In part four of this ongoing series, (which can be viewed here), I described what are called trend characteristics.  These are all signs of success.  Those quarterbacks with these characteristics in abundance are far more likely to succeed compared to those who lack the same abilities.

In the fifth part of the series we will review the first four installments and lay down the actual numbers for many of the younger quarterbacks in the NFL, while in the sixth and final installment, I will finally give my rankings for the rookie quarterbacks for 2017, along with some of my favorites that I found in the model.

While most dynasty startups have already drafted, the constant valuation that goes on in such leagues makes it essential to assess trade value and long-term potential of any and all assets, especially at a position like quarterback.

Crunching the Numbers

As explained in previous installments, TD/INT ratio, accuracy, hand size, TD/INT ratio, ball speed and round drafted in are all trends that should be paid attention to. This section is a reminder that although we can find trends in success, a wise interpreter would combine the knowledge in these pages to find those who fit the bill across the board.  These players are rare and are often highly touted because of it, but from time to time you may find someone like a Russell Wilson who had everything necessary to be a success in the NFL, but was overlooked due to transferring schools and his height.

For each of the following charts, the numbers are displayed by color according to the positive or negative depiction of the characteristics.  The spectrum goes from red to blue in order of negative to positive.  The order is as follows, Red, orange, yellow, light green, green, light blue, blue.  Obviously, you want more blue than red and the closer to blue, the better.

As you can see, each player had what it took to be successful because they had everything they needed to face the daily struggles seen in the NFL. Nearly every other successful QB have met these important benchmarks.

So, how can we use this information to our advantage?

It is crucial to make that right decision at QB in dynasty, Superflex and 2-QB leagues.  Winners and losers are often decided on this factor alone.  To mitigate the likelihood of bust, you should take all of these factors into consideration when choosing your longer term or yearly QB.  This year there are a couple younger QBs that have a chance to start and you should take heed at what the model says about their future success.

According to the model, each player is depicted in the same colors mentioned that categorize the strength of their characteristics.  Blue are can’t miss players who are likely perennial pro-bowlers.  Light blue depicts a can’t miss player that has the potential necessary to be a ten-year starter, but is just missing something a dark blue has.  Dark Green depicts a solid starter who has the upside to reach the top levels of the NFL.  Light green explains a conventional starter in the NFL, but very well may be worse off than the higher ranked players. Yellow is a give and take player, they have many flaws, but could overcome the odds and start for an NFL team. Orange is a caution sign, they may have many warning signs and with them, are unlikely to succeed in the NFL.  Finally, red indicates a player that has one or more of the “death knell” characteristics attached to them, history shows that they nearly always fail.

While some of these results aren't too surprising to draftniks, the predictions made in this model could shape the way dynasty owners view certain QBs in terms of value.

QB Success/Failure Analysis Series