RADIO
Welcome to the first ever Divisional Round edition of the WR/CB Matchup Chart. Congratulations to everyone who won their league. If this series helped you this season, shout us out on Twitter @draft32teams. The purpose of this week's article is to help you in playoff fantasy leagues or DFS. Staying on top of news is one way to get an edge, but understanding matchups is also important. One factor to consider in the playoffs is that better teams are generally better against the pass. The easiest matchups in the league each week were usually against bad teams who didn't make the playoffs. Conversely, the playoffs also features some of the best passing attacks in the league. There may not be as many smash spots due to solid DB groups, but playoff offenses got there for a reason also. Keeping track of implied totals and player props is just as important as understanding matchups in DFS and playoff fantasy.
Creating the weekly matchup chart has been more challenging than usual this year due to the fact that most teams are moving their WRs around more than they ever have. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week. The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
While matchups do matter and every piece of information can give you an edge, it is important to understand that WR skill level and target share are more predictive than matchup in many cases. Blindly following the chart is not recommended, but it can be useful in making tough lineup decisions between two WRs close in skill level. The chart is best used to understand the context of matchups overall, not predict outcomes.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Divisional
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
Davante Adams is probably the best WR in the NFL and the Packers are set up for a deep playoff run. Based on season-long stats, Adams' matchup against the 49ers is a very favorable one, but keep in mind that San Francisco's starting RCB Emmanuel Moseley did miss a handful of games. Moseley has had a good year and isn't a pushover. However, Adams moves all around the formation and has torched better corners than Moseley.
Ambry Thomas has played exclusively LCB for the Niners and his results have been mixed. While he's made some plays, he's also been victimized quite a bit. It's good news for Allen Lazard, who like Adams moves around the formation. Overall, I expect Aaron Rodgers to be very productive so a ceiling game from one or two Green Bay WRs is quite possible.
On the other side of that game, the Packers will get back shutdown corner Jaire Alexander. Alexander can be deployed as a shadow, and it's possible he follows Deebo Samuel around the formation. Samuel has been so dynamic as a runner that Alexander shadowing him would only present a slight downgrade to his overall fantasy prospects. I don't expect Alexander to shadow Brandon Aiyuk, but it would make some sense to take him out one-on-one while more defenders can focus on Deebo. In any event, the Packers funnel WR production away from the slot so both Aiyuk and Deebo are in fairly neutral spots. Besides the matchup, Jimmy Garoppolo's health is probably a more important concern when deciding which 49ers WR to play.
The easiest matchups of the week come in Tennessee, where both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are in absolute smash spots. I expect Kristian Fulton to focus on old teammate Ja'Marr Chase while Higgins and Boyd feast on Jackrabbit Jenkins and Elijah Molden.
On the other side of that game, Julio Jones will get the exploitable Eli Apple while A.J. Brown has to deal with the formidable Chidobe Awuzie. Jones is a sneaky play as Ryan Tannehill's clear-cut second option.
The Chiefs pass defense has been terrific lately, in large part due to strong play from their CBs. They are most susceptible to LWRs, which is where Gabriel Davis plays most for the Bills. Keep in mind that Stefon Diggs does move around a lot and will see his fair share of snaps from the left side as well. Davis gets the slight matchup upgrade.
Finally, keep an eye out for news regarding Tampa Bay's nickel corner situation. Sean Murphy-Bunting didn't play last week and is questionable for this week's matchup against the Rams. Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis are solid corners, but the Bucs have been susceptible to slot production. That's where Cooper Kupp does a lot of his damage. Without SMB, Kupp has an even higher chance to go off.
WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
At this point in the season, there aren't many completely lopsided matchups. Most teams still standing have above-average WRs and potent passing attacks, which means matchups matter even less. I'll keep this short and sweet, as I do not recommend fading any of the top WR options this weekend.
The Bills and Packers have been terrific against slots all year. It makes Byron Pringle, Mecole Hardman, and Jauan Jennings less attractive punt plays.
Jalen Ramsey will likely focus on Mike Evans and has already limited him once this year. It's not the best spot for Evans, but he has target share and red zone prowess in his favor always.
Jaire Alexander's deployment will influence one of Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk, likely in a negative way. However, we can't be certain what assignment they'll give him so stay tuned for news or build lineups that account for him shadowing either.
Finally, the Bucs outside CBs have been really good. Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson get downgrades, but are obviously still viable on a short slate.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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