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In fantasy football, there are "sleepers," or players we expect to outproduce their average draft position (ADP), and then there are "deep sleepers." These deep sleepers aren't on many people's radar. They may be coming off of a down season or they may find themselves in a much different situation from a season ago. Either way, they're not getting enough attention and have an opportunity to far outproduce their ADP this season.
In this article, we'll focus on the wide receiver position. Whether it's an ambiguous situation, an upgrade at quarterback or head coach, or climbing up the depth chart, each of the three guys listed below has a chance to outproduce their ADP this season. Here are your wide receiver deep draft sleepers for 2022.
Check out early RB sleepers and deep Superflex QB sleepers when you're done here.
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Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: WR104)
Jones currently has an ADP of WR104, but he’s the 33rd-highest-paid receiver by annual salary ($8 million per year). It’s $10 million less per year than the Jaguars gave to Christian Kirk this offseason, but that seems to be baked into their respective ADPs (Kirk’s ADP is WR42). The best situations to buy into are those that we expect to see major improvements year over year. Jacksonville is the definition of that.
When presented with the opportunity, Jones has shown an ability to earn targets in ambiguous offenses, or offenses that don’t have a clear alpha already established. Again, that’s probably what we’re looking at with Jacksonville in 2022. We want to invest in these kinds of offenses, and we want to do so at a minimal cost. Jones gives us the ability to have a hand in what should be a much-improved offense this season at a fraction of the cost of Kirk (WR42) and even Marvin Jones (WR76).
Money certainly doesn’t buy targets, but it can secure playing time. In 2018, Jones turned 102 targets into 56 catches, 652 yards, and seven touchdowns for the Buffalo Bills. That was good for a top-40 season. Then he joined the Raiders and found himself firmly behind at least Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow in the pecking order. In fact, he barely saw the field in 2020 and most of 2021. That is until Waller got hurt in Week 12 last season. From Week 12 on, Jones averaged 7.7 targets on 31.9 routes per game (24.2% targets per route run). He also averaged 97.7 air yards per game. He’s a big-time deep threat, and new Jags head coach Doug Pederson knows it.
Last season, the Jaguars averaged 35.5 pass attempts and 60.5 offensive plays per game. That’s a high percentage of passes (58.7%). In Pederson’s five seasons coaching the Philadelphia Eagles, they attempted around 37.2 passes and 66.7 offensive plays per game (55.7% pass plays). With Trevor Lawrence’s skill set and the Jaguars likely finding themselves trailing in many games, don’t be surprised to see the pass attempts per game increase to 36 or 37 per game. This should give a guy like Jones even more opportunities to burn a defense deep.
At cost, there’s absolutely no reason you shouldn’t be taking a flyer on Zay Jones in deep leagues.
Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers (ADP: WR78)
There’s a lot to like about Josh Palmer, especially at his cost of just WR78. His first vote of confidence this offseason was that the Chargers didn’t take a wide receiver in the 2022 NFL Draft. With Palmer supplanting Jalen Guyton as the WR3 late last season, the expectation should be that continues heading into the 2022 season, especially considering how successful he was from Week 14 on. In Weeks 14, 16, and 18, Palmer saw a snap share greater than 60%. In those three games, he averaged 7.3 targets and 76.7 air yards per game. He also found the end zone in each one of those games, which led to an average of 15.8 PPR points per game. Not too shabby for the WR3 on his team.
Chances are he doesn’t average north of seven targets and 75 air yards per game in 2022 with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler hogging most of the targets. However, there will be weeks he’s still good for 50-60 yards and a score, making him a potential bye week fill-in on occasion. But what happens when any of these guys are forced to miss time? We never want to assume injuries will occur, but we must realize they’re part of the game. That’s what helps us become better fantasy football players. In the case Allen or Williams is sidelined, Palmer would immediately step into the WR2 role. It’s not just any old WR2 role, it’s the WR2 role in one of the most up-tempo offenses in the NFL (39.6 pass attempts per game: 66.4 offensive plays per game), catching passes from one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL in Justin Herbert.
Again, Palmer flashed enough as a rookie that the Chargers didn’t feel the need to take a single wide receiver in the 2022 NFL Draft. If they’re that high on the 22-year-old heading into his sophomore season, you should be too. Don’t miss the opportunity to draft a high-end wide receiver handcuff with some weekly standalone value at the back end of your fantasy drafts this season.
Tim Patrick, Denver Broncos (ADP: WR65)
You wouldn’t believe it based on his ADP, but Patrick led all Broncos receivers with 9.8 PPR points per game (PPG) a season ago. He outpaced both Courtland Sutton (8.8 PPG) and Jerry Jeudy (8.5 PPG). The only logical explanation for the discrepancies in ADP is the fact that Sutton is a former second-round pick and Jeudy is a former first-round selection just two years ago. Sutton does have a top-25 fantasy finish under his belt, but his target competition was few and far between. It included Patrick, but he was just a part-time, second-year undrafted free agent (UDFA) at the time. Since then, the former UDFA has shown to be a very reliable pass-catcher despite sub-par quarterback play from Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater.
Patrick has been so reliable the past two seasons that the Broncos extended him for three years, $29.25 million. At 6’4,” 212 lbs, he’ll continue operating as the outside receiver opposite Sutton, with Jeudy in the slot. Last season, Jeudy lined up in the slot on 66% of his snaps. Patrick was out wide 80.4% of the time with just 19.6% of his snaps coming from the slot. Why does this matter though? Last season, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett primarily played out wide while Freddie Swain and a few tight ends operated mostly out of the slot. Swain cracked double-digit fantasy points in just one game last season, while Metcalf and Lockett were both top-20 receivers.
Now, this isn’t to say Russell Wilson doesn’t look to his slot man, as Lockett saw over half his snaps from the slot in 2020, a year in which he finished as a top-10 receiver. It just goes to show you Patrick should have a real opportunity as a big-bodied guy with an 83rd percentile burst score and 87th percentile catch radius (per PlayerProfiler).
Last season, when all three of Sutton, Jeudy, and Patrick were on the field together (10 games), Sutton averaged 3.8 targets, Jeudy averaged 5.6 targets, and Patrick averaged 5.0 targets per game. Sutton’s biggest games of the season came without Jeudy in the lineup, while Patrick was able to sustain at least some fantasy value when all three guys were on the field at the same time.
As discussed earlier with Zay Jones, we try to target wide receivers either in ambiguous offenses or offenses that are getting a massive upgrade. In this instance, it’s the latter, as Wilson brings a whole new level of talent that these receivers have never played with before at the professional level. We can pass on both Sutton and Jeudy (top-25 WRs by ADP) and still get a piece of this high-powered offense at just a fraction of the cost at WR65. Now that’s value!
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