Willy Adames (SS, TB) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleeper

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~260

CURRENT ADP: ~325 overall

ANALYSIS: Willy Adames is coming off his first full season as the starting shortstop for the Tampa Bay Rays. The once-heralded prospect started to shine with a stat line of .254-20-69-52-4. The 20 home runs were a career-high and also came with a career-high ISO of .164. Adames's improved power goes hand in hand with his improved quality of contact. His barrel rate increased by 1.8% to 8.4%, while his hard-hit rate also improved from 29.6% to 35.5%. Adames also lowered his GB rate from 52% to 47.4%. The drop in ground balls resulted in more fly balls and line drives, and he took advantage of that with a nice 22.4% HR/oFB.

The biggest surprise last season was his drop in his batting average. Adames' .254 average last season was his lowest batting average since Rookie ball in 2013. The low average coincided with his lowest BABIP since 2013 as well. Usually, a high ground-ball rate leads to a higher BABIP, so the drop in ground ball rate may correlate properly. On the flip side, the increased power and harder contact may start leading to more extra-base hits and better batting average if he finds some outfield gaps.

Heading into the 2020 draft season, we can look for Adames to continue to improve at the plate. The HH and barrel rates should continue to rise. If the BABIP returns to normal, then the average will go up as well, which should lead to more counting stats. Prior to the last two seasons, Adames was also a double-digit stolen base threat in the minors. Adames brings a 20+ home run and 10+ steal-upside with a .270+ average. He is currently the 27th shortstop off the board at pick 325.