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Week 7 Rankings Analysis - Pierre Camus vs. Industry Consensus

We get a temporary reprieve from the slaughter that bye weeks do to our lineups as only Detroit and Houston find themselves off this week. This is the point in year where norms have been established and you pretty much know if you're going to be a contender or not. With no lopsided matchups on tap, fewer injuries last week, and the majority of players available to start, this seems like a good week to play it safe and roll with who's been producing. That doesn't mean I won't deviate from that norm quite a bit on occasion...

As an expert ranker for RotoBaller and FantasyPros, I'll put my own personal rankings out on the table for you here and show you how they stack up against the consensus of the other 100+ experts at FantasyPros. Each week, I'll list my Top 10 per position, plus a few notable players that have risen or fallen in my rankings more than the expert consensus this week.

Note: all rankings are for standard leagues and all opinions are my own. If you have questions, comments, or incoherent ramblings related to fantasy sports, hit me up on Twitter @pfunk00 to continue the conversation.

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Week 7 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis

Top 10, plus notable outliers (deviation from consensus)

All we care about here is the Super Bowl rematch, right? Tom Brady has to be the top pick of all, but we are collectively dying to see how Matt Ryan responds. He had a down game against the Dolphins and is predictably regressing this season. That said, he faces the team that has allowed more points to QB than any team this season, even the Browns. Ryan is a must-start by all means.

Marcus Mariota is not a must-start if you have safer options, but those Browns are on the slate and we know they are the second-most generous team to opposing quarterbacks. If he's starting, it's hard not to roll with him. As far as DeMarco Murray, that's another issue...

This section is pretty nondescript, as I'm uncharacteristically sticking closer to consensus in Week 7. All I'll say is I wouldn't be shocked if Russell Wilson lets down in what looks like a good matchup. He's failed to reach even 200 passing yards or two TD in three of five games this season. His two fantasy relevant weeks came against AFC South opponents in consecutive weeks. If you own him, he's probably your starting QB, but if you are in a shallow enough league, I would prefer someone like Derek Carr, Carson Palmer or Tyrod Taylor.

 

Week 7 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis

Top 10, plus notable outliers (deviation from consensus)

Once again, a week where Ezekiel Elliott didn't appear in the rankings at all one day and then has to be reinserted into the top 10. As of this minute (checks Twitter feed) Zeke is playing on Sunday, so you must start him. Sorry if you paid up for Darren McFadden or Alfred Morris, but you had to know this could happen.

Kareem Hunt finally had a bad day and he still wound up with 110 total yards. Still, that's three straight weeks without a touchdown. He may be coming down to Earth a bit as opponents gameplan for him, but Oakland is not exactly a black hole for RB. They are bottom-10 against RB this year and he hasn't had any injury or legal concerns, unlike certain other players in this tier.

Mark Ingram makes his first appearance in the Top 10 this season. I hate to feel like I'm chasing last week's stats, but if his opponent wasn't the Packers, who have practically half their defensive roster on the injury report, then it might be different. Ingram has a 26% touch rate in the red zone, ranking him 18th among all RB this season. That kind of scoring upside makes him a low-end RB1 in favorable matchups.

I've been down on Marshawn Lynch all season and preseason, so I'm not sure how he's a +4 for me this week. I'll have to adjust that later.

Marlon Mack's top 25 ranking is no accident. Robert Turbin is gone for the year, so they have no choice but to lean on Mack more. Jacksonville has a great pass defense, but it's the opposite in the run game. They've allowed the second-most rushing yardage and 10th-most fantasy points to RB this season. As long as the Colts don't let Leonard Fournette run completely hog wild against them, this should be a close game and Mack should see double-digit carries.

Joe Mixon's matchup isn't that terrible this week, as Pittsburgh's defense has been schizophrenic this year and has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to RB to boot. That said, a short touchdown run (his first) isn't enough to get me excited about a rookie who's averaging 2.8 Y/A on the season and has a high of 62 yards on the ground. He might be worth a flex play, but he'll need to get into the end zone to pay off.

 

Week 7 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis

Top 10, plus notable outliers (deviation from consensus)

Michael Thomas has been very Dez Bryant-like in his struggles against better secondaries, while he tends to feast on weaker ones. Guess what's coming this week? Green Bay is flashing back to last year when they had to pull warm bodies off the street to play cornerback, so expect a nice bounce back from Thomas. Bryant goes up against the Niners, who are one of seven teams to allow over 1,000 yards to WR this season. With three TD in five games, Bryant is locked in as a WR1 in standard leagues.

I was burned by a Bronco last week, but I'm going back to the well one more time in a different position. If Emmanuel Sanders doesn't play, that means more targets for Bennie Fowler. Fowler saw eight targets last week, but more interestingly he is tied for the team lead this season with seven red zone targets. That two-TD game in Week 1 may not turn out to be a complete fluke. The Chargers have been fairly good against the pass, but they have allowed nine TD to wide receivers, which is second-most in the league. If Fowler hits paydirt and nothing else, he'll still turn out to be a great value and worth a flex spot. Demaryius Thomas, on the other hand, will be shadowed by Casey Hayward and receive extra attention from safeties without the deep threat of Sanders around. Oh, if it feels like forever since Thomas has scored a touchdown, you're kind of right. As RotoBaller user quicksilver1998 pointed out, he hasn't reached the end zone since Week 10 of 2016!

I'm also hoping selfishly that Kenny Stills puts up another score with DeVante Parker nursing a sprained ankle. Back in Week 3 against the Jets, with Parker playing, Stills saw 10 targets and brought in four for 51 yards. He can do better and just might be worth a shot. I've seen other WR that are similar in nature to Stills (primarily used as a deep threat, boom-bust type) ranked higher than him, but here's a quick comparison from the player tool at pro-football-reference.com to let you know what I'm thinking:

Stills has been on a team that was prolifically unprolific at scoring in the first couple of weeks, but seems to be getting on track after beating the Falcons and will be without their primary red zone threat. By comparison, J.J. Nelson and Tyrell Williams now have more competition in the receiving corps with the return of John Brown and Mike Williams respectively. For the short-term, I'm taking Stills easily.

Speaking of deep threats, Ted Ginn had a nice game last week against Detroit and showed he still has great speed and big play ability. Don't care. He could be fool's gold this week against a banged-up Packers secondary. Brees went to Ginn last week because Michael Thomas was blanketed throughout the game. That won't be the case this week, as Thomas should see plenty of action and the Saints will be able to run the ball as well.

 

Week 7 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis

Top 10, plus notable outliers (deviation from consensus)

It's still a bid odd to list Austin Seferian-Jenkins in the top five, much less as a starter, for two straight weeks. Still, he paid off in Week 6 and should have had a second touchdown in what might just be the worst officiating call I've seen in over 30 years of watching football. His target count jumped up to 11 against the Pats and shows no signs of slowing.

I'm also big on another Austin, which would be second-year man Austin Hooper. He is starting to carve out a role in Atlanta's offense, disappointing as it has been. Hooper has seen 16 targets the last two weeks, which bodes well for PPR value. You may remember his touchdown grab in the Super Bowl against the Patriots and that was back when their defense wasn't god awful. I'm putting him in a few starting lineups this week.

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Could the breakout of David Njoku happen this week? Evan Engram is getting all the attention, and rightfully so, but Njoku gets a far better matchup in Tennessee. Engram has nearly doubled Njoku's receptions and yardage totals, but Njoku has scored one more touchdown. Another interesting stat: Njoku has outtargeted Engram in the red zone 4:3. In PPR, Engram is clearly the play and presents a higher floor, but Njoku could stand out in standard leagues if he reaches the end zone.

The Giants' string of allowing a TD to tight ends continues last week with Jeff Heuerman getting the score as my A.J. Derby pick blew up in my face. Jimmy Graham is an elite talent, however, and has been targeted plenty as of late. He is a must-start in fantasy and a solid bet in cash games across the board.

 

More Week 7 Lineup Prep


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




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