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We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers through the offseason as we already completed our first run back in June.
Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team.
ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition.
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Wide Receivers - ADP Fallers
Michael Thomas - New Orleans Saints
Welp. Michael Thomas, even entering his first non-Brees season, projected to a rather nice fantasy haul in New Orleans for the 2021 campaign. Now? Not so much, mostly because of an injury he sustained in June that required surgery with an expected four-month recovery time. Uh oh. Obviously, Thomas' sky-high ADP is cratering. Thomas has gone from a borderline second-round pick in most fantasy leagues to a virtual afterthought (considering his talent), dropping all the way to an average ADP of 100 overall.
Four months on the shelf means Thomas is probably missing around five games. That, sadly, just removes him from any WR1 conversation. It is what it is. When we discuss players at the absolute top of the ladder, it makes no sense banking on anyone with even the slightest of concerns around his status or upside. That's Thomas this season, as much as we hate it.
The Saints already were to have it tough fielding either Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill at the QB position, and now they will also have to work with a receiving corps made out of Tre'Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, and TE Adam Trautman on top of that for at least a third of the season. The prices of those receivers aren't super-high (they're cheap, in fact), but what's the real upside they bring to the table, honestly? Make them WW targets at most.
Michael Pittman Jr. - Indianapolis Colts
It was all good around the Indy Colts... until it was not anymore. At the end of July, reports told us about WR Parris Campbell getting fully fit and ready to practice in full capacity during the month of August--the first knock on Pittman's upside. But a few days after that, the real blow came in the news of recently-signed QB Carson Wentz undergoing surgery and potentially missing 6-to-12 weeks.
There was a reason for Indianapolis to jump onto QB Brett Hundley just hours before this was reported, I guess--the second knock on Pittsman's upside. If Carson Wentz was already a borderline-draftable QB, he's now the man you have to fade no matter what. And with Hundley manning the offense, well, I need to be brutally honest and tell you to do so with all offensive players on the Colts for 2021.
Redraft leagues are about this-moment performance. Pittman wasn't probably going to win you the league, but he could be somewhat valuable. But now? Forget about it. Dynasty value might still be there, but nothing else. Pittman's ADP of 124 (nearly a 10th-rounder) needs to keep going down. I wouldn't advise taking Pittman in any draft, and if anything, just keep an eye on the WW and the performance of the Colts at the start of the year in case he somehow finds his way to some FP. Not worth the gamble.
Marquise Brown - Baltimore Ravens
Though Marquise Brown shows up in the chart above with the third-highest ADP drop among wideouts in the past month, the truth is that has only meant a 14-position fall which translates to not much more than a full round in 12-team leagues' drafts. So let's calm down a bit. That being said, there is legit concern regarding Brown and his hammy injury from earlier this month.
Brown got injured in the hamstring and it looks like the issues might be a little bit more worrisome than initially feared. Banged-up hammy + speedy athlete add up to problems, which is why fantasy GMs are shying away from Marquise, if only a bit. Adding wood to the Ravens' fire, rookie Rashod Bateman got injured himself on Aug. 10, leaving the receiving corps in a shaky state. Brown's GMs would have "celebrated" that news, but with Brown's own questionable situation, it's not that he's going to gain that much from Bateman's potential absence.
All of this stuff considered, Brown has moved between ADPs of 110 and 130 during the past few weeks. That's a reasonable price to pay for the potential WR1 in Baltimore come the 2021 campaign. Brown projects to 158+ PPR points and a WR59 finish with chances of getting into the WR4 realm (at least) if he truly connects with QB Lamar Jackson from day one. Brown has already reached 146.4 and 183 fantasy points in his two years as a pro, so it's not crazy to think he can keep raising the bar one more time this season.
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