RADIO
Welcome to the first ever Conference Championship edition of the WR/CB Matchup Chart. Congratulations to everyone who won their league. If this series helped you this season, shout us out on Twitter @draft32teams. The purpose of this week's article is to help you in playoff fantasy leagues or DFS. Staying on top of news is one way to get an edge, but understanding matchups is also important. Weather is also a factor that affects passing stats more than most fantasy players realize. The good news for this week is that both games will feature nice weather.
Creating the weekly matchup chart has been more challenging than usual this year due to the fact that most teams are moving their WRs around more than they ever have. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week. The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
While matchups do matter and every piece of information can give you an edge, it is important to understand that WR skill level and target share are more predictive than matchup in many cases. Blindly following the chart is not recommended, but it can be useful in making tough lineup decisions between two WRs close in skill level. The chart is best used to understand the context of matchups overall, not predict outcomes.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Conference Championship Games
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
The best matchup in terms of FPPG allowed this season comes in Kansas City, where rookie phenom Ja'Marr Chase will face off with the same defense that just gave up over 50 fantasy points to Bills primary LWR Gabriel Davis. While Mike Hughes has graded out decently this season, the Chiefs have still given up 16 FPPG to opposing LWRs. Chase is in a smash spot.
The second-best matchup for all outside WRs goes to the RWR for Kansas City against Bengals LCB Eli Apple. Tyreek Hill plays all over the formation for the Chiefs and it's likely that Andy Reid will scheme up ways to match him up with Apple as much as possible. Based on the season-long data, Hill has played more LWR, which is why he's listed there on the chart. All Chiefs outside receivers get a bump because of the potential for them to match up with Apple at RWR. I don't mind Demarcus Robinson in large-field DFS tournaments.
Tyler Boyd didn't do much in an easy matchup last week, as Joe Burrow focused on his other top targets instead. There's no reason to think Boyd can't bounce back in an easy spot against L'Jarius Sneed. Sneed is a solid player, but he's given up slot production at an above average rate all year.
The best on-paper matchup upgrade in the 49ers-Rams game is for whoever mans the slot for San Francisco. Normally that's Juaun Jennings, but Deebo Samuel has played more there lately. Jennings and Samuel will split time outside and in the slot but when they're matched up with David Long Jr. inside, it's an exploitable spot. Long Jr. does not have a lot of experience on the inside and hasn't been particularly impressive as a pro.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
Last week was a perfect example of why blindly following CB matchups is not advised. Jalen Ramsey is arguably the best CB in football and still gave up production to Mike Evans simply because the Rams were conceding short routes when they built a lead. By the fourth quarter, Ramsey had given up a lot of catches, but he was still doing his job. This point would have been easier to drive home if Ramsey didn't give up a long touchdown, but that was an example of the other reason it's not smart to only look at the chart. All it takes is one play for a CB to give up a long TD and skew the data in a big way. Over the long run, Ramsey is harder to score fantasy points on, but on any individual slate, there are many reasons a WR can still have a big day in a tough matchup.
This week, the Rams could choose to shadow Deebo Samuel with Ramsey when Samuel is lined up as a WR. If that's the case, I would expect Samuel's receiving production to be harder to come by. The thing about Samuel obviously is that he can produce with limited targets because he gets rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. Still, I wouldn't be opposed to building some lineups with Ramsey shutting down Deebo.
The other option for the Rams is to let Ramsey stick at RCB and just have him erase Brandon Aiyuk. I lean towards using him against Deebo, but I don't know for sure what their plan will be defensively.
On the other side of that game, there are multiple injury situations worth monitoring. Ambry Thomas didn't play last week and participated but was a full participant in practice on Thursday. I believe that puts him on track to start. He's slightly better than Dontae Johnson and Josh Norman, but not to the point where it matters that much. The bottom line is that RWR is where you want to attack San Fran because Emmaneul Moseley has been above average at RCB. Odell Beckham Jr. is in a good spot.
Van Jefferson appears to be questionable after getting in a limited practice on Thursday, and his matchup is already tough against Moseley. If Jefferson can't go, I'd expect to see Cooper Kupp play a bit more outside, while Ben Skowronek plays the slot in three-WR sets. Kupp's matchup simply doesn't matter at this point. He's too good.
Finally, Mike Hilton continues to play well as the slot corner for the Bengals, and his interception last week was one of the plays of the game (using bubbles to lighten the box will always have more risk than coaches realize). Hilton will do his best when Tyreek Hill plays the slot, but he might actually be effective against Byron Pringle, who gets a matchup downgrade.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
Oh, and the Bills really should've forced the Chiefs to field a kickoff with 13 seconds left. Brutal mistake.
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