RADIO
As fantasy football continues to grow and grow with no signs of slowing down anytime soon, there is more content available than ever. That is a good thing, but it has led to players being put under a microscope. Analysts are constantly using film and analytics to scout them and find the next breakouts to target and busts to avoid. It’s remarkable because there is more quality content out there than ever.
But one flaw is that now players are viewed almost as their own separate entities. If a receiver stands out on film or there are analytics that show that the player is capable of taking a step forward, that player will be hyped up and likely see their ADP climb. We look at the player but often disregard or overlook the offense and situation they play in. To get a full picture of a receiver and their capabilities, you must factor in the QB and the offense just as much as the player's abilities. That comes even more into play when a team has multiple receivers who can step up in the passing game.
We know receivers can thrive if they are seeing a large volume share, but what about those that must share the spotlight? With more receiver talent entering the league than ever, more and more teams are stockpiling the position and having both high-end talent and depth. So, with teams using more receivers than ever, I had the question – how difficult is it for a team to have two high-end fantasy receiver options? I also wondered if it came down to the receivers or the offense as a whole. The answer may surprise you!
Teams with Multiple Top Fantasy WRs
The first step was to identify the teams that supported multiple top fantasy options at the wide receiver position. Since there was only one team to have multiple receivers finish inside the Top-12 (Chargers) I decided to look at teams that had multiple receivers finish as Top-24 and Top-36 receivers. That makes them WR2 or WR3 for fantasy – but of course, some also finished as WR1.
I looked at teams that had players reach these marks in both total fantasy points and fantasy PPG. So, for example, the Jets had multiple receivers finish inside the Top-36 in fantasy PPG, while the Patriots had multiple receivers in the Top-36 in total points. But since they did not meet both thresholds, they are not included. Here are the seven teams that met this requirement:
| Top-24 | Top-36 | |
| Teams | Bengals, Buccaneers, Chargers, Seahawks | Cowboys, Rams, Vikings |
Now that we have the criteria and the teams that met them, it’s time to put those offenses under a microscope and see if we can pick up on any trends.
What Did These Offenses Have in Common?
The first trait that these seven have is, well, they need to be good offenses! Of these seven teams last year, six of them finished inside the Top-11 in offensive scoring, with the Seahawks being the lone exception. Of those offenses, five of them ranked inside the Top-12 in pass attempts, with the Bengals (21st) and somehow Seattle (31st) being the exceptions here. Surprisingly, of these teams, only the Bucs and Chargers ranked high in pass play percentage last year, but all seven of these offenses threw on at least 61 percent of their plays.
Last season, there were nine teams that did not meet that threshold (Cardinals, Broncos, Browns, Colts, Saints, Patriots, Eagles, 49ers, Titans). Additionally, six of the seven of these offenses ranked in the Top-10 in passing yards, with Seattle again being the exception. All seven ranked inside the Top-10 in passing touchdowns – with four of them being in the top five - emphasizing that of all these stats, touchdowns remain the most important in fantasy football.
Volume is clearly a very important requirement here, but it’s not the end all be all. A team can combat a lack of volume with high efficiency, it is just harder to obtain and more difficult to sustain. While Seattle was often the exception in the stats above, they did lead the league in pass attempts of 20-plus air yards. They were unable to match the volume of the other offenses, but they made up for it by picking up yards in chunks.
Of all these teams, six of them ranked in the top 13 in that stat, with the lone exception, surprisingly being the Chargers, despite Justin Herbert having a cannon. And speaking of efficiency, all seven offenses ranked inside the Top-12 in passing yards per attempt, with at least 7.2 per attempt. They also all ranked inside the top nine in touchdown percentage, with all posting at least a 5.3 percent touchdown rate. This once again points out that for a team to be able to sustain multiple top fantasy receivers, then that team needs to throw for a lot of touchdowns.
It may sound simple, but many times a secondary receiver on a bad offense will get hyped up for fantasy purposes. Before doing so, you must be sure that that offense will rank inside the top third in terms of passing touchdowns. If you do not think an offense can do so, chasing their second receiver inside the Top-36 is a mistake.
I tried to take it a step further and see if there were other similarities between these offenses. When I checked out their pace of play, I was surprised to see that the Rams and Bengals ranked in the bottom third of offensive plays per game, while Seattle ran the fewest in the league.
What about alignments? There was no correlation there either. I checked to see if it was related to teams running more two or three-receiver sets. Turns out the Rams and Bengals ran more three-receiver (11 personnel) sets than any team, while the Bucs and Cowboys were in the Top-10, but the Vikings ran this formation the fourth-fewest in the NFL. However, the Seahawks, Chargers and Cowboys finished in the Top-10 in two-receiver sets (12 personnel). This shows that the results for an offense are what matters, not how they get those results.
It does not matter the type of offense a team runs, but for them to have multiple receivers finish highly in fantasy, then they need to finish in the top third of the league in passing touchdowns and likely passing yards as well, but can combat that with high efficiency, but that is tougher to predict.
QB Stats on These Offenses
Now that we know about the offenses that produced multiple high-end fantasy receivers, we need to look at the quarterbacks as well. First, just look at the names that met these criteria: Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. Outside of Cousins, all were drafted as a QB1 last year, showing that a big ingredient here is targeting receivers with a high-powered quarterback. But not only were all these QBs drafted early, they were top options themselves in fantasy. Six of the seven finished as a Top-11 QB in total fantasy points, with Wilson being the lone exception because he missed time due to injury. All seven finished inside the Top-13 at the position in fantasy PPG.
Taking it a step further than just fantasy finishes, here are the average stats from a QB that had multiple receivers finish as a Top-24 fantasy WR in both total points and fantasy PPG: 4,689 pass yds, 36.3 pass TD, 6.1% TD rate. To find this, I used the Seattle team stats since Wilson missed time. They also bring the yardage numbers down a good bit as they were more the anomaly there.
Of the QBs that supported multiple receivers as Top-36 options, here were the stats they averaged last season: 4,519 pass yds, 37 TDs, 6.3% TD rate. Again, you need an offense that can put up both a lot of passing yards and touchdowns to sustain multiple top options. But nothing is more important than the touchdowns.
Of these seven QBs, they averaged a TD rate over six percent, and none had a rate less than 5.7 percent. In fact, these seven QBs finished inside the top eight in touchdown percent in 2021, only Aaron Rodgers joined them and did not have two top receiver options. Last season, only 12 QBs had a TD percent over five percent, while only six had a TD percent of six percent or higher. The margin for error here is slim and not many QBs can sustain a high TD rate like that over the course of a full season. If you do not think a quarterback is capable of doing so, you should not draft their second receiver inside the Top-36 at the position.
Takeaway
The biggest takeaway from this is that in order for a team to be able to sustain multiple receivers inside the top 24 or 36, they need to score a lot of touchdowns. I know it sounds insanely simple, but it is not. Often you hear about teams with multiple options as “having too many mouths to feed.” Meanwhile, everyone wants to be first to find a shiny new toy, so many secondary receiver options have been hyped up over the years. But, unless a team and a QB can meet the thresholds listed above, you are banking on an outlier, which is never smart to do in fantasy.
Here are the more important thresholds to keep in mind: offense finishing in the top third in scoring and passing yards but finishing inside the top-10 in passing TDs is a must. You also want a team that will throw at least 61 percent of the time. For QBs, you want a receiver tied to a fantasy QB1, as well as one that can throw at least 4,500 yards and over 30 TDs, with a TD rate over five percent – but more so closer to six. Those are tough numbers to put up, meaning that there are over half the offenses in football that should not have more than one receiver – if that- going in the Top-36 off the board.
Now, situations change yearly, more so heading into 2022 than ever before. This study does not mean these are the only seven teams that can have multiple receivers finish as top options. But it just shows us the type of offenses we should be looking for if we want to invest in a secondary receiver option early on. There are other teams that could meet these thresholds, such as the Bills, Chiefs, Raiders, Broncos and Browns. Notice, all are teams with proven established QBs. There are others that could see their QB take a jump, like the Jaguars or Jets, but investing that highly in two of their receivers means you would need that QB to make a very big jump for the receivers to return value.
One team that will put this theory to the ultimate test is the Dolphins with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Both are top talents in real life and fantasy – both going off the board within the first 20 receivers. But will Tua Tagovailoa be able to support two high-end options? There are three outcomes to this situation: one or both receivers end up busting and not returning draft day value, the Dolphins have a hyper-funneled offense that relies on high efficiency (like the 2021 Seahawks) or Tagovailoa breaks out and both return value. The path to success for both receivers is certainly the tougher route and you get no discount on draft day to take that gamble. Because of that, I have largely avoided the duo of Dolphins receivers in drafts.
This also shows us that secondary receivers on this high-powered offense can be underrated at times, as people are fearful of the top receiver taking volume away. But the thing is, the more yards and touchdowns a team produces, the more there are to go around. So, a player like Allen Robinson, who is the unquestioned second receiver on a high-powered offense with a proven QB who has already sustained multiple top options, is a screaming value going off the board as a WR3. That appears to be his floor in this offense, at worst, while he still does possess low-end WR1 upside. Not only that, but he has such an easier path to fantasy success than other secondary pieces like DeVonta Smith, Tyler Lockett and Elijah Moore, all of who have similar ADPs currently.
So again, for a team to support multiple top fantasy receivers, the offense and the QB need to be able to meet certain thresholds. If you have doubts if they can, do not pay up for a secondary option. If you take one thing away from this article let it be this:
Make sure to follow Michael on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio
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