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Welcome back RotoBallers! As we head into Week 10 of the NFL season, we are now into the second half of the season and the playoff push is starting to heat up.
It's more critical than ever to make the right lineup decisions and start the right players to put out your optimal lineups, as we are getting into the point in the season where managers could be digging themselves a hole too deep to climb out of.
Listed below will be some players who could be in for a disappointing performance relative to their overall expectations. No matter how bad of a matchup some of these players may have, fantasy managers likely aren't in a position to leave them on their bench. Having said that, there are a couple of guys who are by no means a must-start in Week 10.
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Who Should You Bench or Sit in Week 10?
QB - Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Mayfield, who many feel is a better quarterback without Odell Beckham Jr., proved this narrative to be correct once again in Week 9 against the Cincinnati Bengals. The Cleveland Browns will now head on the road to face the New England Patriots, who have given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. It is no secret the Browns will look to run the ball, even with the possibility that they will be without Nick Chubb, who was placed on the COVID-19 list, and Kareem Hunt, who remains on injured reserve. D’Ernest Johnson is currently the only healthy running back on the roster, but the Browns don't need to change their identity too much. Johnson was able to finish with 146 rushing yards in his only start this season back in Week 7, so he is clearly capable of filling in to take pressure off Mayfield and the passing game.
Mayfield has not thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game all season and has surpassed 300 passing yards on just two separate occasions, both of which were in shootouts with the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. Although it’s possible, it is safe to say that this game will not be entering shootout territory due to the nature of both offenses. The Patriots have given up just 7.1 yards per attempt so far this season, so any sort of lack of passing volume for Mayfield, which we have seen on multiple occasions, will be detrimental to his fantasy value this week. He is by no means a must-sit option, but there is likely a very limited ceiling for the former first overall pick to reach in Week 10.
Is Antonio Gibson A Risky Start in Week 10?
Gibson, who has been one of the biggest disappointments so far this season, is in for another rough matchup with arguably the best-run defense in the league. The sophomore has been battling a shin injury for the past few weeks and has seen his role in the offense be diminished progressively. In his most recent game against Denver, Gibson carried the ball just eight times for 34 yards and added three catches for 20 yards. It is certainly possible that he gets back to his early-season role post-bye-week, but the matchup with Tampa Bay is still worrisome even with a large workload.
There is always the chance that Gibson falls into the end zone in this game, as we saw against the New Orleans Saints, who are another elite-run defense. That was the last time the 23-year-old scored a touchdown, as he posted 20 carries for 60 yards. Gibson has surpassed 70 rushing yards just one time this season, and that was all the way back in Week 1 against the league’s worst run defense. Fantasy managers likely can’t afford to bench their early-round draft picks at this point in the season, but Gibson is by no means a must-start this week based on what we have seen the past few weeks. Considering J.D. McKissic has once again taken on the bulk of the receiving work out of the backfield, Gibson has an extremely low floor in this game.
Fantasy PPG this season
- Antonio Gibson: 11.95
- JD McKissic: 11.43Gibson was a second round pick, McKissic was an after thought
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) November 11, 2021
Should You Start James Robinson in Week 10?
Robinson, who has been dealing with a heel injury, is expected to return to action against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, who have given up the sixth-fewest yards per carry so far this season. Although a hefty workload could offset any lack of efficiency in this one, there is a possibility that the undrafted free agent stud does not handle a full workload in his first game back from injury. The Jaguars typically have used a workhorse running back this season, as Carlos Hyde handled 21 carries in his absence in Week 9. But it wouldn't be a surprise to see them take a conservative approach with Robinson and make him limited in this game.
Even with a limited workload, there is always the possibility that Robinson punches a couple of touchdowns in, as we have seen his nose for the end zone the past few weeks. From Weeks 3-6, the sophomore has scored five times on the ground. Unfortunately, the Colts have given up just two rushing touchdowns all season, which is good for the fewest in the league. All things considered, fantasy managers likely have to start Robinson if he is active, but expectations should be lowered quite significantly. At best, he is an uninspiring RB2 option in Week 10.
Is Michael Carter A Risky Start in Week 10?
Carter has seen his role in the offense expand over the past few weeks, but he is in for a nightmare matchup with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. His usage has entered him into the weekly low-end RB2/RB3 borderline, as from Week 7 to Week 8 he has caught a combined 17 passes and has averaged 13 carries over the past three games. Based on the way he has been used in the offense, Carter seems to have a high floor because of his ability to catch passes, but he is going up against a Bills defense that has allowed just over 12 fantasy points per game this season to opposing running backs, which is good for the fewest in the league.
The Jets could have an extremely hard time moving the ball in this game, and the likely pass-heavy game script will do no favors for Carter’s rushing stats. Although he has seen an increased role in the passing game, Ty Johnson has also been a significant part of the Jets' passing attack, posting 16 targets in the past three games. Not to mention, Corey Davis will be back in the mix and rookie Elijah Moore is fresh off a breakout performance, meaning the Jets could give Mike White the green light to take some downfield shots to get chunk plays while playing from behind. A more limited role for Carter is certainly in the realm of possibilities in this game, meaning he is by no means a must-start. The rookie running back should be valued as no more than a FLEX play in Week 10.
Is Courtland Sutton A Risky Start in Week 10?
Sutton saw his lowest target total of the season last week in Dallas, much of which had to do with the positive rushing game script, but it is noteworthy that Jerry Jeudy commanded eight targets in his second game back from injury. Sutton is likely going to see a lot of cornerback Darius Slay, who has been one of the best lockdown defenders at his position so far this season. Some of the big names Slay has shut down this season include Calvin Ridley, who caught zero passes when defended by Slay, Amari Cooper, who caught one pass for six yards, Tyreek Hill, who caught one pass for 15 yards, and D.J. Moore, who caught two passes for 14 yards.
Not to mention, the Broncos have had their most success this season when they have established the running game, so we could see another heavy dose of Melvin Gordon III and rookie sensation Javonte Williams. Considering the Eagles have given up the seventh-most rushing yards, it is safe to say the Broncos will once again have a run-heavy game plan. Sutton has only produced strong stat lines for fantasy managers when he gets a ton of volume, as his three strong performances this year saw him average 12 targets. In his other six games, he is averaging just 2.8 receptions and 35 receiving yards per game, and he has only found the end zone in two games this season, both of which came in the games where he saw high usage. With that being said, it is safe to leave Sutton on the bench this week.
WRs covered by Darius Slay this season:
Calvin Ridley Week 1:
? 2 targets, 0 recBrandon Aiyuk Week 2:
? 1 rec, 6 yardsAmari Cooper Week 3:
? 1 rec, 6 yardsTyreek Hill Week 4:
? 1 rec, 15 yardsDJ Moore Week 5:
? 2 rec, 14 yardsMike Evans Week 6:
? 2 rec, 27 yards pic.twitter.com/YYKCZ3r6PS— PFF (@PFF) October 21, 2021
Should You Start Corey Davis in Week 10?
Davis will return to action this week against the first-ranked passing defense in the league, the Buffalo Bills. In what should be a pass-happy game plan based on the likely game script in this one, Davis could have some appeal based on sheer volume alone. But the matchup with Tre’Davious White and the rest of the Bills secondary is far too concerning to confidently put Davis in fantasy lineups this week. The Bills have given up just five touchdowns through the air this season, and when you consider that Davis likely needs to find the end zone to have noteworthy fantasy production, this matchup is a recipe for disaster.
Adding to that, the Bills have given up the second-lowest completion percentage, the fewest yards per attempt, and the fewest passing yards this season. Even if Davis sees 10+ targets in this game, he is by no means guaranteed to have a solid day for fantasy managers. Davis could have a game similar to Jaylen Waddle in Week 8 when he caught just four of his 11 targets for 29 yards against the stingy Buffalo secondary. Davis should be left on the bench in all formats and is at best a WR3 in Week 10.
Should You Start Dallas Goedert in Week 10?
With the Eagles' new run-heavy approach, Goedert could be limited for volume against a Broncos defense that has given up the third-fewest points per game to tight ends so far this season. It is mind-boggling that it wasn't until Miles Sanders went down that the Eagles started to establish the run, as Jordan Howard and Boston Scott have led the rushing attack in his absence. Goedert has managed to salvage his stat lines with some big plays the past couple of weeks, but he has averaged just four receptions over the past three contests. Fantasy managers would have liked to see far more production without Zach Ertz in the offense, but unfortunately, the production has been fairly similar with or without Ertz.
Jalen Hurts had just 17 pass attempts last week in what was a fairly neutral game script, so it is obvious that the Eagles would like to take the burden off of him in the passing game. Goedert will still be a must-start option due to the nature of his weak position, but fantasy managers should expect lower-end TE1 numbers because of the tough matchup and the likely run-heavy attack in this one.
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