Wide Receivers - Rest of Season Rankings for Fantasy Football

This is the time of the fantasy football season when teams with losing records either start to panic or lose interest and stop making moves to improve their teams. It's also the time when RotoBallers like yourself, who know they are always contenders, prepare for the second half by looking ahead and making smart roster moves.

This article isn't geared specifically toward trade advice or waiver wire suggestions, as we already have that covered. It does help to have an idea of every player's relative value on a larger scale rather than just the coming week.

To that end, I am sharing my rest-of-season wide receiver rankings ahead of Week 8 just as I did for running backs the previous week. These are updated on a regular basis and will almost certainly be adjusted again in another week, so keep that in mind. I'll provide a rationale as to my ranking as well as identify some potential risers and fallers.

Updated Wide Receiver Rankings: Rest-Of-Season

*ECR denotes Expert Consensus Ranking on FantasyPros

Midseason Surprises

Cooper Kupp isn't just the top-scoring player in fantasy football this year, he's on a historic pace on par with Randy Moss from 2007 and Calvin Johnson from 2012. It's silly to put him anywhere but number one right now. Davante Adams missing Week 8 to fall further behind Kupp just seals the deal.

Cooper Kupp is on pace to break Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yards record (1,964)

— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) October 25, 2021

I will admit that I not only failed to foresee Ja'Marr Chase as a top-10 wide receiver this season but I had him 10 spots below the expert consensus. for draft rankings. The preseason struggles that turned out to be meaningless played a small part but I was more convinced that Tee Higgins would remain the top receiver in Cincinnati. Wrong on both counts. Higgins has been targeted plenty in the five games he's played, but he's averaging just six yards per target and 51.2 yards per game. That's why both he and Tyler Boyd have dropped significantly in my rankings.

Like Kupp, Chase is now also chasing history. He is on pace for 1,831 yards as a rookie, which would shatter Justin Jefferson's yardage total of 1,400 from a year ago.

With 201 receiving yards today, Ja’Marr Chase now has 754 receiving yards this season.

That’s the most by any player through their first 7 career games in NFL history. pic.twitter.com/WZXsbmazmH

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 24, 2021

Deebo Samuel isn't just the top receiver in San Francisco's offense, he IS the offense. With George Kittle on IR and Brandon Aiyuk halfway in the doghouse (Trey Sermon occupies the other half), Samuel is monopolizing targets by the Bay. He has the highest team target share among all receivers at 34%, just above Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp. He has caught fewer than five passes only once this year and has gone over 90 yards in four of his first six games. This could change once Kittle returns but there's no doubt he's a locked-in WR1 for the time being.

Mike Williams has leapfrogged teammate Keenan Allen in fantasy value this year, outscoring him by 33 PPR points so far. Williams is currently sixth in fantasy points per game among wide receivers. Much of the discrepancy between him and Allen can be chalked up to touchdowns. Williams has scored six times compared to once for Allen despite the fact that Allen has nine red-zone targets compared to five for Williams. The gap may narrow as the season goes on but as long as Williams stays healthy, he looks like a locked-in WR2.

Who Can You Set and Forget?

The reassuring moniker of a "locked-in" WR1 or WR2 is one we'd like to have established for our starting receivers from day one. Sadly, it no longer applies to players like Allen Robinson, Julio Jones, or Robert Woods. It's no coincidence that all three are catching balls from different quarterbacks this season. For the short term, Tyler Lockett has also fallen out of the weekly must-start category. In two starts without Russell Wilson, Lockett has caught two passes in each game with 35 and 12 yards respectively. So, who can you trust?

For me, the cutoff comes around WR27 with Chase Claypool. Any receiver below that point can be benched if matchup dictates or if a better option presents itself. Claypool himself only now makes the cutoff of a weekly must-start because of JuJu Smith-Schuster's season-ending injury and the high ceiling during the fantasy playoffs. In Weeks 14-17, Pittsburgh will face Minnesota, Tennessee, Kansas City, and Cleveland. All of those defenses are in the bottom half of the league in terms of fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers, with Tennessee ranking dead last. That's also a good reason to keep Diontae Johnson in the top-10.

The only player above that position who is in danger of losing "must-start" eligibility is D.J. Moore, through no fault of his own. After a scorching start to the season, Sam Darnold has a 2-5 TD-INT rate and 52% completion rate over the last three games. Not surprisingly, the Panthers lost all three contests. If Christian McCaffrey should ever return in full capacity, it could lift the offense back near previous heights. Moore has gotten by with 73 yards the last two games and is too talented of a player to drop off completely but it's a stark reminder of how receiver values are inextricably tied to their quarterbacks.

The Importance of QB-WR Pairing

We've already discussed Tyler Lockett's erratic weekly production. His fantasy data chart resembles a BitCoin value tracker. The best example of poor QB play tanking WR values is, of course, Chicago. Despite having a former Pro Bowl WR1, they grade out as the fourth-worst receiving team according to PFF.

Allen Robinson has a grand total of 250 receiving yards over seven games. His season-high was 63 yards and he's been held under 50 yards five times. Rising second-year receiver Darnell Mooney has fared similarly with only two games over the 45-yard mark. Each player has one touchdown on the year. It's not Justin Fields alone to blame but the struggles of this offense has sapped the receiving corps of fantasy goodness.

It only makes sense that Julio Jones was going to see a dip in production based on the change in offensive schemes. The Atlanta Falcons rank in the top-five in pass attempts per game for the fifth straight season; the Titans are 23rd this year which is no surprise since they were 30th last year. It's not a matter of Tannehill being an inferior passer that is affecting Jones' production so much as the mentality. Atlanta is often forced to pass and Ryan knew to feed his top target. Jones is now the WR2 behind A.J. Brown and simply won't see the same target share ever again so long as Derrick Henry is around.

On the positive side, it's fascinating to see the leap that Cooper Kupp has taken since breakfast buddy Matthew Stafford took over. He has always been a good receiver but has taken it to the next level in 2021, earning a career-best 89.9 grade from PFF that is third-best among all receivers and represents a big leap from last season.

image taken from PFF.com

Jerry Jeudy has also predictably seen a huge jump in efficiency this season with the move from Drew Lock to Teddy Bridgewater. Of course, we're talking about a one-game sample so it's not fair to assume he will continue on the exact same pace but he should see a far higher number of catchable balls than he did as a rookie. His return from injury could foreshadow a second-half breakout.

Below Consensus WRs

Before the season began, I had CeeDee Lamb pegged as a top-10 fantasy WR and went so far as to call him a must-have player who would exceed draft capital. We have no choice but to accept the fact that this offense won't run through the wideouts first, as Dalton Schultz is third on the team in target share at 17% and they have six players with 15 targets or more (Blake Jarwin has 14 as well). Michael Gallup is practicing and will return in full by Week 9, so Lamb's window for target dominance is actually closing. He's still a weekly must-start based on upside but I am tempering expectations quite a bit especially with Dak Prescott sitting in Week 8 and nursing a calf injury.

As a Dolfan, I wasn't thrilled when the team spent their first draft pick to grab a receiver. Not that I have anything against Jaylen Waddle, who is a superb talent. I just thought they should have taken Penei Sewell to fortify the O-line and selected a receiver like Rashod Bateman later. We'll never know what could have been but we do know that Waddle is the leading receiver in Miami with 44 receptions although Mike Gesicki has more yardage. This has come with DeVante Parker and Will Fuller sidelined the past three weeks though.

I also have those receivers ranked even farther below the consensus but this isn't an anti-Tua Tagovailoa stance at all! In fact, I'm one of Tua's biggest stans. This is about a team in disarray and an offensive scheme that spreads the ball around. I don't believe any one receiver will carry enough fantasy value to be a dependable weekly starter once all three receivers are healthy, assuming that ever happens. Gesicki and Myles Gaskin also get their share of targets. Waddle is a great dynasty asset but this might be the time to sell high while he's seeing such a huge target share.

Speaking of the rookie WR class, I was shocked and appalled when Kadarius Toney was taken before Bateman. In Week 5, he showed everyone why the Giants were so high on him as he went for 189 yards on 10 receptions against the Cowboys. That success was short-lived as he suffered an ankle injury the following week after taking just six snaps and hasn't played since. He may appear in Week 8 but could be on a limited snap count, then gets a tough matchup with the Raiders' secondary before the team's Week 10 bye. He could be a great value beyond that point but he'll also have to fight for targets with Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton now that they are both back on the field, so don't count on another 13-target game.

As detailed above, Julio Jones isn't the player we knew in Atlanta anymore. It could be injuries to blame more so than a drop-off in skills but those injuries have been a recurring issue since last year. He also moved from gunslinging Matt Ryan to game-managing Ryan Tannehill and the opportunities he previously had won't be coming back. He is bordering on droppable in 12-team redraft leagues.

Potential Risers

I've suddenly, without warning, jumped onto the Nico Collins bandwagon. He caught one pass in each of the first two games, then missed three games with injury. In Week 7, he gained just 28 yards yet somehow managed to lead the team in receiving. That's a sign of how bad this offense has gotten but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Tyrod Taylor should be back before long to infuse life into the passing game and Collins could emerge as a viable streamer beyond Week 10.

Russell Gage was one of my favorite draft sleepers as he was supposed to take over as the WR2 in Atlanta with Julio Jones gone. We've already discussed how the Falcons remain pass-heavy under a new coaching staff, mostly out of necessity. Gage essentially did nothing the first two weeks and then hit the shelf with an injury. He saw six targets in his first game back, going for 67 yards and a touchdown. The fact that Kyle Pitts has already broken out and Cordarrelle Patterson is just behind Pitts and Ridley in receptions relegates Gage to the fourth option at best, however. He could have occasional flex appeal in this offense so those in 14-team leagues and deeper should pay attention.

Will we see Curtis Samuel anytime soon? He seemed to be a perfect fit for this offense that still needs a dynamic playmaker other than Terry McLaurin in the passing game. If he continues to miss time for his groin injury suffered in preseason, an IR stint is possible. At that point, he can be ignored ROS. For now, I'm holding out hope but the fact he can't even practice is not promising.

Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown Not Practicing https://t.co/hwk1vh2MZE

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) October 28, 2021

This definitely borders on overly optimistic, but Anthony Miller landing in Pittsburgh may be a great match. With JuJu Smith-Schuster out for the season and nobody else well-equipped to handle the slot, Miller has a chance to make an impact. He played in the slot 86% of the time last year and would make it easier on the other receivers to remain in their current positions. Miller is a talented receiver but seems to have worn out his welcome in Chicago and didn't fit in with Houston. A fresh start might be just what he needs and Mike Tomlin is a player's coach who could embrace him. I'm not adding Miller in redraft leagues just yet but he is definitely on the watch list.

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