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Since 2012, an average of over three rookie running backs per season have finished inside the top 24 at the position for fantasy football. In the same span, there have never been less than two. We saw a maximum of six in 2020.
In 2022, Breece Hall is the only rookie running back currently being selected in this range as RB19 in half-PPR formats.
History tells us it's almost a guarantee that another rookie will be a viable RB1 or RB2 in fantasy this year. The question is who has the best shot to return this value at a worthwhile draft price? Let's find out.
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2022 Rookie Running Back Breakdown
Let's get this out of the way first. If you managed to draft Dameon Pierce in the eighth round or later in your home leagues, congratulations, you've found the best rookie running back value. Once the Texans cut Marlon Mack though, Pierce's fantasy draft stock went through the roof.
Pierce is still probably a fine value in the sixth or seventh round, but Rex Burkhead still figures to be involved in what projects to be a bad Houston Texans offense. There's just a little too much risk for Pierce to be considered the best rookie running back value at his current cost.
Breece Hall's average draft position in the fourth round is acceptable value as well, but there are multiple wide receivers going in this range that present both higher floor and ceiling outcomes. The Jets will also utilize second-year running back Michael Carter, who will still be the RB1 in New York according to some reports.
Kenneth Walker III is being drafted early in the ninth round, but his Week 1 status is up in the air as he is still recovering from a hernia procedure. Rashaad Penny has been dominant when healthy and projects to be the starter in Seattle. It is unclear exactly what Walker's role will be when he returns to action.
The rookie running back I would like to highlight as the best value is James Cook, second-round NFL Draft pick for the Buffalo Bills.
Cook, like the aforementioned rookies, will share his team's backfield with other players. The Bills, however, outproduced both the Texans and Jets by over 1,200 yards and 150 points in 2021. The Seahawks, who should see a decline this year without Russell Wilson under center, were also far behind the Bills in offensive output last season.
Cook does not profile to be a Derrick Henry or Jonathan Taylor type of back capable of handling 20+ carries per game. He averaged just 7.5 rushing attempts per game in his final year at Georgia, which was the most of his collegiate career. He did average 6.6 yards per carry though, so he can definitely be effective when given the opportunity.
There’s a big misconception out there that says only RB workhorses can be good for Fantasy. Here are the RB1 finishes with under 200 carries since 2017. Ignore the critics who are fading James Cook & Rachaad White. pic.twitter.com/QfH7qA8akY
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) May 5, 2022
James Cook's Outlook For 2022 Fantasy Football
Devin Singletary will most likely see the bulk of carries for the Bills, especially towards the beginning of the season. But where Cook shines is in the passing game, which happens to be Buffalo's bread and butter.
In college last season, Cook turned 32 targets into 27 receptions, 284 yards, and four touchdowns. He did this in an offense that gave four other backs more than 50 total touches. Cook showcased his versatility as a receiver out of the backfield, in the slot, and on the outside.
The Bills threw the fifth-most passes in the league last year and less than 15% of them went to running backs. They finished 25th in total running back targets. This may have been part of the team's gameplan last season, but Buffalo's offseason moves suggest that they want to change their philosophy in 2022.
The Bills quickly agreed on a two-year deal with pass-catching specialist J.D. McKissic in free agency, only for him to change his mind and return to Washington. It was after this that they decided to spend an early draft pick on James Cook. He was selected in the same round as Hall and Walker and 44 picks ahead of Pierce.
With Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders out of town, there are over 180 targets vacated in Buffalo's offense. Jamison Crowder was added and big things are expected out of Gabe Davis and Isaiah McKenzie, but it is still highly possible that Cook carves out a role for himself in one of the most explosive offenses in football.
Zack Moss was a healthy scratch multiple times last season, so the team clearly has not yet been convinced that he is the complementary piece needed to spell Singletary. Cook has an obvious opportunity to be the primary pass-catching back as well as the RB2 that could steal some touches on early downs.
James Cook showing off the speed and breaking tackles ? (via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/RURfZ378Zv
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) August 20, 2022
As the fourth rookie running back off the board, James Cook is a screaming value late in the ninth round. He can easily make a fantasy impact right away and his snap count should increase as the season goes on.
Just like the rookie running backs taken ahead of him, Cook will have to compete for touches. His unique skillset and high draft capital, however, assure that he will be involved on a high-scoring Buffalo offense.
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