RADIO
We're talking about fantasy football here, and in fantasy, football volume is the key to rostering and fielding a winning team. While everything boils down to that concept, seeking volume calls for looking deeper than just the name and reputation of players. Put a wide receiver or tight end in a stacked offense (one featuring multiple top-tier pass-catchers and one or two great rushers) and his volume--and thus his fantasy outcome--will drop without question. The opportunities will go down and with them the chances of scoring fantasy points.
With that in mind, it makes sense to pursue WRs/TEs with a clear and very well-defined No. 1 role without other receivers threatening their target share. Even if the players in those offenses are not top-tier options they will get all of the opportunities they can handle, which will ultimately benefit them. Those players might not be that good, but they will compensate for it just on pure volume. And the exact opposite is also true: great pass-catchers can rack up points even on low volume, separating themselves from the pack.
Today, I will explore some offenses that enter the 2020 season with very few high-caliber receivers to throw passes to, making their top options great draft picks for the upcoming year.
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Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
With more than four months past the last Super Bowl, all of the downtime brought by the COVID pandemic, and how deep into the offseason we are already, it is hard to come up with new narratives at this point. You already know how Green Bay dealt with its lacks of offensive weapons: they did nothing. Is that good for the Packers? Not sure. Is that good for fantasy GMs? Sure thing! If you can get any shares of WR Davante Adams, consider yourself a winner.
For another year, Adams profiles as the clear go-to guy in Green Bay's attack. Aaron Jones is a great running back and will get plenty of chances, sure, but Adams has zero competition among pass-catchers. PFF projects Adams to finish 2020 with 161 targets (second-most only behind Michael Thomas) and the highest target share (32.9%) among Packers players (all positions considered).
Not only is Adams a stud all by himself, but he's also in a position to really fulfill all of the expectations has he will be able to pair talent with volume. Green Bay's WR2 (Allen Lazard) is expected to not even reach 70 targets, the team has lost TE Jimmy Graham, and the next receiver in line is "rookie" Jace Sternberger who most probably won't be used too often as to become a threat. Don't be afraid to pay a first-round pick for Adams, as he very well deserves it.
Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
You can get an argument around the idea of the Chargers having a loaded offense far from "slim". Mike Williams and Hunter Henry are two very capable receivers and it doesn't get much better than Austin Ekeler at the running back position when it comes to pass-catching tailbacks. That being said, though, Keenan Allen should be once more the clear go-to guy on offense for Los Angeles.
Allen has the fifth-highest different in target share between a WR1 (he's projected to get 123 targets and 28.2% of all Chargers targets) and a WR2 (in this case Mike Williams at 85 and 20%) in all NFL teams. The thing to keep in mind when assessing the chargers is the fact they have many options, but only one top-tier player in their offense. All of Ekeler, Williams, and Henry will be battling for targets between themselves to become the no. 2 targets on passing-plays. There is no doubt Keenan Allen will retain the no. 1 role.
Allen's projected 123 targets rank 11th among WRs league-wide and he's got the fourth-highest target share projection (28.2%) among all wide receivers. If Henry falls down injured or Williams becomes too much of a boom/bust player the logical thing would be for QB Tyrod Taylor to go the safe route and feed Allen even more. And the best of all is that Allen's ADP is currently sitting on the fifth round of 12-team leagues. Steal at that price.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins
Washington's offense presents a very interesting case study related to drafting wide receivers. If you look at raw, counting stat projections you probably won't like McLaurin's upside: PFF has him at 102 targets in 2020 good for just the 27th-most between TEs and WRs.
If you go a step deeper, you'd find out that while that number might be a little low for a WR1, he would still get 23.3% of all Redskins targets. Finally, if you dig even deeper, you get the true value of McLaurin: the sophomore's target share (23.3%) is expected to be 7.0% higher than Washington's WR2 target share (Steve Sims, 16%).
That gap between WR1 and WR2 is expected to be the eight-highest in the NFL next season, making McLaurin a sure play in fantasy leagues as the clear go-to weapon of Washington's offense. Neither Smith nor WR3 Antonio Gibson project to reach 72 targets on the year and the Redskins have no pass-catching running backs with potential to become a threat to the passing game and McLaurin's targets.
This is one of those cases when we face a bad team, a bad quarterback, and a middling group of rushers/receivers that make us feel uncomfortable drafting them for our teams. Fear nothing with McLaurin, though. He might not be surrounded by the best players, but that will also boost his fantasy upside if only because of the volume he'll get and the distance between his abilities and those of his teammates.
Allen Robinson II, Chicago Bears
While we can't expect Robinson to reach 150+ targets for the second consecutive year (PFF projects him to 125), he's still the clear no. 1 option of Chicago's attack entering 2020. Looking at last season data, Robinson finished with 254.9 PPR over the year, almost 125 PPR over WR2 Anthony Miller. Both Bears running backs (David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen) finished with more fantasy points than Miller.
If everything found in the PFF projections holds true, Robinson would finish the year getting 27.8% of all Chicago's targets, which would be the sixth-highest share among all WRs in the league. That's good. What is great, though, is that he'd also be getting 8.9% more targets than the second most-used Chicago Bear (expected to be Anthony Miller) for what would be the fourth-largest difference between WR1 and WR2 in the NFL.
Whether it is Mitchell Trubisky or Nick Foles throwing the ball to Robinson, you can't go wrong drafting the wideout. He's a stud, has proven how valuable he can be no matter where or under who he plays, and his ADP of 43 (at the time of this writing) makes him a very valuable player with upside to break the 200-PPR mark in 2020.
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