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Who Ya Got: Schwarber or d'Arnaud?

By slgckgc on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC-BY-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Last offseason, I stumped fairly hard for Travis d'Arnaud as a fantasy sleeper, expecting him to build on his performance down the stretch in 2014. Unfortunately, he continued to have trouble staying on the field, as a pair of injuries put him on the shelf for most of the season's first half. When he did play, however, he was one of the best backstops in baseball, producing a .268/.340/.485 line with a dozen homers and 72 R+RBI in 67 games. That performance should garner him some attention from fantasy owners, but he won't be the buzziest pick at catcher. That honor will go to Kyle Schwarber.

The Cubs' rookie was a revelation, displaying mammoth power and patience at the tender age of 22. His numbers - .246/.355/.487, 16 homers, 95 R+RBI in 69 games - were similar to d'Arnaud's despite being three years younger. Miguel Montero still figures to draw a majority of the starts behind the plate, and there are enough questions about Schwarber's defense that his future may be in the outfield. But at least for 2016 he retains catcher eligibility, and getting the bulk of his playing time elsewhere would actually be a boon to his fantasy value.

While TDA and Schwarber's overall production last year was remarkably similar, they arrived at that point via different methods. Schwarber was a three true outcomes beast, logging a walk, homer, or strikeout in a whopping 48.3% of his plate appearances. Among qualified hitters, only fellow rookie Joc Pederson and MLB home run king Chris Davis posted a higher TTO%. d'Arnaud made more contact and drew fewer walks (though his 8.6 BB% would have ranked sixth among catchers if he'd had enough plate appearances to qualify). He doesn't have the raw power that Schwarber does, but he's better at using all fields and hits plenty of line drives.

It's difficult to say if either player will be able to stick behind the plate long-term. Schwarber was the fourth overall pick in the 2014 draft based almost entirely on his bat, and his defense remains very much a project. His arm isn't the most accurate and he's slow on the transfer, leaving him vulnerable to the running game. His receiving/framing grades out as average at best. The Cubs don't really have anywhere else to put him besides left field, and he's currently an adventure there as well, as anyone who watched him in the postseason can attest. It's certainly possible that with more reps at either position, his athleticism will allow him to be less of a liability in the field. As long as he keeps hitting, Chicago will live with his defense.

d'Arnaud, meanwhile, improved by most measures as a catcher last season. He upped his caught-stealing percentage from 19% to 33% and continued to rate well in pitch framing metrics. However, his inability to stay healthy going back to his days in the minors raises significant doubts about whether he can ever play a full season with the rigors of the position. The Mets also have Kevin Plawecki, who struggled as a rookie but is one of the top catching prospects in the game.

 

Who Ya Got?

Given the variables of age, injury history, and opportunity, Schwarber is the better option between the two. His Steamer projection is also much more favorable. However, both he and d'Arnaud should be excellent fantasy options in 2016 and beyond, and TDA figures to come cheaper on draft day.

 

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