Wide Receiver Best Ball Rankings and Fantasy Football Analysis (Part 2)

Many of you are now dedicating your efforts toward draft preparation and roster construction as we await the rapidly-approaching NFL Draft. This includes anyone who is involved in the best-ball format, which presents the opportunity to complete your roster management at the conclusion of each draft.

That’s why the team at RotoBaller continually updates our best-ball rankings, which provide you with a valuable resource for building league-winning rosters during 2022. These tiered rankings are designed to help you determine which players to target for your rosters, along with others that you should avoid at their current ADPs.

We are also delivering a detailed analysis of these rankings, which provides yet another element toward fulfilling your championship aspirations. That includes my two-part series that will focus on wide receivers. This article will examine Tiers 4-9, while you can also find a full breakdown of Tiers 1-3 here.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings - Best Ball

Tier 4

D.K. Metcalf,  D.J. Moore, Terry McLaurin, Elijah Moore, Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, Jerry Jeudy, Diontae Johnson, Michael Pittman Jr., Adam Thielen, DeVonta Smith

Several significant hurdles fueled a statistical downturn for Metcalf during 2021 when contrasted with his numbers from 2020. Metcalf did generate a career-high 12 touchdowns while contending with a lingering foot issue and the three-game absence of Russell Wilson (finger). However, his per-game averages during 2020 (8.1 targets/5.2 receptions/81.4 yards) dropped to 7.6 targets/4.4 receptions/56.9 yards last season. He was also relegated to career lows in catches of 20+ (11), and 40+ yards (two), while only reaching 100 yards in one contest.

His ADP has plunged from 31 (WR12) to 44 (WR15) since Seattle’s decision to jettison Wilson, and Metcalf’s prospects of displaying his home-run capabilities will now be dependent on the effectiveness of Drew Lock, or a quarterback that will be added to the Seahawks' roster.

The deficiencies that permeated Carolina’s 30th ranked offense during 2021 did not deter Moore from finishing at WR18. He established career highs in targets (163/9.6 per game/28.2% share) and receptions (93/5.5 per game) while surpassing 1,150 yards for a third consecutive season (1,157/68.1 per game). He also finished third overall in air yards (1727) and was sixth with a 39.9% share of air yards.

#Panthers WR D.J. Moore's final 2021 stats:

- 93 catches (163 targets)
- 57.1% catch success
- 1157 yards
- 4 TDs
- 48 rushing yards (6.0 YPC)
- 426 YAC
- 10 drops (6.1%)
- 6 INTs when targeted
- 72.0 passer rating when targeted
- 77.1 PFF grade pic.twitter.com/4Uw5fvmV64

— Cat Crave (@CatCraveBlog) January 17, 2022

Substandard performances from Sam Darnold and Cam Newton suppressed Moore’s output, and Carolina’s ongoing failure to procure a reliable presence under center has continued during the offseason. However, Moore has already displayed the ability to provide managers with WR2 numbers while operating in an attack that is laden with hurdles.

McLaurin surpassed expectations during his 2019 rookie season by placing second among newcomers in scoring and finishing at WR27 overall. His numbers rose universally during 2020, as he finished ninth in targets (134/8.9 per game), 11th in receiving yards (1,118/74.5 per game), and second with a 42% share of air yards.

It’s a touchdown for #WashingtonFootball! @TheTerry_25

?: #WASvsATL on FOX
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/WtIlIkBmrh

— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2021

However, McLaurin did not reward anyone who selected him as a WR1 during 2021 (ADP28/WR11), as he experienced declines in targets (130/7.6 per game), receptions (77/4.5 per game), and yardage (1,053/61.9 per game). McLaurin has been repeatedly encumbered by inadequate quarterback play during his tenure in Washington, but that situation could improve as Carson Wentz represents a slight upgrade under center.

Moore delivered a series of promising performances before a quad injury brought an abrupt end to his rookie season. He had averaged 5.2 targets, 1.8 receptions, and a microscopic 15.8 yards per game from Weeks 1-7, but those averages rose to 9.0 targets/5.6 receptions/78.4 yards from Weeks 9-13.

Moore also skyrocketed to WR4 from Weeks 11-13 while securing a league-high 51.8% share of air yards and finishing third in both target share (33.0%) and air yards (352). Moore’s prospects of fulfilling the expectations of his ADP (63/WR25) are partially dependent on Zach Wilson's level of improvement during his second season. The release of Jamison Crowder reduced Moore’s competition for targets, although New York could select a wide receiver early in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Robinson appeared to be a savvy selection at his Round 3 ADP last season after he finished among the top-four in targets (151/9.4 per game), receptions (102/6.4 per game), and red-zone targets (19) during 2020. However, Robinson assembled what was arguably the most disappointing season among all receivers, as his target share dropped from 25.4% to 19.2%. He also descended to 60th in targets (66/5.5 per game) and plummeted to WR81.

We have agreed to terms with WR Allen Robinson on a 3-year deal. ⤵️

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) March 17, 2022

Robinson is now positioned for a career resuscitation following his relocation to Los Angeles, as Sean McVay should deploy Robinson with greater creativity than he experienced during his final season with Chicago. The exodus of Robert Woods should also elevate Robinson into ongoing usage as the Rams’ WR2.

Godwin had risen to WR6 entering Week 15 and was second overall in both receptions (92/7.1 per game) and yard after catch (571). He was also fourth in receiving yardage (1,054/81.1 per game) and ninth in targets (120/9.2 per game/21.8% share) during that sequence. His season ended abruptly in Week 15, but Godwin had already established new career-highs in targets, receptions, and red-zone targets (25) before his knee injury.

His timeline for a return is uncertain. However, the Buccaneers re-signed Godwin to a three-year contract, and he will eventually join Mike Evans as the primary weapon in a passing attack that ranked first in 2021. His potential to miss games when the season launches should keep him available until Round 5 of your drafts.

Jeudy’s pedigree as Denver’s first-round selection in 2020 (15th overall) combined with his explosiveness and route running acumen to ignite significant interest in drafting him during 2020 and 2021. However, 12 drops and a 46% catch rate offset his finishes of sixth in air yards (1,541) and 14th in yards before catch per reception (11.0) during his rookie season, while a seven-game absence (ankle) and deficient quarterback play restricted last year’s output (56 targets/5.6 per game), (38 receptions/3.8 per game), (467 yards/46.7 per game).

Uh oh ? #WeWorking https://t.co/EoZ5JnCj8B

— Jerry Jeudy⁴ (@jerryjeudy) March 29, 2022

Wilson’s arrival should finally deliver the elixir that transforms disappointment into gratification for anyone who selects Jeudy, as he should flourish with a quarterback who can maximize his ability to gain separation from overmatched defenders.

Johnson was one of just three receivers who averaged 10+ targets per game throughout the regular season (10.6), and his 12 games with double-digit target totals placed him second overall. He also finished sixth in target share (28.4%) while his 169 targets tied him for second behind Cooper Kupp.

Johnson also eclipsed 100 catches and 1,000 yards for the first time in his career, while finishing fifth in receptions (107/6.7 per game), sixth in yards after catch (527), and generating a career-high eight touchdowns. Johnson should not relinquish his role as the Steelers’ primary receiving weapon regardless of who ultimately emerges under center.

MICHAEL PITTMAN JR. MOSSED HIM
pic.twitter.com/qpVfNEG21L

— PFF (@PFF) October 12, 2021

Pittman became the uncontested WR1 for Indianapolis by capturing a 25.8% target share and leading the Colts in a plethora of categories. Pittman also collected 10+ targets in five different games, which propelled him to 14th overall from Weeks 1-18 (129/8.4 per game). He also finished among the top-16 in receptions (88/5.2 per game), receiving yards (1,082/63.6 per game), yards before catch (734), and red-zone targets (16).

JUST THROW IT UP TO MICHAEL PITTMAN PART 2
pic.twitter.com/c2G3wnOIG3

— PFF (@PFF) October 25, 2021

No other wide receivers on the Indianapolis roster exceeded 38 receptions, or 384 yards, as T. Y. Hilton was limited to career-lows in each category (23 receptions/331 yards). Pittman is positioned to retain his responsibilities as Indy’s primary option in an attack that will now be spearheaded by 15-year veteran Matt Ryan.

Thielen will re-emerge for a ninth season with Minnesota after restructuring his contract in March. He will turn 32 in August, but his responsibilities as the Vikings’ WR2 will remain intact - as will his opportunity to operate with Kirk Cousins under center. Thielen had generated a league-high 10 touchdowns from Weeks 1-12 and was 15th in targets (90/8.2 per game), 10th in red-zone targets (14), and ninth in catches of 20+ (13).

He suffered an ankle injury in Week 13, which limited him to 29 snaps during Minnesota’s remaining matchups. However, he will not be impeded by his December surgery, and the Vikings’ depth chart has remained unaltered during the offseason. This makes Thielen a viable option at his Round 8 ADP.

Smith led all rookies in targets from Weeks 1-5 (40/8.0 per game) and was averaging 7.6 targets, 4.6 receptions, and 58 yards per game from Weeks 1-7. He was also 12th in air yards (702) and 13th with a 38.1% share of air yards during those matchups.

Top 1️⃣0️⃣ @DeVontaSmith_6 plays of ????!

?⚪️#FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/fG2qUUQOZM

— ?? Philadelphia Eagles UK (@UKEagles_) March 29, 2022

Unfortunately, Smith’s opportunities diminished from Weeks 8-18 as the Eagles transitioned to a run-heavy approach. He averaged 5.1 targets/3.2 receptions/51 yards per game, as Jalen Hurts averaged 23.8 attempts per game and Philadelphia finished dead last in pass play percentage (48.8%).

Smith remains capable of justifying his Round 1 pedigree, even if the Eagles seize another wide receiver early in the NFL Draft. However, he must be utilized with greater frequency before he can approach numbers that will be accrued by the most productive members of his 2021 class.

Tier 5

Mike Williams, Darnell Mooney, Tyler Lockett, Brandin Cooks, Courtland Sutton, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Thomas

Mike Will make the catch. ?@darealmike_dub | @chargers pic.twitter.com/br1TRd8KBK

— NFL (@NFL) March 10, 2022

The Chargers signed Williams to a three-year extension after he constructed the most prolific season of his career. His numbers were bolstered significantly by extensive usage from Weeks 1-5 when Williams averaged 10.2 targets per game. He also ascended to WR2, led the league in touchdowns (six), and was fifth in both receiving yardage (471/94.2 per game) and air yards (589) during that span.

His averages diminished to 6.1 targets/4.0 receptions/59.6 yards per game from Weeks 8-14, while he only scored once. However, he ended the season at WR12, assembled nine touchdowns. and finished among the top-15 in targets (129/9.1 per game), receiving yards (1,146/71.6 per game), and air yards (1,497). He remains one of Justin Herbert’s top two weapons which delivers your motivation to target him in Round 6.

Mooney became Chicago’s primary receiving option in 2021 while capturing a 26.7% target share. That placed him 10th among all wide receivers while he also finished inside the top-20 in receptions (81/4.8 per game), receiving yards (1,055/62.1 per game), air yards (1,480), and percentage share of air yards (34.9%). His 57.9% catch rate was a byproduct of Justin Fields’ inefficiency, as Fields finished 32nd in both completion percentage (58.9%) and bad throw percentage (21.9%).

Darnell Mooney with a catch of the week contender ?

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/CAnPxAkfpC

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 3, 2021

Mooney remains affixed atop the Bears’ depth chart following the exodus of Robinson. He will continue to build chemistry with Fields while operating as the WR1 in Chicago's restructured offense.

Lockett turns 30 in September and will be encumbered by the production-inhibiting combination of a significant downgrade at quarterback and Pete Carroll’s enhanced commitment to Seattle’s ground game. Lockett did finish fourth in receptions of 20+ (22) and was fifth in catches of 40+ (seven) during 2021. He also achieved career-highs in receiving yards (1,185/73.4 per game), aDOT (14.6), yards before catch (898), yards per reception (16.1), and 100-yard performances (five). However, the departure of Wilson has created a formidable hurdle that should prevent Lockett from approaching those numbers this season. It has also provided justification for avoiding him until Round 9 of your drafts.

Cooks was the unchallenged WR1 for Houston during 2021, as he finished 12th with a career-high 134 targets (8.4 per game/26.9% share). He also collected a career-best 90 receptions (5.6 per game) and eclipsed 1,000 yards for the sixth time in seven seasons (1,037/64.8 per game). Cooks also finished at WR20 while operating in an attack that ranked 28th in passing (194.4 yards per game), and dead last in total offense (278.1 yards per game). Concerns surrounding the limitations of Houston’s attack should be outweighed by Cooks’ potential to accumulate fantasy points as the Texans’ most targeted weapon.

Sutton’s 2021 began with encouraging results, as he averaged 8.8 targets/78.5 yards per game from Weeks 1-6. He also paced the NFL in air yards (1,006) and was fourth with a 42.1% share of air yards from Weeks 1-8.

However, his usage and production diminished significantly from Weeks 9-18 (4.0 targets/21.9 yards per game), while he also plunged to just 50th in air yards (484) and 38th with a 27.9% share of air yards.

That statistical downturn coincided with Jeudy’s Week 8 return from his protracted ankle issue. However, Sutton’s forgettable numbers should improve dramatically, as Wilson should take full advantage of his capabilities as a downfield weapon.

St. Brown was only WR62 from Weeks 1-12, with a 15.8% target share, and per-game averages of 4.7 targets/3.5 receptions/32 receiving yards. However, he skyrocketed to WR2 from Weeks 13-18, while emerging as an invaluable resource for fantasy managers during that sequence. He also vaulted to second overall in targets (67/11.2 per game) and receptions (51/8.5 per game) and was third in target share (33.5%), receiving yards (560/93.3 per game), and touchdowns (five) during those matchups.

Amon-Ra St. Brown powers his way to the goal line!@Lions take the lead in ATL. #OnePride

?: #DETvsATL on FOX
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/bBWOMkRgeq

— NFL (@NFL) December 26, 2021

If D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson can achieve sustained health, it will impede St. Brown from replicating the numbers that he assembled during his late-season eruption. However, his production should be sufficient to justify targeting him in Round 6.

Thomas generated nine touchdowns in three of his first four seasons, as his target, reception, and yardage totals steadily improved. All of which culminated with his exceptional numbers during 2019 (185 targets/11.6), (149 receptions/9.3 per game), 1,725 yards/107.8 per game). However, there are reasons to avoid him at his ADP (62/WR23).

Thomas is now 29 and has only played in seven games since 2019. He will also resurface in an offense that has transformed since his last appearance. Sean Payton is no longer the architect of New Orleans’ attack, and Jameis Winston is now operating under center. These factors should incentivize you to manage expectations.

Tier 6

Robert Woods, Marquise Brown, Treylon Burks, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Brandon Aiyuk, Hunter Renfrow, Jarvis Landry, Garrett Wilson, Gabriel Davis, Chase Claypool, Rashod Bateman

Matthew Stafford’s arrival did not trigger the same statistical eruption for Woods as it did for teammate Kupp, as Woods was averaging 7.7 targets, 5.0 receptions, and 61.8 receiving yards per game from Weeks 1-9 - before experiencing a season-ending torn ACL. Woods was dispatched to Tennessee after Los Angeles signed Robinson and will operate as the WR2 in an offense that ranked just 31st in pass play percentage (51.4%). That limits Woods from consideration as anything beyond a WR3.

Lamar Jackson bombs one and Marquise Brown lays out for an outstanding touchdown catch. What a play. pic.twitter.com/dDcskJzVs1

— Tyler Greever (@Tyler_Greever) October 3, 2021

Brown operated with Lamar Jackson during 12 of his 17 matchups in 2021 (ankle/illness), along with a combination of Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson during Baltimore’s remaining contests. That did not prevent him from finishing seventh in air yards (1,622), ninth in targets (146/9.1 per game/26,3% share), and eclipsing 1,000 yards for the first time in his career (1,008/63 per game). Brown can be targeted as a high-end WR3 - even though Rashod Bateman will confiscate a respectable percentage of targets.

There are divergent opinions surrounding Burks, who collected 146 receptions and assembled 2,399 yards as a three-year starter at Arkansas. Concerns emerged after he completed the 40-yard dash in 4.55 at the NFL Combine.

Keep seeing Treylon Burks dropping on mocks after his combine time...but his game speed and acceleration after the catch looks plenty fine to me ?‍♀️ pic.twitter.com/G8hPDZNugG

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) March 31, 2022

However, the 6’2”, 225-pound Burks remains one of the most intriguing prospects from this year’s class of wide receivers, as his size, strength, and athleticism provide the potential for him to become a difference-maker at the NFL level.

Smith-Schuster was limited to 222 snaps before a shoulder injury abruptly ended his season in Week 5. He had only been averaging a career-low 3.0 receptions and 25.8 yards per game before his injury while failing to generate a touchdown. However, he is positioned to seize a sizable role in Kansas City, where Tyreek Hill's departure has initiated a restructuring of the Chiefs’ passing attack. This makes Smith-Schuster a viable selection at his Round 7 ADP, although his outlook could be altered if KC infuses additional weapons into the equation.

Home Alone in the back of the end zone ? @THE2ERA#SFvsTEN on @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/yKUb1cZ4kq

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) December 24, 2021

Aiyuk’s snap share improved from 69% in Weeks 1-8 to 93% from Weeks 9-18. He also averaged 6.2 targets/4.3 receptions during his last 10 matchups, while vaulting to seventh in both receiving yards (685/68.5 per game) and yards after catch (303). That surge occurred during Deebo Samuel's escalated involvement as a rusher - which could diminish this season. However, Samuel’s presence should not prevent Aiyuk from outperforming the expectations of his ADP (104/WR38).

Renfrow soared to fifth among all receivers in targets from Weeks 9-14 (55/9.2 per game/24.8% share) and was second in receptions (48/8 per game) and yards after catch (226).

Hunter Renfrow's route running is ridiculous ? pic.twitter.com/813yBllVaP

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 15, 2021

That sequence propelled Renfrow to WR10 from Weeks 1-18, while he finished eighth in receptions (103/6.1 per game) and 10th in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement). The Raiders’ offense will be altered by the arrivals of Josh McDaniels and Davante Adams, but Renfrow can still function as a WR3 for fantasy managers.

Landry averaged 149 targets, 96 receptions, and 1,086 receiving yards from 2015 to 2019. However, he finished 2021 with career lows in targets (87/7.3 per game), receptions (52/4.3 per game), receiving yards (570/47.5 per game), and touchdowns (two). Landry's status remains unclear following his release by Cleveland. His outlook would improve if he resurfaces in a favorable environment, but he is no longer a candidate to garner sizable usage or eclipse 1,000 yards.

Wilson could easily become the first wide receiver to be selected during the NFL draft, after collecting 143 receptions and accumulating 2,213 receiving yards/23 touchdowns during three collegiate seasons. His most prolific numbers were assembled in 2021, as Wilson accumulated 70 receptions, 1,058 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Wilson also ran the 40-yard dash in 4.38 at the NFL Combine, and his athleticism and burst are among the attributes that elevate his big-play potential. He should quickly develop into a valuable resource for managers.

Gabriel Davis is going to be a star ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/4TR3eBPEAL

— PFF (@PFF) February 23, 2022

Davis performed on 35.5% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps from Weeks 2-13 while averaging just 2.4 targets, 1.5 receptions, and 27.5 yards per game. His role expanded from Weeks 14 to 18, while his snap share skyrocketed to 87.9%.

He finished second on the team in targets (32/8.0 per game), receptions (16/4.0 per game), yardage (207/51.8 per game), and tied for the team lead in touchdowns (three). He will now enter Week 1 as the Bills’ WR2 behind Stefon Diggs.

Claypool’s snap share rose from 63% during 2020 to 80% last season. However, his receptions per game average remained stationary (3.9), while his averages in targets (6.8/7.0) and yards per game (54.6/57.3) only rose marginally. His yards after catch decreased (329/283), as did his aDOT (13.2/11.4), while his touchdown total also plummeted (9/2). His prospects of receiving more downfield opportunities should improve with Pittsburgh’s transition from Ben Roethlisberger.

Bateman underwent core-muscle surgery in August and did not emerge for his NFL debut until Week 6. He finished at WR47 from Weeks 6-18, which only placed him sixth among all rookies. Bateman’s 58.7% snap share from Weeks 6-13 did rise to 81.7% from Weeks 14-18, while he averaged 5.8 targets, 3.6 receptions, and 43.0 receiving yards per game. He should function as Baltimore’s WR2, although Brown and Mark Andrews will confiscate larger target shares.

Tier 7

Tyler Boyd, Christian Kirk, Drake London, Russell Gage, Tim Patrick, Chris Olave, Kadarius Toney, Corey Davis, Kenny Golladay, Van Jefferson, DeVante Parker, Jakobi Meyers, Cordarrelle Patterson, 

Boyd's usage remains constrained due to the collective presence of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. However, analysis that focuses on Kirk's career stats is underestimating his potential to surpass those numbers in Jacksonville.

Newcomers London and Olave will ascend into a higher tier if they surface in favorable environments, while Gage can function as Tampa Bay's WR2 until Godwin returns from his recovery. Patrick signed a three-year extension in November and remains an underrated resource in the best ball format (ADP-182/WR59).

Davis' draft position will drop if the Jets seize a receiver early in the upcoming draft, while managers who select Toney or Golladay must maintain optimism that Brian Daboll can place them in a position to expand their output. Jefferson's numbers could be suppressed by the addition of Robinson and the potential for Odell Beckham Jr. to resurface with the Rams.

Parker could join new teammate Meyers as New England's most targeted wide receivers, but Patterson's role could be drastically altered after the Falcons infuse new personnel into their offense.

Tiers 8-9

Jameson Williams, Michael Gallup, Rondale Moore, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nico Collins, Curtis Samuel, Robby Anderson, Mecole Hardman,  George Pickens, Joshua Palmer, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Laviska Shenault Jr., Allen Lazard, Braxton Berrios Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, Marquez Callaway, Cedrick Wilson, Kendrick Bourne, K.J. Osborn

The collection of wide receivers that are contained in these tiers is located from WR59-WR78 in our latest rankings. A sizable number of factors could develop that would alter their value during the offseason.

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