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What's up RotoBallers. Below you will find our Wild Card Saturday NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Ben Ruppert breaks down the first half of the Wild Card matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchups analysis by Pierre Camus (@pfunk00).
Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.
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Raiders @ Texans - Saturday 1/7 @ 4:35 PM ET
Matchups We Love
Lamar Miller (RB, HOU)
After missing the past two weeks recovering from an ankle injury, Lamar Miller feels ‘fresh’ and ready to go against the Raiders. In his first season in the black and red he played 14 games, averaging 4.0 YPC and just squeaked over the 1,000-yard mark. Expect Miller to receive a full workload against Oakland, who has given up the sixth highest YPC in the league this season (4.5) and the sixth most rushing touchdowns (18). In Week 17, even Devontae Booker had a good game against them, gaining 109 all-purpose yards with two touchdowns. Miller has looked good when healthy this season despite a lack of scores, so expect him to rip off big gains against a soft run defense.
C.J. Fiedorowicz (TE, HOU)
Texans fans clamored when Brock Osweiler was replaced by Tom Savage in Week 15. Now with their playoff lives on the line and Savage in concussion protocol, Houston will give the ball back to Osweiler. The passing offense looked inept for most of the season with Osweiler under center, but one thing he loves to do is throw to his tight ends. Fiedorowicz set career-high’s across the board this season, and has been a serviceable fantasy TE option since Week 4. He finished the season second on the team in receptions and third in yards. Oakland has given up the eighth most fantasy points to the TE position this season, and since it is the only position Osweiler can properly throw to, Fiedorowicz should be a good option this week.
Amari Cooper (WR, OAK)
The loss of Derek Carr is a serious blow to the Raiders playoff hopes, with Matt McGloin and Connor Cook not inspiring much hope last week. McGloin is now dealing with a shoulder injury, meaning the rookie Cook will make his first NFL start in the playoffs. Last week Cooper was on his way to another quiet outing, before he scored a spectacular touchdown where he fought off Chris Harris to make the catch, then reached for the pylon, while tip-toeing along the sidelines. Cooper has surpassed 60 yards only once in the past eight weeks, but his skill level is clearly ahead of his time. Cooper has said he will “demand the ball” on Saturday, as he should, given he is already among the top big-play threats in the league. Cooper will need to do all he can to help Cook and the Raiders advance to the divisional round.
Matchups We Hate
Latavius Murray (RB, OAK)
Latavius Murray has had a bit of an odd season in Oakland. When the season began he was in a timeshare with DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard. After an injury he became the workhorse back, only to lose touches to Washington and Richard again later in the season. After last week’s game, head coach Jack Del Rio implied Murray wasn’t getting enough work. Well, make up your mind! Regardless of who gets the bulk of the carries, Houston has done a good job at limiting the run this season. They have given up the 12th fewest rushing yards this season, and have only allowed two rushing scores since their Week 9 Bye. The constant losing of carries mixed with a stingy opponent make Murray a big risk heading into Saturday.
Notable Players
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, HOU)
Last week Hopkins had a rare big game with Osweiler under center. He caught seven of a team-high 11 targets for 123 yards, his highest mark of the season. It was only his second 100-yard game, ending with a disappointing 954 yards on the year. Osweiler certainly hindered Hopkins more than he helped him this season, but there may be a glimmer of hope for the duo after last week’s performance. Houston needs a big game from its best playmaker if they’re going to stand a chance. Hopkins has a great chance for a big game if his quarterback can be accurate enough for one week.
Michael Crabtree (WR, OAK)
Connor Cook starting at quarterback hinders the entire offense, mainly Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Houston will likely stack the box and let Cook try to beat them like Denver did last week, meaning there’s going to be plenty of opportunities for Crabtree to get open facing one-on-one coverage. If Cook can just give then some average quarterback play, Cooper and Crabtree still have a chance to produce. Unfortunately, we have no idea how the pressure of the playoffs will affect Cook, leaving the wide receiver duo as shaky options. Crabtree is also dealing with a minor ankle injury, which hampered him a bit last week. It’s anyone’s guess how the Raiders offense will look this week.
Lions @ Seahawks - Saturday 1/7 @ 8:15 PM ET
Matchups We Love
Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA)
After an injury riddled 2015, Jimmy Graham has had a nice bounce-back season for the Seahawks. He ended the year with 65 receptions for 923 yards and six touchdowns. The yards were his most since 2013, and his 14.2 YPR was the highest mark of his career. No matter who won between Green Gay and Detroit, Graham was going to have a great matchup this week. The Lions allowed the fifth most receptions and the third most touchdowns in the league to the TE position this season. Expect Graham to be utilized heavily at home this week; all six of his touchdowns have come in home games.
Golden Tate (WR, DET)
The Legion of Boom has been dominant for several seasons now, especially when playing at home. However, lately they have been showing some chinks in the armor. Over the past few weeks J.J. Nelson, Davante Adams, and Mike Evans all dominated Seattle's secondary, each going over 100 yards with a touchdown. After a slow start Tate has been the Lions top option in the passing game, posting his second 1,000-yard season in the past three years. He ended the season with five straight games of at least six receptions, and went over 100 yards twice over that span with a floor of 58 yards. Matthew Stafford will undoubtedly need to throw to keep up with the Seattle offense, making Tate a fine fantasy option at wide receiver, at least for one week.
Matchups We Hate
Thomas Rawls (RB, SEA)
We’ve seen the good and bad sides of Thomas Rawls since his return to the Seattle backfield. From Weeks 11-to-14 he averaged 5.1 YPC, and went for over 100 yards against the Panthers. Then from Weeks 15-to-17 (three games against divisional opponents) he averaged 1.5 YPC while ceding work to the likes of Alex Collins. We will see this week if his declining play was the fault of his opponent or some lingering injury, but this matchup with Detroit won’t be an easy one. They have given up the 10th fewest amount of fantasy points to the running back position, and have allowed the second fewest rushing touchdowns in the league. Rawls is going to need to be a completely different back than he has been if he wants to find any success.
Zach Zenner (RB, DET)
The loss of Theo Riddick hasn’t been easy for the Lions to endure, but over the past two weeks Zach Zenner has looked like a viable option for them. Against the Cowboys and Packers, Zenner ran for a combined 4.25 YPC and scored three touchdowns on the ground. He is obviously not as good in the receiving game as Riddick, but he did catch four passes for 41 yards last week. However, he will face one of the toughest run defenses in the league this week; the Seahawks in Seattle. The Seahawks gave up a league-low 3.4 YPC this season, and gave up the seventh fewest rushing yards. Stafford has a better chance of throwing to find success over handing it off to Zenner, making him a player to avoid in all leagues.
Notable Players
Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA)
Baldwin set career highs this season with 94 receptions for 1,128 yards. He scored seven touchdowns, though no one expected him to top last year’s total of 14. Baldwin saw an average of 10 targets per game over the final four weeks, including last week when he only received four because the starters got pulled from the game early. The Lions have defended opposing WR1 well this season, limiting Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, and Odell Beckham to 70 yards or less over the final three weeks of the season. However, they have given up the second most receiving touchdowns in the league this season, leaving the door open for Baldwin to have a productive week.
Check out RotoBaller's famous fantasy football draft sleepers and waiver wire pickups list, updated regularly!
