RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! As we head into Week 5 of the NFL season, we are approaching the time where getting off to a slow start can cross the line and get into "I may be digging too deep of a hole to climb out of " territory. It's more critical than ever to make the right lineup decisions and start the right players to put out your optimal lineups.
With that being said, it's just as important to sit the proper players who may end up having rough days, and hurt your chances of winning your Week 5 matchups. Listed below will be some players who could be in for a disappointing performance relative to their overall expectations.
No matter how bad of a matchup some of these players may have, fantasy managers likely aren't in a position to leave them on their bench. Having said that, there are a couple of guys who are by no means a must-start in Week 5.
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QB - Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Mayfield could be in for another rough outing for fantasy managers against the Los Angeles Chargers pass defense that has given up the fifth-fewest passing yards through the first four weeks of the season. Considering how run-heavy the Cleveland offense is, we will likely be seeing a heavy dose of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to take advantage of the Chargers’ fourth-worst run defense that is allowing 5.3 yards per carry.
Mayfield has struggled to find consistency early on as he has thrown just two touchdown passes through the first four games of the season, and has once again struggled to find chemistry with his WR1 Odell Beckham Jr. . The Chargers have allowed just 6.6 yards per pass attempt, which is not exactly ideal for a quarterback who is likely to be short of volume in this one. This, coupled with the fact they have given up just six passing touchdowns in four games makes the Cleveland quarterback an easy fade in one-QB fantasy leagues. In two-QB and super-flex leagues, he can be valued as a low-end QB2 in this game.
Baker Mayfield MISSES a wide-open Odell Beckham Jr.? #Browns
— TWSN (@TWSN___) October 3, 2021
RB - Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team
Gibson is in for a rough matchup against the New Orleans Saints defense that has allowed just 3.1 yards per carry and a total of 264 rushing yards through the first four weeks of the season. The 23-year-old has averaged 63.3 rushing yards per game (4.3 ypc) and has found the end zone just once on the ground, so it is hard to believe he has an effective day against one of the best run defenses in the league. However, Saquon Barkley showed that the Saints' defense isn't bulletproof as he finished with 126 scrimmage yards and two total touchdowns in Week 4.
What doesn't bode well for Gibson in this game is that a lot of Barkley’s production came from the passing game, which is something that the sophomore hasn't seen a significant role in just yet. He has caught just eight passes in four games for a total of 107 receiving yards, 73 of which came on one play in Week 3 against the Buffalo Bills. J.D. McKissic still has a significant role as a receiver out of the backfield, so for that reason, fantasy managers should lower their expectations for Gibson in Week 5. There likely won’t be many better options in standard-sized leagues, so he can be valued as a high-to-mid range RB2 as opposed to the RB1 he was drafted as.
RB - Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Sanders has started off his third season in a less than inspiring fashion for fantasy managers. He has been short of volume throughout the first four games, as he has amassed just 37 carries in total, 15 of which came in one game. With just nine rushing attempts in his past two games, it is hard to trust Sanders in a matchup with the Carolina Panthers who have given up the 10th-fewest rushing yards so far. He has been fairly efficient when called upon as he has averaged 4.6 yards per carry, but volume is always more appealing when it comes to fantasy football.
Surprisingly, he is not even the leading rusher on his team. Jalen Hurts leads the way with 226 rushing yards to Sanders’ 169 on 34 carries. The 24-year-old has also seen a limited role in the passing game due to the emergence of rookie Kenneth Gainwell. There is no question about the talent of Sanders, that is undeniable. However, he has not been put in a position to produce consistent fantasy numbers, which is more than good reason to leave him on benches in Week 5. When you look at the fact that he almost splits carries with his quarterback, and is not the No.1 receiving option out of the backfield, he is an easy fade against one of the better defenses in the league. Sanders was drafted in the lower-end RB2 to RB3 range, so fantasy managers can likely afford to seek out better options this week.
#Eagles RB usage through 4 weeks
- Miles Sanders: 65% snaps, 9.3 carries per game, 3.5 targets per game, 11.7 fantasy PPG
- Kenny Gainwell: 35% snaps, 4.8 carries per game, 4.5 targets per game, 10.1 fantasy PPG
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 4, 2021
RB - Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos
Gordon has been in a timeshare with Javonte Williams to start the season, and for the first time in Week 4 was out-snapped by the rookie. Although it was an almost even split, (51% to 49%) the lighter workload for the veteran was likely due to the rib and leg injuries he was nursing leading up to the game. The matchup in Week 5 with the Pittsburgh Steelers does no favors for Gordon, as they have given up the 11th-fewest rushing yards and the seventh-fewest yards per carry, and just one rushing touchdown.
Gordon’s efficiency numbers have been inflated by a 70-yard touchdown run in Week 1, so if you remove that one play he is averaging 3.56 yards per carry on 50 attempts. It is unlikely he will see enough volume to make up for the inefficiency and bad matchup, so it is probably best for fantasy managers to keep the 28-year-old on the bench for this game. Williams has been emerging in the backfield, and there is always the chance that the rookie vultures some goal-line work from Gordon. A touchdown could salvage his day, but that is hard to predict when you get an almost 50-50 split backfield.
WR - D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
Moore has started off the season in spectacular fashion as he has posted back-to-back 100 yard games against the Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys. He is likely going to be seeing a lot of Darius Slay on Sunday, which has been one of the least friendly matchups for opposing wide receivers. Slay has given up just seven catches for 60 yards in four games this year, and has given up 100 yards to an opposing receiver in just two matchups his entire career.
In Week 1, Calvin Ridley was held to just five catches for 51 yards with Slay playing most of the game covering the Atlanta Falcons’ No. 1 wideout. In Week 3, the Eagles were blown out by the Dallas Cowboys but Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb were almost completely taken out of the game. Cooper caught just three passes for 26 yards with Lamb catching three passes for 66 yards. When you think of nightmare matchups for wide receivers in fantasy, names like Jalen Ramsey, Jaire Alexander, and Stephon Gilmore come to mind. Slay is approaching this territory as it is rare to see a receiver get the better of the nine-year veteran. Moore is a must-start option for fantasy managers, but temper your expectations a bit for this matchup.
Darius Slay was targeted 4 times by the #Chiefs.
Allowed just 2 catches for 19 yards (per @PFF)
I'm not defending Slay's tweet, just posting the numbers. #Eagles #FlyEaglesFly
— Jeff Kerr (@JeffKerrCBS) October 4, 2021
WR - Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys
Cooper has seen his play be pretty inconsistent this season, as he has been targeted no more than five times in three straight weeks. He exploded for 13 catches for 139 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 but has been fairly quiet ever since. In Week 5, his matchup doesn't get any easier as he will likely be seeing a lot of James Bradberry, who has struggled at times this season but rebounded in Week 4 with an interception against the Saints. The Giants have given up the 10-fewest yards per reception, and in a game where the Cowboys could heavily lean on Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, this does no favors for the outlook of Cooper.
In two meetings with the Giants last season, albeit without Dak Prescott, Cooper was held to just two receptions for 23 yards and then six receptions for 41 yards, with no touchdowns. The last three weeks of action are likely a better representation of the Dallas offense, which is leaning on the run and spreading the ball around. With a much-improved defense from last year, it is unlikely they will be in a ton of shootouts and have to throw the ball 50+ times like in Week 1. Lamb, Dalton Schultz, and even Cedrick Wilson will have a role in the offense, likely limiting the number of targets Cooper will see on a weekly basis.
TE - Maxx Williams, Arizona Cardinals
Williams has been impressive to start the season, most recently catching five passes for 66 yards and a touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4. Although there are obviously better options at the position, some fantasy managers may look at last week and Week 2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars as a reason to start Williams against the San Francisco 49ers. In what is a high-volume passing attack in Arizona, it is hard to predict who will be second and third in line for targets on any given week. Rondale Moore, A.J. Green, Christian Kirk, and Williams have all had their big games, so at this point, it is just a dart throw on who may find the end zone on a weekly basis.
It is worth noting that the two games DeAndre Hopkins had a limited role were the same weeks that Williams had his two best games. Hopkins was targeted just four times in Week 2 when Williams finished with seven receptions for 94 yards and was essentially taken out of the game plan in Week 5 when he was matched up with Jalen Ramsey. Hopkins will likely have a large role in this one to take advantage of the weak 49ers cornerbacks, as Davante Adams did in Week 3 with 13 catches for 132 yards and a score. This coupled with the fact that the San Francisco defense has allowed just 19 total fantasy points to tight ends in four games, Williams is an easy fade in Week 5.
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