. The injury to CMC will certainly open up some targets, and could help Anderson to be a bit more productive moving forward -- but CMC is not expected to land on IR, so any boost he sees is unlikely to be a long-term fix. Unless Anderson starts putting up more points, fantasy managers might not have a choice but to move on from him sooner than later.

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets

14.9% rostered

Fantasy managers holding onto hope that Crowder might be able to replicate his 2020 season -- where he averaged 11.9 points per game in half-PPR formats -- are likely holding onto a lost hope. There was some optimism that the new coaching staff and rookie Zach Wilson could keep Crowder's fantasy relevance afloat, but it's been a rough start to the season.

Crowder was on the COVID-19 list in Week 1 and has been inactive the past two weeks. With the Jets offensive struggles, and Wilson playing very much like a rookie, Crowder is on the verge of being safely dropped without even playing a snap. Wilson has struggled to support one fantasy-relevant receiver, so supporting two or three seems far-fetched at the moment, since second-round pick Elijah Moore is also in the fold.

Don't Give Up Yet...

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears

Fantasy managers are likely getting worried with Mooney's start. He was a late round pick a lot of people liked after a promising rookie season. Especially when you consider the circumstances of the multiple quarterback changes he suffered through in 2020. The hope was Mooney could ascend to being a reliable target for Andy Dalton or Justin Fields and play his way into WR4 or maybe, even WR3 range. That hasn't happened. He's currently WR76 in half-PPR scoring.

Perspective and patience is needed here, however. He has received 19 targets through three weeks. He had seven and eight in the first two weeks of the season before Fields' disastrous first start in Week 3. The usage in those first two weeks were very promising and certainly someone worth holding onto. The concern is surrounding the quarterback play. Andy Dalton wasn't able to keep him afloat and Justin Fields looked unprepared for the spotlight. If the quarterback play doesn't improve, Mooney's fantasy prospects go down the drain, but he's worth hanging onto for a few more weeks to see how Nagy plays out his quarterback carousel.

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