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What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find part one of our Week 7 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the first half of the Week 7 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Campus (@pfunk00).
Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
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Week 6 Matchup Analysis Recap
Greatest Hits: Kenny Britt (WR, LA), Lamar Miller (RB, HOU), Michael Crabtree (WR, OAK)
Kenny Britt has been the most consistent Rams receiver all season, and finally was able to break completely through last week. He hauled in 7-of-8 targets for 136 yards and two scores. Britt is a great player to add in all leagues as a bye week fill in. Likewise, Lamar Miller finally found the end zone against an extremely soft Colts defense. We can only hope that level of production continues for Miller, who has an easier upcoming schedule. I predicted Michael Crabtree to struggle against the Chiefs secondary, as he was limited to only two catches for 10 yards. Those performances will be few and far between for Crabtree.
Greatest Misses: Matt Ryan (QB, ATL), Tevin Coleman (RB, ATL), Jeremy Maclin (WR, KC)
I thought for sure that Ryan would struggle with the Seahawks secondary, but that matchup with the Broncos the week prior must have really got him ready. He threw for over 300 yards with three scores. Ryan will be matchup proof the rest of the season. Coleman was extremely disappointing against the stout Seattle defense, rushing five times for 10 yards. I thought his big contribution would come from the passing game, but he only managed to catch one pass for seven yards. Maclin put up another disappointing performance last week with only three catches for 49 yards, mainly due to the amount of rainfall that came down during game day. He has another tantalizing opponent this week in the Saints.
Giants @ Rams (London) - Sunday 10/23 @ 9:30 AM EST
Matchups We Love
O’Dell Beckham Jr. (WR, NYG)
OBJ finally had the breakout game owners have been waiting for him to have since draft day. Last week, he broke off several long receptions en route to an eight catch, 222 yard two TD performance against a difficult Ravens defense. He seemed less frustrated on the field, but any receiver that puts up a 200 spot on their opponent is going to be having a great time. This week he faces the Rams at a neutral location in London. The Rams have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. Although they have been pretty good against opposing WR1, you’re playing Beckham no matter what. His talent level is off the charts.
Kenny Britt (WR, LA)
As mentioned above, Britt has been the Los Angeles' best receiver this season and is coming off of his best game as a Ram. Britt has seen his targets rise each of the past three weeks (from four, to six, to eight last week), and last week was only the second time this season he was targeted more than WR Tavon Austin. With a performance like last week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Britt as the most heavily targeted WR in the offense once again. There is no way Britt matches his performance from last week, but against a beatable Giants secondary he will be in line for another solid game.
Todd Gurley (RB, LA)
Todd Gurley rushed for his highest YPC of the year last week, rushing 14 times for 58 yards (4.1 YPC). He also added four receptions for 39 yards, but unfortunately for fantasy owners did not cash in on a TD. Gurley has 12 receptions over the past three weeks as the Rams try to get him more involved in the passing game. Last week was the lowest amount of touches he received in a game, mainly because Keenum had by far his best game of the season passing for three scores. That won’t happen every week; look for Gurley to get back in the end zone this week.
Matchups We Hate
Rashad Jennings (RB, NYG)
Playing in his first game in nearly a month, Rashad Jennings faced about as tough a matchup as you could last week against the Ravens. He ran nine times for only 15 yards, adding four receptions for 20 yards. This week he faces the Rams, who are not quite as stingy as the Ravens but are still in the top half of the league at stopping the run. Last week they were able to limit the Lions rushing attack to 83 yards on 26 rushes (3.19 YPC). I don’t see Jennings finding much success this week, or any of the Giants RBs for that matter against the Rams front seven.
Notable Players
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
The Rams have not been good this season against opposing teams WR2's. Last week they were torched by Golden Tate and Anquan Boldin, and the week before that Marquise Goodwin and Justin Hunter each notched a TD. With Beckham taking most of the coverage, Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz should have plenty of room to operate. Neither are in the ‘love’ category, because I am not sure which of the two will feast. Also, the combo has not played so well over the past three weeks, averaging about three receptions for under 30 yards per game.
Browns @ Bengals - Sunday 10/23 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Duke Johnson Jr. (RB, CLE)
While Duke Johnson has been unable to make a big dent in the carries of Isaiah Crowell, he has been an important member of the passing attack. He is currently tied for fourth in the league among receptions by a RB with 24, averaging four catches per game this season. The Bengals have been susceptible to pass-catching RBs this season. Last week James White was able to catch eight passes and score two TDs. The Browns will likely need to throw a bunch this week to keep up with the Bengals passing attack, so keep an eye out for Johnson to have another solid receiving game this week.
Gary Barnidge (TE, CLE)
With top WR Terrelle Pryor not looking like he will play this week, Gary Barnidge will be the top receiving option for Cody Kessler. After a slow start to the season, Barnidge has really turned things around. Over the past four weeks, he is averaging five catches for 65 yards per game. The only thing he has been missing are the TDs; he still has a goose egg in that category. He has a great chance to break through this week against a Bengals defense that has allowed the fifth most points to the TE position this season.
Andy Dalton (QB, CIN)
Andy Dalton has struggled a bit this season after losing Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu to free agency during the offseason. However, this week's matchup is just too good to pass up. The Cleveland Browns have allowed the second most points to fantasy QBs this season, allowing four straight three-TD performances to opposing QBs. Dalton only has four TDs over his past four games, so this matchup could not have come at a better time for the veteran. Expect Dalton to get back on track this week in a big way.
A.J. Green (WR, CIN)
The leading Bengals receiver and one of the top players in the league will continue his dominance this week against the Browns. Green has been an absolute monster this season, on pace to catch 112 passes for over 1,600 yards as the focal point of the Bengals offense. The Browns have actually been OK at defending opposing WRs, and Green would have a much tougher day facing a healthy Joe Haden. However, it is looking less and less likely that Haden will be able to play this Sunday, meaning the door for Green to have a huge game is completely off its hinges. It’s no question whether you’re playing him or not, rather how many points he will rack up this week.
Matchups We Hate
Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE)
After a very hot start to the season, Isaiah Crowell has had a tough past two weeks. Up against the Patriots and Titans, Crowell averaged 11 rushes for 19 yards. While the Bengals aren’t quite as stingy as those teams at stopping the run, they have been decent enough outside of Week 3 when Ezekiel Elliott ran all over them. The loss of offensive lineman Joel Bitonio to injury has really hurt Cleveland's running game. In a contest where the Browns will need to pass to keep up, I don’t see Crowell’s streak of bad games being snapped.
Notable Players
Tyer Eifert (TE, CIN)
If he plays, this will be Tyler Eifert’s first game of the 2016 season after working to recover from offseason ankle surgery. This matchup could not be better for a TE of his caliber; the Browns have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing TEs so far this season. The biggest part of the Bengals game that has been missing is a big bodied, imposing threat in the red zone that Dalton can turn to outside of Green. Eifert will fill that role to a T upon his return. He will be a risky play his first week back, but once he is settled he will be a top notch TE play moving forward.
Redskins @ Lions - Sunday 10/23 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Kirk Cousins (QB, WSH)
Kirk Cousins has had his ups and downs this season, but against soft passing defenses he has fared very well. In Week 4 against Cleveland (allowing the second most fantasy points to the QB position), Cousins threw for three of his nine total TDs. This week he faces the Lions, who have allowed the most points to the QB position this season. They are fresh off of allowing Case Keenum to have his best day of the year, throwing for 321 yards and three scores. Even though he may be without some of his better weapons this Sunday, expect Cousins to find plenty of passing lanes.
Pierre Garcon (WR, WSH)
Garcon makes for a great play this week, especially if Jordan Reed can’t suit up (DeSean Jackson looking like he will be good to go). Garcon was an afterthought in this offense after the drafting of WR Josh Doctson, but Garcon has earned himself a prominent role in this offense. He has seen his targets rise each of the past three weeks, topping out at 11 last week. He is seeing a healthy 7.2 targets per game on average this season, and is coming off of his best receiving day, catching six passes for 77 yards. While Jamison Crowder is still dominating red zone looks, Garcon has an excellent shot at a solid fantasy day in a game where Washington will need to pass to keep up with the Lions offense.
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, DET)
Do not sleep on Marvin Jones this week. Though the Redskins have been amongst the top-10 teams in the league in limiting opposing WRs, I still like Jones to have a good week. Against opposing WRs as a whole they have been good, but opposing WR1s have been able to find some success. Last week they limited Jordan Matthews to three catches for 75 receiving yards; their best fantasy day against a WR1 (in a PPR league). O’Dell Beckham, Dez Bryant, and Terrelle Pryor Sr. all had big days against this defense. With Theo Riddick looking unlikely to play again, there will be some targets to go around for Jones this week.
Matchups We Hate
Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)
Stafford has been one of the top QBs in the league so far this season. He has thrown for 1,648 yards with 14 TDs to only four INTs. He is fresh off one of his best performances of the season, a four TD game against the Rams at home. This week he faces a Redskins team that have allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. Outside of Week 1, they have not allowed a QB to throw for multiple TD passes this season. With Stafford missing some weapons on offense, I don’t see him having the same success as normal.
Notable Players
Golden Tate (WR, DET)
Golden Tate finally put up some numbers last week against the Rams. He caught eight passes for 165 yards and a TD, in what was far and away his best game of the season. The 10 targets he received last week were a season high. This was partly due to RB Theo Riddick being out of the game, along with rookie RB Dwayne Washington. This week Riddick will likely be out again, but Washington will make his return. Tate will have plenty of chances to catch and run with those short passes once again this week. The only questions will be how many chances will he get, and will he be able to break one or two loose like he did last week? He is still a risky option, but could certainly pay off.
Raiders @ Jaguars - Sunday 10/23 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Amari Cooper (WR, OAK)
Amari Cooper has made excellent strides in his second NFL season. Currently, he is riding a two game streak of over 125 receiving yards, and has seen 10 targets per game on average this season. Last week he was able to catch 10-of-13 targets for 129 yards against a tough Chiefs defense. This week he gets much easier competition against the Jaguars secondary. Both teams have mediocre defenses, meaning this one could turn into a shootout early. The Jaguars have given up the ninth most fantasy points to the WR position this season, and have been especially susceptible to opposing teams WR1s. Put Cooper in your lineup and enjoy the Sunday production.
Michael Crabtree (WR, OAK)
Michael Crabtree may be the best WR2 in the league right now. He is coming off of his worst game as a Raider, catching only two passes for 10 yards last week against a Chiefs defense that has been dominant against WR2s this season. The Jaguars will not cause him the same type of issues. Last week Cameron Meredith was able to dominate Jacksonville's secondary, catching 11 passes for 113 yards. Expect a big bounce-back game this week.
Allen Robinson (WR, JAX)
The top WR on the Jaguars has been a bit disappointing from a fantasy perspective this season, but this is a week where you’ll be happy to have him. Oakland has one of the worst secondary’s in the league, allowing the fourth most fantasy points to the WR position this season. They did a good job limiting Jeremy Maclin last week mainly due to the intense rainfall that day, but against the Chargers the week before they allowed two 100-yard receivers. Robinson still has elite-level talent even if the numbers don’t fully show it. In a game where both teams will be throwing, look for Robinson to have his best game of 2016.
Chris Ivory (RB, JAX)
Chris Ivory has been slowly working his way back from injury, and last week he showed some signs of improvement. He rushed for 32 yards on 11 carries (2.9 YPC), which doesn’t seem all that impressive, but he got a goal line carry which he punched in for a TD. He also caught two passes in the game. Most importantly, last week he out-touched T.J. Yeldon 13-to-7. While the running game leaves much to be desired, this could be the matchup they turn it around; Oakland gives up the fourth most points to the RB position. If Ivory can continue to touch the ball more than Yeldon, while also getting the all-important goal line carries, this could be the best of Ivory we have seen all season.
Matchups We Hate
T.J. Yeldon (RB, JAX)
T.J. Yeldon has had plenty of chances this season to take the RB job and run with it. Unfortunately for fantasy owners and the Jacksonville Jaguars, he has looked very underwhelming. In five games he has rushed for 176 yards with only one TD. He is averaging only 3.3 YPC this season. He does have 19 catches and will still be useful if the Jaguars are getting blown out, but Ivory is also capable of catching passes. If he continues to cede touches to Ivory, he will be unplayable in all formats.
Notable Players
Latavius Murray (RB, OAK)
Latavius Murray is set to make his return to the Raiders this week after missing his past two contests with turf toe. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard filled in in his absence, and did fairly well. Last week the duo ran 14 times for 56 yards (4.0 YPC) while catching a pair of passes. Surprisingly, Jacksonville has allowed the 10th fewest fantasy points to the RB position this season. Even if this were a soft run defense, predicting who will have the best day between Murray, Washington, and Richard will drive you mad. This is one of the most frustrating backfields in the league to manage from a fantasy perspective. I would avoid them all this week if you're able to.
Julius Thomas (TE, JAX)
The Jaguars would like to get their TE more involved in the offense this week, according to OC Greg Olson. He only recorded two catches for 28 yards last week, and has failed to hit the 30 yard mark in each of the past two weeks. Unfortunately for the offense, he was added to the injury report after sustaining an ankle injury, and is questionable to play this week. If he does, the porous Raiders defense offers him a great chance to rebound on Sunday.
Saints @ Chiefs - Sunday 10/23 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Jeremy Maclin (WR, KC)
Jeremy Maclin has been a huge disappointment for fantasy owners this season. Drafted as a safe, reliable WR2, he has been performing like a WR3 so far despite leading the team in targets. Faced with a favorable matchup last week against the Raiders, he only caught 3-of-3 targets for 49 yards. It is becoming harder and harder to trust Maclin each week, but I believe this will be the week Maclin has a solid game. Before last week he was averaging about nine targets per game. The reason he was so under-utilized was because it was raining and the Chiefs were running the ball well. This week they draw the Saints, who have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to WRs this season. Look for Maclin to have a solid game this weekend, and if he doesn’t, it may be time to sell Maclin to anyone who has some hope left.
Spencer Ware (RB, KC)
Even with the return of top RB Jamaal Charles, it was Spencer Ware who dominated last Sunday. Ware rushed 24 times for 131 yards (5.5 YPC) and a TD, while also catching two passes for 32 yards. With Charles healthy you can expect to see that number of carries go down, but Ware should have a prominent role in this offense the rest of the season because he has been that good this year. He is averaging 5.3 YPC and nearly 16 carries per game. The Saints feature one of the most burnable defenses in the league, so if Ware can continue getting the touches he has been he will dominate this game.
Brandin Cooks (WR, NO)
Brandin Cooks had a nice bounce-back performance last week, catching seven passes for 173 yards and a TD. This was an amazing turnaround for Cooks, who averaged four receptions for 37 yards the previous three weeks. With the number of weapons QB Drew Brees has at his disposal, Cooks is bound to have some games where he is heavily out-produced by other targets on the offense. However, that will not happen too often because Cooks leads the team in targets with 41. As long as Brees is airing it out, Cooks will always have a chance for a huge game like last week. The Chiefs were jurt burned badly by Amari Cooper last week, so this defense is susceptible to production from opposing WR1s.
Matchups We Hate
Drew Brees (QB, NO)
Drew Brees is just not quite the same QB on the road that he is at home. Last season, Brees had a 23:9 TD:INT ratio at home, compared to 9:6 on the road. For his career he has a 261:101 ratio at home and 181:108 on the road in a nearly identical set of games (112 at home, 111 on the road). He is traveling to Kansas City this week, to a stadium that is notoriously one of the most difficult places to play in due to crowd noise. Brees will have his moments in this one because of how potent the Saints offense is, but a few picks is not out of the question against a tough defense. You’re likely starting Brees if you own him, but I would go with a different option if a better matchup is out there.
Notable Players
Jamaal Charles (RB, KC)
Jamaal Charles has slowly worked his way back to the Chiefs this season. In his first bit of action in 2016 he received only two touches and gained seven yards. After a bye week, Charles came back in a bigger role with 11 touches, accumulating 47 yards and a rushing TD. He is still being heavily out-touched by Ware, but Charles is a Hall-of-Fame talent that can do a ton with a limited amount of touches. If Charles sees his touches increase again this week he could be in line for a huge game.
Mark Ingram (RB, NO)
Mark Ingram has seen a decreased number of touches so far in 2016, mainly due to the Saints wanting to keep him healthy for the entire season. After a bit of a slow start, he has done well over the past three weeks contributing on the ground and in the receiving game. With Brees likely to struggle a bit on Sunday given his past performances, they could lean on Ingram a bit more than usual. The Chiefs have allowed 110 rushing yards per game on average, but have done a good job limiting RBs to 28 receiving yards per game. Ingram should be started in all leagues this week. It is only a matter of him receiving enough touches to be effective.
Vikings @ Eagles - Sunday 10/23 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Stefon Diggs (WR, MIN)
While the Philadelphia Eagles don’t necessarily provide the best matchup on paper for Stefon Diggs, someone in this matchup between two stud defenses is going to surprise and have a good week. My bet is on Diggs to break through. Fresh off of an injury and a bye week, Diggs should be back to full strength, Before his injury, Diggs was having a nice start to his season as Sam Bradford’s favorite target. He averaged 8.5 targets per game during the first four weeks. The Eagles have only allowed one receiver to top 100 yards this season (Antonio Brown, Week 3), but other than that have been stingy. A huge game may not be in store for Diggs, but if you own him I would start him while expecting an above average performance in his first game back.
Matchups We Hate
Jerick McKinnon (RB, MIN)
Jerick McKinnon was wildly ineffective Week 4 for the Vikings. He rushed 20 times which is great, but was only able to gain 36 yards (1.8 YPC). Matt Asiata was then brought in, and was able to rush 14 times for 55 yards, adding a TD. Asiata will continue eating into McKinnon’s TD carries, but McKinnon will dominate the touches most weeks. The Eagles this week are another tough opponent for McKinnon unfortunately. They allow only 90 yards rushing from opposing RBs this season. If McKinnon and Asiata split 60-to-40 with their touches, another lackluster performance is ahead for McKinnon. Lacking TD potential with Asiata in town greatly hurts his value.
Jordan Matthews (WR, PHI)
No WR has had success this year against the Vikings stout defense. In the previous two weeks before the bye, they limited DeAndre Hopkins and O’Dell Beckham to a combined eight receptions for 79 yards. A TD saved Hopkins’ fantasy day, but that was only the second TD they have given up to a WR this season. Matthews is guaranteed to have a tough time this week. Barring a TD, it will be a rough fantasy week for the Eagles top WR.
Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI)
Much like the Matthews above, this Mathews will not have it easy against the top defensive unit in the league. The Vikings have allowed a league-low 62 yards rushing per game, and have only allowed one rushing TD on the season. Last week Mathews only received nine rushing attempts, while Darren Sproles, Kenjon Barner, and Wendell Smallwood all chipped in with a combined 10 carries. The way the Eagles spread the ball around in the backfield, mixed with an extremely tough defense, makes this a tough week to trust any Eagles RB.
Notable Players
Zach Ertz (TE, PHI)
The one position the Vikings have been only OK covering this season is the TE position. While they have not allowed a TD to the position yet, opposing TEs have averaged four receptions for 48 yards per game against them. With the Vikings more than capable of shutting down the run and top receivers, it gives the TE a chance to shine. Zach Ertz returned from injury two weeks ago and hasn’t done much, catching four passes for 59 yards combined in those weeks. However, Ertz has flashed major receiving talent in his career, and if receivers are having a tough time getting open QB Carson Wentz will undoubtedly look Ertz’s way. If you have no other options at TE, Ertz is not a bad play this week.
Ravens @ Jets - Sunday 10/23 @ 1:00 PM EST
Matchups We Love
Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ)
With Ryan Fitzpatrick now out, Geno Smith enters the fold as the Jets new starting QB (at least for this week). While it seems like a death sentence for Marshall’s fantasy impact, this may not actually be a bad thing. First off, you can’t perform much worse than Fitz was over the past few weeks. Second, the last time Smith started he looked the way of Marshall often. Last season when Smith played the majority of the game against Oakland, Marshall caught nine of 18(!) targets for 108 yards. Not all the passes were on point, but if you throw Marshall’s way enough he’s bound to come up with a good amount of catches. I don’t expect this to be a good game for anyone on the Jets side of the ball outside of Marshall. He can still be started with confidence.
Terrance West (RB, BAL)
Terrance West has taken the lead RB role in Baltimore and flourished with it. Since Week 4, West has averaged 18 carries for 98 yards and a TD per game. This week the Ravens draw the Jets, who have allowed the 13th most points to the RB position. They are fresh off of allowing David Johnson to run all over them last week; 111 yards and three scores. With the way the Ravens have been running the ball recently, West is in line for yet another solid game. If the Ravens can get up early on Geno Smith, this one could be huge for West.
Dennis Pitta (TE, BAL)
Dennis Pitta is a great play in PPR formats this week. Over the past two weeks he has received 18 targets, catching 13 of them for 95 yards. The lack of TDs will hold Pitta back in standard scoring leagues, but against the team that has allowed the ninth most fantasy points to the TE position things could change this week. If you’re looking for a streamer option or if you already have Pitta on your roster, start him with confidence.
Matchups We Hate
Matt Forte (RB, NYJ)
Matt Forte has not been able to produce after his big Week 2 performance against the Bills. Last week he bottomed out and had his worst game of the season, rushing nine times for 19 yards, while catching only one pass for three yards. Lackluster QB play has allowed defenses to key in on stopping the run. Forte is too talented for this to continue, but it won’t get any easier this week against a Ravens front seven that has allowed the second least amount of fantasy points to RBs this season. They only allow on average 66 yards rushing to their opponents. If Geno Smith fails to get things going through the air, it will be another rough day at the office for Forte.
Notable Players
Mike Wallace (WR, BAL)
The most heavily targeted Baltimore WR gets an easy matchup this week with the Jets. They have allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season. QB Joe Flacco loves to air it out deep to Wallace, who is averaging 14.8 yards per reception. Wallace has a good chance to take the top off of a beatable secondary. If the Ravens manage to get up early it could be a somewhat quiet day for the Ravens WRs, which could happen given that they are going up against Geno Smith.
