RADIO
As we enter Week 11, injuries and changes in coaching tendencies continue to affect the CB Matchup Chart. Trends within recent weeks are becoming just as important to understand as the full-season data.
For example, Panthers CB Donte Jackson has been dealing with a foot injury, and it has adversely affected his performance. Justin Coleman is now healthy for the Lions, which makes opposing slots less appealing fantasy plays. In Denver, the Broncos' coaching staff has been shuffling around their CB group, most recently switching Bryce Callahan to RCB from the slot, and putting overmatched rookie Michael Ojemudia on the bench. Opposing offenses would be wise to attack Essang Bassey in the slot as opposed to Callahan, who is playing at an All-Pro level.
Compiling this data and writing this article each week has made it clear that while matchups do matter, a receiver's talent and target share are more important than his opposition in most cases.
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Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first being the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science. The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups, rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups - Week 11
WR/CB Matchups to Target
The Seahawks will take on the Cardinals in a rematch that has a 57.5 total on Thursday night. The last time these two teams met, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and Tyler Lockett had huge games. The data suggests those three could all repeat with big performances in this spot. Seattle's cornerback group is banged up and horrible, while Arizona is fresh off giving up a career game to Bills slot WR Cole Beasley.
Michael Thomas was a huge bust last week against San Francisco and now has to deal with a change at quarterback. Still, his matchup against the Falcons CB group is as good as it gets. I expect Jameis Winston to target him all over the field.
Amari Cooper gets Andy Dalton back for an opportunity against the Vikings' scotch-tape CB group in Minnesota. Mike Zimmer schemed up a masterful gameplan against the Bears last week, but Cooper is in a better offensive situation than Allen Robinson was in Week 10.
Mike Williams has been inconsistent even with the emergence of Justin Herbert. He isn't easy to trust in fantasy, but against Bless Austin and the Jets, he has a chance to have one of his best games of the season.
Speaking of untrustworthy WRs, Marquise Brown has been a fantasy bust so far; however, a look at Baltimore's schedule shows that they've played most of the best CB groups in the league so far this season. Not to mention the weather last week against New England. This week Brown gets the Titans, who just made Michael Pittman Jr. look like a star and haven't been able to stop anyone all year. I'll be the lone voice in the fantasy community to say it - start Hollywood this week.
Chase Claypool has been a monster this year and gets an easy matchup against Jaguars rookie CB C.J. Henderson. There was some discussion about my high rating of Sidney Jones in last week's article. Jones played outstanding against Davante Adams and the Packers last week and has been playing at a high level all year. One of the best things about the chart is that it shows some teams with defined splits between WR1 and WR2. Henderson is much more easily exploitable than Jones, which bodes well for Claypool.
Finally, Greg Ward and Randall Cobb are two slots that have advantageous matchups.
WR/CB Matchups to Avoid
This space has to start with D.K. Metcalf, who has been neutralized a grand total of two times all season. The problem is that one of those times was last week against Jalen Ramsey and the other was against Patrick Peterson, who he'll face on Thursday night. Metcalf is a beast and the game should be a shootout, but this isn't a great spot.
Speaking of Jalen Ramsey, he'll face off with the enigmatic Mike Evans on Monday night. The Rams have arguably the best CB trio in the league and have been terrific at limiting the production of opposing WR groups. Antonio Brown also gets a downgrade against budding star Darious Williams, while Chris Godwin will have to deal with the slot corner giving up the second-least amount of slot fantasy points in Troy Hill. At least one of the Bucs' WRs is bound to produce, but the matchup is as tough as it gets.
Davante Adams was held to less than 70 yards last week and is also banged up. Xavier Rhodes has been a revelation on the elite Colts Defense and most recently shut down A.J. Brown. Adams is arguably the best receiver in football, but this is a tough matchup.
A.J. Brown gets another tough draw in Jimmy Smith and the Ravens Defense in Week 11. Brown's stat line would have looked different if he didn't drop a 70-yard touchdown last week, but this is not the best bounce-back spot.
Rashard Higgins has to deal with Darius Slay, Travis Fulgham has to deal with Denzel Ward, and Michael Pittman Jr. has to deal with Jaire Alexander (if he plays - check injury reports). All three get downgrades.
The Washington Football team CB group has been tremendous at limiting opposing fantasy points even though they've played a schedule rich with good opposing WRs. A.J. Green is easy to ignore, but there are tough fantasy decisions to be made regarding Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd this week.
Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are fresh off a disappointing week against one of the worst pass defenses of all time. This week, they face a Buccaneers Defense that has been good at limiting RWRs and slots all year.
Finally, Curtis Samuel and Zach Pascal are two slots with tough matchups this week. Samuel is a better play due to rushing upside against Detroit's league-worst run defense.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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