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The "Bell-Cow Back" archetype is slowly fading out of fantasy football. With more and more NFL teams employing committees in their backfields, the true workhorses become increasingly valuable to fantasy managers.
The Seattle Seahawks spent the end of last season observing Rashaad Penny have the best stretch of games of his career to this point. This came after the previous starter, Chris Carson, suffered a career-ending neck injury earlier in the season. Now, however, rookie Kenneth Walker III is joining the mix. Walker, a second-round pick out of Michigan State, will vie for touches with Penny as each aims to take command of the backfield.
Will either succeed and become the team's clear number one tailback, or will they spend the season splitting touches with each other? First, we must take a look at both players before we can reach a conclusion.
Rashaad Penny Fantasy Football Outlook
Rashaad Penny finished his 2021 campaign on an absolute tear. The San Diego State product was the RB1 over the final five weeks of the season, averaging 22.0 PPR points per game. Over that span, he averaged 18.4 carries for 134.2 yards (7.29 yards per carry) and 1.2 touchdowns. He finished as a top-4 RB in three of these five weeks, and in one other he was the RB9.
RASHAAD PENNY CANNOT BE STOPPED. 62-YARD TD. #Seahawks
?: #SEAvsAZ on FOX
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/VorOzU8W98— NFL (@NFL) January 10, 2022
This performance earned Penny a one-year, $5.75 million contract extension in the offseason. He had finally displayed the potential that led the Seahawks to draft him in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. With that said, the efficiency he displayed in 2021 wasn't really an outlier; his 6.3 YPC last season was nearly matched by his mark of 5.7 in 2019.
Nonetheless, despite this showing, questions abound for Penny. He has missed at least six games in three of his four seasons in the league, including seven missed games last season and 13 in 2020. He will need to stay healthy in order to return value to fantasy managers. We've seen that he can be a great runner, but he can only make use of those talents when available.
Another big question mark for Penny is his proficiency (or lack thereof) in the passing game. In 37 career games, he has caught just 23 passes. This lack of versatility will hurt him in his quest to become a bell-cow for Seattle. With newly-anointed starting QB Geno Smith unlikely to be a big vertical passing threat, the Seahawks will likely target their backs in short routes more often. Penny may be incapable of being effective in that role.
On the bright side, the Seahawks' likely limitations in the passing game should result in more work for Penny as the team tries to establish a presence on the ground. On the other hand, the team is likely to be in situations where they need to pass frequently in order to be competitive. Seattle has an over/under win total of merely 5.5 wins at DraftKings Sportsbook, higher than only those of the Falcons and Texans.
In all, Penny has some great potential as a fantasy option in 2022. His rushing efficiency is among the best in the league; he was second in the NFL with 3.83 yards created per touch last season, and his breakaway run rate was first. Nonetheless, concerns surrounding his availability and lack of receiving ability prevent him from being a top-tier fantasy option. Additionally, he will need to compete with the other half of Seattle's duo in the backfield to get touches.
Kenneth Walker III Fantasy Football Outlook
Kenneth Walker III was taken by Seattle in the second round of this April's draft. In his junior campaign last season at Michigan State, Walker carried the ball 263 times for 1,636 yards and 18 touchdowns in just 12 games. After averaging 4.9 yards per carry as a sophomore with Wake Forest, his average jumped to 6.2 with the Spartans last season. His college dominator percentage of 50.2% was at the 99th percentile for running backs.
71.5% of Kenneth Walker's yards were after contact in 2021...
Highest percentage by a Big 10 RB since 2017 (min 200 carries)pic.twitter.com/lEUgvs9Lnx
— PFF College (@PFF_College) April 23, 2022
Now consider his physical attributes. At 5'9" and 211 pounds, Walker has a physical frame that gives him the capability to power through defenders when necessary. Not only that, but he also ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, good enough for a 96th percentile speed score. This athleticism, coupled with his production that had him at the edge of the Heisman conversation, makes clear why the Seahawks felt compelled to select him this offseason.
Walker does have some shortcomings as a prospect though, which is why he was not taken even higher. One key negative to his game is his lack of use as a receiver. In 32 games as a college player, Walker caught just 19 passes. Moreover, his college target share of 5.4 percent is at just the 33rd percentile for RBs. This is a clear facet of Walker's game that needs improvement.
Another thing to consider with Walker is his currently uncertain injury status. In August, the rookie had a procedure done that was likely to treat a hernia-like condition. Despite the initial reporting suggesting the team was optimistic about his availability for the season opener, the tone seems to have become less confident as of late. The latest update from head coach Pete Carroll was that "it's just going to be one day at a time" and it "is really uncharted territory for him" and for the team as well. This is a situation to monitor as the season approaches.
It is also important to note that any game script issues that exist for Penny will also exist for Walker. If Seattle is trailing by multiple possessions in a given game, they aren't likely to run with either of the two. Walker's absence at a critical time in camp may also harm his ability to adapt quickly early on in the season.
In sum, Walker is among the strongest rookie RB prospects in this year's draft class. As a runner, he displays great potential, and he showed his capacity to be a workhorse last season after being utilized less at Wake Forest. On the other hand, to this point, he has not demonstrated the receiving ability necessary to be a top fantasy option, although he is just 21 years old with plenty of room for growth. His hazy recovery from a hernia also dampens the enthusiasm for Walker heading into 2022.
2022 Fantasy Football Outlook for Penny and Walker
The Seahawks will have key decisions to make with how they balance their top-two backs. Penny has shown that he has workhorse potential in the NFL already with his absurd stretch last season, but Walker possesses all of the traits that teams look for to fill that role as well. In the end, the fact that both are solid may be their undoing fantasy-wise, as the Seahawks would likely split their carries to keep them both fresh.
It's also important to ponder whom the Seahawks may use as their primary pass catcher out of the backfield. Neither Penny nor Walker are inspiring in this area, and the team's other options (DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer) don't seem likely to usurp too many touches from these two. If either Penny or Walker can show improvement in the passing game, that will give them a major leg up in their efforts to take command of the backfield.
Injuries will also play a large role in determining if either Penny or Walker will become a bell-cow back. Penny has a history of missing substantial time, and Walker is currently dealing with some issues of his own. A plausible scenario is that one of the two is out for a few games, and the other never relinquishes his grip on the starting job.
In all, it seems most likely that both Penny and Walker will frustrate fantasy managers in 2022 by preventing each other from becoming bell cows. If, however, one does turn into a workhorse, I'd give a slight edge to Penny to make it happen. Unlike Walker, he has already shown that he can be a strong runner at the NFL level. Penny's one-year deal may also incentivize the coaching staff to give him more volume before he potentially leaves the team next offseason.
The situation could certainly go in many directions though. This is one of the most intriguing backfields to watch in 2022, and both Penny and Walker are valuable assets for fantasy teams.
Shout out to playerprofiler.com and profootballreference.com, as their stats were invaluable in the writing of this article.
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