Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Risers and Fallers for Week 16

Congratulations to those of you who are preparing for Week 16 matchups. Your wide receivers remain essential components toward your primary goal of securing league championships, and an expanding assortment of tools is available that can provide you with an extensive level of knowledge during this critical week. Those results are contained in this weekly statistical breakdown of multiple categories, which is designed to help you fulfill your championship aspirations.

This will be the 15th installment that will examine game-specific data, including updated totals for targets, first downs, red-zone targets, snap counts, and a compilation of advanced statistics. The information that is contained in this weekly report will analyze how various receivers are being utilized, and how effectively they are capitalizing on their opportunities. This massive collection of data supplies the foundation from which the numbers that are generated in various categories can be evaluated.

During these final weeks of the season, all noteworthy changes in usage and production will be blended into the equation. That will bolster your efforts to determine which wide receivers should be in your lineups, and which are worthy of remaining on your rosters during your postseason matchups. Statistics from our newly designed player pages at RotoBaller were included during the compilation of data, while Pro Football Reference, NextGenStats, Rotowire, Rotoviz, PFF, and Football Outsiders were also used as resources in the creation of this report. Good luck with your matchups in Week 16.

Week 15 Target Leaders

We've said it, and we'll say it again. That 9️⃣➡️? connection is SPECIAL.

? @NFLonFOX | @CooperKupp pic.twitter.com/Jc7ow9FI6s

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) December 22, 2021

Cooper Kupp’s unmatched usage and output continued in Week 15, which includes his overall lead in targets (164). He has reached double-digit target totals in 13 of his 14 matchups, including each of his last six contests.

HOW ???

?: #KCvsLAC on FOX pic.twitter.com/2XkAulxlkr

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 17, 2021

Tyreek Hill has now accumulated 144 targets, after attaining double digits for the ninth time this season. He has also accrued 13+ in four different games. Justin Jefferson has now collected 137, after averaging 13 per game since Week 13. Davante Adams is tied for fourth overall (135), even though his total in Week 15 was the lowest since Week 7. That ties Adams with Diontae Johnson whose five targets in Week 15 were the fewest since Week 5. That also brought an abrupt conclusion to his streak of five games in which he had captured 10+.

Keenan Allen has now assembled 134 targets, after collecting 10+ during six of his last seven matchups. His 10.9 targets per game average also place him fourth overall during that span. D.J. Moore is next (133) after averaging 10.3 per game during his last three outings. Stefon Diggs has now accumulated 128 targets, even though he has been limited to seven in two of his last three contests. Chris Godwin finished his season with 127 targets and had received seven in Week 15 before his season-ending injury (ACL).

Marquise Brown has now accrued 121 targets, which has been fueled by his 11.1 per game average since Week 7. Brandin Cooks is next (119) after commandeering 21 since Week 14, and his recent usage will be discussed further in the Five Things I Noticed section. Jaylen Waddle has accumulated 115 targets, even though he was unavailable when Miami hosted the Jets in Week 15 (reserve/COVID list).

Filthy route for @renfrowhunter.

?: #LVvsKC on CBS
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/JUTlpdEgwB

— NFL (@NFL) December 12, 2021

Hunter Renfrow is next (111), as his overall total has been bolstered by the 24 that he captured in Weeks 13-14. Terry McLaurin has accrued 110 targets, even though he has been relegated to an average o 4.0 per game since Week 13. CeeDee Lamb has now assembled 109 targets after amassing 32 during his last three matchups. Mike Williams has collected 108 after attaining his highest weekly totals since Week 5 when the Chargers hosted Kansas City (9).

Michael Pittman Jr. is next (104) even though he has been limited to five targets during three of his last five contests. That ties him with D.K. Metcalf, who attained a double-digit total for just the second time this season when he collected 12 in Week 15. Jakobi Meyers also captured 12 targets in Week 15 which propelled his overall total to 102. That ties item with Ja'Marr Chase, who only received four targets when Cincinnati traveled to Denver in Week 15. Darnell Mooney has also assembled 102 after averaging 6.3 during his last three matchups.

Cole Beasley is next (101) after averaging 9.5 per game since Week 14. Mike Evans completes the list of 23 wide receivers who have accumulated 100+ targets from Weeks 1-15, despite being limited to just one during Tampa Bay’s Week 15 encounter with New Orleans (hamstring). The combination of a groin injury and usage as a running back has resulted in Deebo Samuel's 3.4 targets per game average since Week 10. However, he has still attained 98 targets as San Francisco enters Week 16.

Marvin Jones is next with 93, even though he has failed to exceed four targets during two of his last three matchups. That ties him with Tyler Lockett, who was absent during Seattle’s Week 15 NFC West showdown with the Rams (reserve/COVID list). Adam Thielen's overall total remains stationed at 92, while he contends with the ankle issue that has sidelined him since Week 13. Tee Higgins has now been relegated to three targets in two different matchups since Week 11. However, he has still averaged 7.7 per game from Weeks 1 -14 while accruing 92 throughout the season. Laviska Shenault Jr. has accumulated 90 targets, after averaging 6.6 per game since Week 11.

Kupp and Jefferson have accumulated the most targets from Weeks 12-15 (48), while Godwin had accrued 44 prior to his injury.  Johnson is fourth overall with 40, while both Marquise Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown are tied with 39. Renfrow is next (38), followed by two receivers that are tied at 36: Diggs and Gage. Four receivers are tied at 32 (Cooks/Lamb/Higgins/Metcalf), while Moore and Michael Gallup have both collected 31 targets during that sequence. Williams is next (30), followed by Adams (29) and four receivers that have assembled 28: Allen, Shenault, Zay Jones, and Laquon Treadwell.

Five different receivers are averaging at least 10 targets per game – Kupp (11.7), Johnson (10.4), Adams (10.4), Allen (10.3), and Hill (10.3). Kupp has collected 10+ targets in 13 different matchups, while Johnson has eclipsed 10+  in 10 contests.  Allen and Hill have accomplished it nine times, while Jefferson and Moore have reached 10+ in eight contests. Marquise Brown has reached double-digits in seven matchups, while Adams, Waddle, and Diggs have accumulated at least 10 targets in six different games.

Week 15 Weekly Changes  

12 different wide receivers collected at least 10 targets during their Week 15 matchups. That includes Marquise Brown, who accrued 14 when Baltimore hosted Green Bay. It was also the seventh time that he has eclipsed 10+ this season.

Clutch TD ➡️ our favorite celly #BudLightCelly | @BudLight pic.twitter.com/qyURpWXyDq

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 17, 2021

Hill’s 13 targets placed him in a tie for second among all receivers in Week 15, while also representing his highest weekly total since Week 8. That tied him with Kupp, whose unrelenting accumulation of double-digit target totals included his collection of 13 in Week 15. Christian Kirk had averaged 5.4 targets per game from Weeks 1-14, with weekly totals that have ranged between 1-8. However, he secured a season-high 12 in Week 15 as the passing attack operated without DeAndre Hopkins. That tied Kirk with Jakobi Meyers, who attained a double-digit total for the first time since Week 4. Meyers had also averaged 5.9 per game from Weeks 5-11. Metcalf also collected 12 targets when Seattle visited the Rams, which was his highest weekly total since Week 12 of 2020.

St. Brown was featured in last week’s article after he accumulated 12 targets in Weeks 13-14. He is now fourth among all receivers with 35 during his last three matchups, after accruing 11 during Detroit’s unexpected win over Arizona in Week 15. D.J. Moore also captured 11 targets and has now eclipsed 10+ in three consecutive games. Gage tied with Moore and St. Brown by also assembling 11 targets in Week 15, which was his second double-digit total during his last three games.

Allen’s 10 targets were collected following a one-game absence (reserve/COVID), as he has only failed to reach 10 targets in four different matchups this season.  Cooks has now accumulated 21 targets during his last two contests, after collecting 10 in Week 15. Hill had accumulated 9+ targets in 10 of his 14 matchups. However, he was relegated to a season-low four in Week 14. The 13 targets that he collected from Patrick Mahomes in Week 15 fueled this week’s largest increase of +9.

Antoine Wesley entered Week 15 with 11 career targets. However, he attained an 85% snap share when Arizona hosted the Rams, and easily established a career-high with his eight targets from Kyler Murray. Marquise Brown had averaged a league-high 12.3 targets per game from Weeks 7-12 but had only averaged 7.5 per game in Weeks 13-14. His 14 targets in Week 15 were the most among all wide receivers during their matchups. That produced his weekly rise of +6.

Kyler goes DEEP to Christian Kirk! #RedSea pic.twitter.com/fzOIqkkCm9

— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) December 14, 2021

Kirk’s 12 targets tied his career-high, which had been established in Week 1 of 2019. It also expanded his weekly totals by +6. Marquez Callaway collected nine targets when New Orleans traveled to Tampa Bay, which represented the second-highest total of his career. It also produced a weekly rise of +5 following his streak of five consecutive outings with just four targets from Weeks 10-14.  That tied Callaway with Russell Gage, who has now collected 11+ targets during two of his last three matchups. Those performances were interspersed with his six-target outing in Week 14, which resulted in his weekly increase of +5. Courtland Sutton's seven targets propelled him to his highest weekly total since Week 6, which produced his expanded week-to-week total of +5.

Renfrow had averaged 9.2 targets per game from Weeks 9-14, which included the first two double-digit targets totals of his career in Weeks 13-14. However, the third-year receiver was relegated to five targets when Las Vegas traveled to Cleveland, which resulted in a weekly decline of -9. That tied him with Braxton Berrios, who had accumulated 10 targets in Week 14 but was relegated to only one in Week 15. Brandon Aiyuk had captured a season-high 10 targets during San Francisco's Week 14 matchup with Cincinnati but was promptly limited to just two targets from Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 15. That produced Aiyuk's weekly drop of -8.

Chase Claypool collected nine targets in Week 14 when Pittsburgh traveled to Minnesota, but his two targets in Week 15 resulted in his lowest weekly total since Week 7 of 2020. That also created his weekly plunge of -7. Adams and Diggs were both targeted seven times in Week 15 after each receiver captured 13 during their matchups in Week 14.  That produced their weekly declines of -6. It also tied them with K.J. Osborn, who was limited to three targets just one week after he tied his career-high with nine in Week 15. Three members of the 2021 rookie class also experienced weekly declines of -6. That includes Rashod Bateman - who was limited to two targets during Baltimore's Week 15 matchup with Green Bay. He was joined by fellow newcomers Nico Collins and Josh Palmer, who had combined for 17 targets in Week 14 but were relegated to five in Week 15.

Week 15 Air Yards

TD ➡️ Griddy

It's the routine for Justin Jefferson ⭐️

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/Z0AoHxQJpt

— ESPN (@espn) December 21, 2021

Justin Jefferson has maintained the league lead in air yards for three consecutive weeks, after expanding his overall total to 1,742. Jefferson has also accumulated 243 more air yards than any other wide receiver, including Terry McLaurin, who is second overall with 1,499. Stefon Diggs is next (1,480), followed by Tyreek Hill (1,478), Cooper Kupp (1.475), D.J. Moore (1,432), Tyler Lockett (1.399), Marquise Brown (1,393), Ja’Marr Chase (1,355), Davante Adams (1,353), and Courtland Sutton with 1,347.

D.K. Metcalf is next (1,338), followed by Mike Evans (1,291), Brandin Cooks (1,259), DeVonta Smith (1,215), Diontae Johnson (1,214), Mike Williams (1,157), Darnell Mooney (1,156), and Keenan Allen (1,144). CeeDee Lamb is next (1,118), followed by Marvin Jones (1,117), Tee Higgins (1,112), and Michael Pittman with 1,107, Emmanuel Sanders (1,061), Jakobi Meyers (1,010), and Chase Claypool (1,007) complete the list of 26 wide receivers who have accumulated over 1,000 yards entering their matchups in Weeks 16.

Odell Beckham leads his position in percentage share of air yards (51.4%), followed by Jefferson (45.8%), McLaurin (43.01%), Lockett (42.3%), Cooks (41.1%), Moore (40.0%), Josh Reynolds (38.9%), and A.J. Brown (38.9%). Chase is next (38.2%), followed by Hill (38.0%), Smith (37.0%), Sutton (36.8%), Johnson (36.8%), Adams (36.6%), Metcalf (36.3%), DeVante Parker (35.6%), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (35.4%). Higgins is next (35.3%), followed by Kupp (34.2%) Diggs (33.9%), Pittman (33.9%), Marquise Brown (33.6%), and Claypool (33.5%). Mooney 33.3% and Allen (30.8%) complete the collection of 26 receivers who have attained a percentage share of 30+

Week 15 First Downs

Cooper Kupp has sustained his league lead in first down receptions (75), while Tyreek Hill a second overall (69). Davante Adams is next (66), followed by Justin Jefferson (64), Keenan Allen (58), Chris Godwin (55), and two receivers that are tied at 52: Stefon Diggs and D. J. Moore. Jaylen Waddle has collected 50 first down receptions, followed by Diontae Johnson (49), CeeDee Lamb (47), Mike Evans (47), Michael Pittman (44), Mike Williams (43), and three receivers that are at 42 (Hunter Renfrow/Jamar Chase/Deebo Samuel). Brandin Cooks and D.K. Metcalf are tied with 41, followed by Tee Higgins (39), Terry McLaurin (39), and Christian Kirk (37).

Four receivers are tied at 36 (Adam Thielen/Darnell Mooney/Amari Cooper). DeVonta Smith), followed by two receivers who have attained 34 (Marquise Brown/Jakobi Meyers). Three receivers have accumulated 33 first down receptions (Tim Patrick/Tyler Boyd/Tyler Lockett), while two additional receivers are tied at 32 (Cole Beasley/A.J. Green). Three receivers have captured 31 receptions (Courtland Sutton/Chase Claypool/A.J. Brown), while Amon-Ra St. Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and Marvin Jones complete the list of 42 receivers who have accumulated 30+ first down receptions entering Week 16.

Week 15 Red Zone Targets

.@CooperKupp broke the franchise receptions record with a TD. Of course he did.

? @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/tvpetO9GAC

— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) December 22, 2021

Cooper Kupp leads all wide receivers with 30 red zone targets. Chris Godwin is currently second, despite his season-ending torn ACL (26). Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill are tied with 22 receptions, while Justin Jefferson and Charger teammates Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are tied with 21. Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow have both collected 20 targets, while Diontae Johnson and Mike Evans have been targeted 16 times. Van Jefferson and D.K. Metcalf have both accrued 15 targets, while six different receivers have accumulated 14 (Randall Cobb/ A.J. Green/Adam Thielen/D’Andre Hopkins/Gabriel Davis/Marquise Brown).

Five receivers have garnered 13 targets inside the 20: Michael Pittman, Jaylen Waddle, Courtland Sutton, Mecole Hartman, and Amari Cooper. Zack Pascal, Coles Beasley, and Jamison Crowder have accrued 12 red zone targets, while three receivers have captured 11 (D.J. Moore/Ja’Marr Chase/CeeDee Lamb). Seven different receivers have collected 10 red zone targets: Tim Patrick, Marvin Jones, Tee Higgins, Jakobi Meyers, Nick Westbrook, Brandin Cooks, and Allen Lazard.

Kupp also leads his position with 14 targets inside the 10-yard line. Williams is second (12) followed by three receivers that have collected 11 targets (Adams/Renfrow/Cobb). Allen has captured 10 targets, while six different receivers have been targeted nine times inside the 10: Justin Jefferson, Johnson, Diggs, Evans, Pittman, and Pascal.

Kupp has also accumulated the most targets inside the 5-yard line (10), followed by Williams (8), and four receivers that have been targeted six times (Adams/Cobb/ Jefferson)/Hopkins). Four receivers have also accumulated five targets (Allen/Johnson/ Evans/Thielen), while Pascal and Hill are among the 11 receivers who have been targeted four times inside the 5.

Week 15 Snap Counts

Justin Jefferson leads all wide receivers with 807 offensive snaps, while Chris Godwin was the only other receiver who has eclipsed 800 entering Week 16 (802). D.J. Moore is third overall with 788, followed by Mike Evans (782), Marvin Jones (769), Ja’Marr Chase (767), Robby Anderson (764), Michael Pittman (761), and Courtland Sutton (760). Darnell Mooney is next (758), followed by Terry McLaurin (754), Stefon Diggs (747), and two receivers who are tied at 746 (Cooper Kupp/Zach Pascal).

Diontae Johnson has accumulated 739 snaps, followed by Tim Patrick (738), Keenan Allen (737), Jakobi Meyers (736), Mike Williams (731), and Tyreek Hill (729). Marquise Brown is next (722), followed by Brandin Cooks (719) and Davante Adams completing the list of 23 receivers who have accumulated 700+ offensive snaps.

Johnson leads the position in snap count percentage (92.8%), followed by Jones (90.2%), Chase (89.1%), Adams (88.4%), Mooney (87.9%), and Justin Jefferson (87.7%). Jeffersons teammate Thielen is next (87.4%), followed by Lockett (87.2%), Allen (87.1%), Cooks (86.8%), Moore (86.8%), Pittman (86.3%), Sutton (85.8%), and Meyers (85.3%). Pascal is next (84.6%), followed by Anderson (84.1%), Allen Robinson (83.3%), Patrick (83.3%), Evans (82.6%), and McLaurin (82.0%).

Five Things I Noticed

1. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were in the lineup together for the Chargers’ AFC West matchup against the Chiefs in Week 15, which reunited Justin Herbert with his top two receiving options. Allen instantly reclaimed his role as the primary receiving weapon for Los Angeles. while combining with Williams for a 51.3% target share. Their presence dramatically impacted Josh Palmer and Jalen Guyton, who combined for an 8.1% share.

THURSDAY NIGHT THOUCHDOWN BAYBEEEE#ProBowlVote + @Keenan13Allen
(?: fox, nfln, prime) pic.twitter.com/7HlIvTw980

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) December 17, 2021

Allen was placed on the reserve/COVID list on December 6, which sidelined him when the Chargers hosted the Giants in Week 14. He had been third overall among all wide receivers in targets (124/10.3 per game) before his absence, while his 27.8% target share was the league’s 11th highest. He was also third in receptions (86/7.2 per game), eighth in receiving yards (929/77.4 per game), fifth in first down receptions (53), and ninth in yards before catch (634).

Allen resurfaced in Week 15 to lead the Chargers in targets (10/27.0% share), as he attained a double-digit total for the sixth time during his last seven games. It was also the ninth time that Allen has eclipsed 10+ during his 13 games this season. Allen also led the team in receptions (6) and receiving yards (78) - which was the ninth time that he has eclipsed 75+. He also paced the Chargers in air yards (147), and percentage share of air yards (43.0%).

Only four wide receivers had accrued more targets than Williams from Weeks 1-5, (52), but his 10.2 per game average dropped to 6.0 from Weeks 6-14. However, Williams has now accrued 15 targets, nine receptions, 110 receiving yards, and 123 air yards during his last two games.

That includes his results from Week 14 after he had appeared primed to join Allen on the sideline for that matchup with the Giants. The five-year veteran had been placed on the reserve/COVID list five days before the opening kickoff. However, he captured all six of his targets and assembled 61 yards.

Williams also accumulated nine targets in Week 15 (24.3% share), which was his highest weekly total since Week 5. He only caught three of those targets that were distributed by Herbert while he also assembled 49 receiving yards.

Palmer’s usage diminished in Week 15 after the promising rookie had performed on a career-high 87% of the Chargers’ offensive snaps when Allen was unavailable in Week 14. Palmer had paced the team with a season-high seven targets (23% share) in Week 14, while he also established season-bests in receptions (5), and receiving yards (66).

Third-year receiver Jalen Guyton had attained a 59% snap share during that same Week 14 matchup while he also captured all three of his targets (10% share), assembled a team-best 87 yards, and also led Los Angeles in air yards (74). Guyton and Palmer also scored touchdowns during the matchup.

However, they were relegated to a combined three targets, three receptions, and 25 yards versus the Chiefs. Neither receiver is a viable option during the postseason. However, Allen remains an unquestioned WR1, while Williams resides on the WR2/WR3 periphery.

2. Several factors have transformed the landscape within Tampa Bay’s talented wide receiving arsenal entering Week 16. That includes the conclusion of Antonio Brown's three-game suspension for violation of the NFL-NFLPA COVID-19 protocols. It had been unclear whether the Buccaneers would welcome him back or ultimately release him prior to Tampa Bay’s NFC South showdown with New Orleans in Week 15. However, anyone who has Chris Godwin contained on their rosters is painfully aware that the team was presented with massive incentive to infuse Brown into their aerial attack. Now, he will return to the Buccaneers' lineup for their matchup with Carolina on Sunday. 

Tom Brady connects with Antonio Brown again#GoBucs are rollin’ the Dolphins#NFL

pic.twitter.com/0B6xwuB6Vi

— Chris Henrique (@ChrisHenrique) October 10, 2021

Brown had previously been sidelined in Week 3 due to placement on the reserve/COVID list and was later contending with an ankle issue prior to his suspension. He did perform in five games from Weeks 1-6 and led Tampa Bay in target share (20.4%), and targets per game during that span (8.4). Brown also averaged 5.8 receptions and 83.6 yards per game during those contests.

At that point, the aforementioned ankle issue opened a runway for Godwin and Mike Evans to confiscate a larger share of passes being distributed by Tom Brady, and Godwin had flourished as the result of his expanded opportunity. Godwin’s target share rose from 17.6% in Weeks 1-6 to 25.4% during Brown’s most recent absence (Weeks 7-14) while his per-game averages expanded from 7.7 targets, 5.7 receptions, and 68.2 yards to 10.6 targets/8.3 receptions/92.1 per game.

The fifth-year receiver was also was second overall in receptions (58), and third in both targets (74), and receiving yards (645). He was also tied for fifth with nine receptions of 20+ yards and exceeded 100 yards in four of his seven matchups - which was second only to Cooper Kupp during that span. Godwin also led the Buccaneers in red zone targets (13) and yards after catch (367) during those contests.

Godwin’s usage and output without Brown in the lineup also propelled him to ninth overall with 120 targets (9.2 per game) from Weeks 1-14. He was also second in receptions (92/7.1 per game) and fifth in receiving yards (1,054/81/1 per game). He had also captured six of his seven targets and generated a team-high 49 receiving yards before a torn ACL forced his departure from Tampa Bay's Week 15 matchup with the Saints. Godwin will not return this season, which is highly unfortunate for him, the Buccaneers, and fantasy managers.

Evans produced 14 yards with his only reception against the Saints before the eight-year veteran sustained a hamstring strain. He could resurface for Sunday’s matchup in Carolina and will commandeer a massive role whenever he does return.

Mike Evans goes up to make the tough catch in traffic ? #GoBucs

?: #NOvsTB on NBC
?: https://t.co/Oqb90AsSAM pic.twitter.com/vZYLaVL4hr

— NFL (@NFL) December 20, 2021

Evans had attained an 18.8% target share from Weeks 1-6 while averaging 8.2 targets. 5.2 receptions, 70 receiving yards, and 118.7 air yards per game. However, Evans did experience a decline in each category from Weeks 7-14 (7.1 targets/4.6 receptions/66.4 yards/80.7 air yards per game).

Brown led the Buccaneers in yards per target from Weeks 1-6 (9.0), while Evans and Godwin were tied at 8.0. Brown also led the trio in yards per reception (14), followed by Evans (13.0), and Godwin (12.0). However, Evans led in aDOT (14.4), followed by Brown (13.3), and Godwin (7.9), and  Evans also led the Buccaneers in percentage share of air yards (30.9%), followed by Brown (29.0%), and Godwin (17.4%).

Brown is positioned to regain a significant role for Sunday's matchup with the Panthers, while the status of Evans should be monitored as the Buccaneer’s Week 16 kickoff approaches. Tyler Johnson becomes an intriguing addition from the waiver wire if Evans is unavailable.

3. Fantasy managers have contended with an unrelenting collection of challenges that have continued into the postseason. However, several wide receivers have experienced a recent surge in their usage, which has also fueled a rise in their output. This applies to Gabriel Davis, who has emerged as a viable WR3 option for fantasy managers following his performances in Weeks 14-15.    

We love a fourth down touchdown. #BillsMafia

?: @NFLonFOX pic.twitter.com/Yk7XtmJz1e

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 19, 2021

Davis was the 17th wide receiver to be selected during the 2020 NFL Draft (128th overall) and played on 73% of the Bills’ offensive snaps as a rookie. He finished third on the team in targets (62/3.9 per game)), receptions (35/2.2 per game), and receiving yards (599/37.4 per game), and was second on the team in air yards (945), percentage share of air yards (18.9%), red zone targets (10), and receiving touchdowns (7).

However, Buffalo signed Emmanuel Sanders to a one-year deal last March, which placed an obstacle in Davis’ path toward statistical growth during his second season. After attaining a 51% share during the season opener, Davis performed on just 35.5% of Buffalo’s snaps from Weeks 2-13 while Sanders garnered a 76.5% share.

Davis also averaged just 2.4 targets 1.5 receptions and 27.5 yards per game, while Sanders was averaging 5.4 targets, 3.2 receptions, and 48 yards per game during that span. Davis was also fourth behind Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Sanders in targets (31/7.2% share), 19 receptions (19), receiving yards (342), air yards (415), and percentage share of air (11%) from Weeks 1-13.

However, Sanders encountered a knee issue that limited him to 25 snaps in Week 14, while also forcing his absence in Week 15. This elevated Davis into an expanded role and the second-year receiver has responded by performing impressively. Davis’ snap share rose to 86.5%, while he has also collected 15 targets during those two matchups. Davis established season-highs in targets (8), and receptions (5) and generated a touchdown when Buffalo traveled to Tampa Bay in Week 14, and also captured seven targets when the Bills hosted Carolina in Week 15.

Davis collected five of those passes that were distributed by Josh Allen and generated a team-high 85 yards. He also produced two touchdowns, which was the first multiple touchdown game of his career. Davis also led the Bills in yards per route run (2.43) according to PFF. Davis’ target share has also risen to 18.3% during that two-game sequence, while he leads the Bills in receiving yards (128), red zone targets (4), and receiving touchdowns (3). He is also second to Diggs in air yards (178), percentage share of air yards (29.9%)

It is currently unclear whether the 34-year old Sanders will resurface for Buffalo’s critical matchup with New England on Sunday. However, It is difficult to envision Davis being relegated to minimal usage following his two most recent performances. Cole Beasley's placement on the reserve/COVID list should also ensure that Davis remains highly involved in the Bills' aerial efforts. He can function as a high-end WR3 if he remains available on your waiver wire.

4. Brandin Cooks had only averaged 4.6 targets, 2.7 receptions, and 33.7 yards per game from Weeks 11-13. However, he commandeered a 26.9% target share during his last two outings, while thriving with Davis Mills under center in Weeks 14-15. Cooks is now primed to exceed his previous career highs in targets and receptions and can also eclipse 1,000 yards for the sixth time in his career - depending upon the timing of his return from the reserve/COVID list. 

.@brandincooks turns on the jets for his 2nd TD! #WeAreTexans

?: #HOUvsJAX on CBS
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/caGRfYmA9Z

— NFL (@NFL) December 19, 2021

His targets per game average improved considerably (10.5), while his 21 targets tie him for sixth overall during that two-game span. He is also third in receiving yardage (203/101.5 per game), seventh in receptions (15/7.5 per game), fourth in touchdowns (2), and has soared to the league lead in yards after catch during that sequence (153). Cooks is also 20th in air yards (167), and percentage share of air yards (35.2%).

Cook’s recent statistical surge with Mills spearheading the Texan’s aerial efforts also elevated him to 11th overall in targets from Weeks 1-15 (119/8.5 per game). He is also 11th in receptions (80/5.7 per game), 13th in air yards (1,259) fifth in percentage share of air yards (41.1%).and 14th in yards before catch (613).

Mills had operated as the Texans’ starting signal-caller from Weeks 3-8, as Cooks garnered a 27.2% target share, and averaged 8.2 targets, 6.2 receptions, and 72.5 yards per game. Mills was also averaging 31.8 attempts, 22 completions, and 209 yards per game during that span. His touchdown to interception ratio was just 6:7, and 32-year old Tyrod Taylor was inserted under center from Weeks 9-13.

However, Cooks' averages dropped to 7.0 targets, 3.5 receptions, and only 39.3 yards per game with Taylor guiding the offense and declined even further from Weeks 11-13 (4.7 targets/2.7 receptions/33.7 yards per game). Taylor only completed 55% of his passes, manufactured two touchdowns, and tossed five interceptions during that sequence.

Mills then reemerged under center and is currently fifth among all quarterbacks in passing yards since Week 14 (540/270 per game). He is also fifth in attempts (79/39.5 per game) sixth in completions (52/26 per game), has attained a 65.8% completion percentage, and has constructed a 3:1 touchdown to interception ratio.

Cooks remains completely unchallenged as Houston’s primary receiving weapon as Nico Collins is the only other Texan to attain a double-digit target during the team’s last two outings (14/7 per game/18.0% share). The rookie is also second in receptions (7/3.5 per game), receiving yards (83/41.5 per game), air yards (120), and percentage share of air yards (25,3%) during that span, while Collins is also second in multiple categories from Weeks 1-15 (44 targets/per game), (311 receiving yards/28.3 per game), (426 air yards).

Cook’s two-game statistical reemergence should have restored any waning confidence from fantasy managers. He will reside on the WR2/WR3 periphery when Houston hosts the Chargers on Sunday if he can return to the lineup. Otherwise, the sudden uncertainty surrounding Cooks' status provides Collins with an opportunity to function as the Texans' WR1. If that scenario transpires, Collins becomes a low-end WR3 for anyone who is desperately searching for options.

5. This section has primarily contained wide receivers whose usage and production in Week 15 became beneficial to fantasy managers. These receivers have also emerged as viable point producers, who could remain valuable resources during the fantasy playoffs. Unfortunately, not every wide receiver performed proficiently in Week 15. This resulted in disappointing outcomes for anyone who had been depending on their production during critical postseason matchups.

That list includes Odell Beckham, Jr., who was averaging 5.7 targets, but just 2.8 receptions and 38.7 yards per game during his final six games as a Brown. He was then limited to 15 snaps, three targets, and 18 receiving yards during his Week 10 debut with the Rams. However, his target share rose to 20.8% in Weeks 12-14, as he accumulated 22 targets (7.3 per game), 13 receptions (4.3 per game), 186 receiving yards (62 per game), and 271 air yards - while generating a touchdown during each outing. His yards per target also expanded from 6.0 to 8.0 during that three-game sequence.

Third TD in as many games for OBJ ?

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/tkZMb3bs62

— ESPN (@espn) December 14, 2021

However, Beckham could not sustain his recent statistical success when the Rams hosted Seattle, and his minuscule numbers were added to the assortment of unwanted developments that fantasy managers were forced to endure in Week 15.

Beckham was restricted to just three targets, managed only one reception, and was limited to an anemic seven yards. Matthew Stafford had been averaging 36 attempts per game from Weeks 1-14, but only launched 29 passes against the Seahawks. Cooper Kupp unsurprisingly led Los Angeles with 13 targets, while rookie Ben Skowronek was targeted five times. Van Jefferson joined Beckham in being relegated to three targets, while he collected two of those passes, and assembled his lowest yardage total since Week 6 (23).

Beckham was not alone in delivering discouraging results. Chase Claypool was also limited to a season-low two targets when Pittsburgh hosted Tennessee, even though he performed on 63% of the Steeler’s offensive snaps. Claypool also registered his lowest yardage total of the season (12). His performance took place just one week after he finished at WR17 while collecting eight of his nine targets, and accruing 93 yards.

Brandon Aiyuk had entered Week 15 averaging 6.8 targets, 4.7 receptions, and 68 yards per game during his previous six matchups. However, he was relegated to just two targets when San Francisco hosted Atlanta. That was his second-lowest total of the season, while he was also limited to just one catch – despite attaining a 98% snap share.

Jerry Jeudy had averaged 6.4 targets, 4.6 receptions, and 53.2 yards per game from Weeks 9-14. He was involved on 69% of Denver’s snaps when the Broncos hosted Cincinnati in Week 15 and received four targets. However, Jeudy finished the matchup without a reception, as Teddy Bridgewater (concussion) was injured and replaced by Drew Lock. Denver's transition to Lock is not a favorable development for Jeudy, and he should not be in your lineups this week.

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