RADIO
It's Championship Week! Congratulations to everyone who advanced to their fantasy Super Bowl. Hopefully, this article can help you make decisions that lead to a championship victory. When setting your lineups, make sure to factor in weather in addition to the matchup. For example, the forecast for Sunday in Green Bay calls for sub-10-degree temperatures. You likely aren't sitting Davante Adams or Justin Jefferson, but frigid conditions might make fringe WRs in that game less appealing plays.
Creating the weekly matchup chart has been more challenging than usual this year due to the fact that most teams are moving their WRs around more than they ever have. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week. The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.
While matchups do matter and every piece of information can give you an edge, it is important to understand that WR skill level and target share are more predictive than matchup in many cases. Blindly following the chart is not recommended, but it can be useful in making tough lineup decisions between two WRs close in skill level. The chart is best used to understand the context of matchups overall, not predict outcomes.
WR vs. CB Chart Details
The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.
The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.
The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.
Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 17
Click image for full-screen view
WR/CB Matchups to Target
Amari Cooper got the squeaky wheel treatment last Sunday night, and this week should have no issues against the Cardinals' banged-up CB group. Byron Murphy is good, but I expect him to match up most with CeeDee Lamb. Michael Gallup also gets a bump.
On the other side of that game, Christian Kirk will likely see most of his snaps away from Trevon Diggs. Kirk has blow-up potential in a possible shootout.
Josh Allen and the Bills are gigantic favorites against Atlanta this week. Both Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley have extremely advantageous matchups as the primary LWR and slot. Stefon Diggs moves all around the formation. He'll probably see more of A.J. Terrell than Davis, but not enough to where I'd classify his matchup as anything other than favorable.
Last week in this article, I recommended all three Bengals receivers against a reeling Ravens secondary. All three of Van Jefferson, Odell Beckham Jr., and Cooper Kupp have sky-high ceilings against Baltimore's skeleton crew this week.
Last week's article also recommended Deebo Samuel as a possible smash play, and he finally put up a big game as a receiver against the Titans. This week, he gets the Texans, who have funneled production away from LWRs all year. Check for updates about Trey Lance possibly starting over the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, but you aren't sitting Deebo regardless.
A.J. Brown also had a breakout game last week, torching the 49ers' overmatched CBs throughout the second half. This week, he should have no issue producing on the Dolphins, who have given up the third-most FPPG to opposing WR1s this season.
Byron Pringle showed up big in last week's best ball semifinal, and this week has an advantageous matchup against the Bengals, who generally funnel production to opposing WR2s. Tyreek Hill is also in a prime bounce-back spot given how much he moves around the formation.
The Vikings have given up the fifth-most FPPG to opposing WR1s this season, which puts Davante Adams in a great spot. Frigid weather conditions might limit passing production in general, but Aaron Rodgers and Adams are used to playing in the cold.
The Bucs' WR1 situation is fluid. Mike Evans is coming back from injury and the Covid list while Antonio Brown is dealing with his own injury issues. Whoever lines up as WR1 against the Jets has a plus matchup.
Brandin Cooks gets the 49ers' burnable CB group this week. San Fran has given up the second-most FPPG to opposing WR1s this season. Nico Collins may see more of Ambry Thomas than Cooks, which makes his matchup advantageous as well.
The Giants give up the sixth-most FPPG to opposing slots. It's a good spot for Darnell Mooney as Nick Foles' top wideout.
Jarvis Landry has an easy matchup against the Steelers' below-average slot defense. Baker Mayfield is clearly banged-up but this is a good spot for Landry.
Finally, Jaylen Waddle is just six catches away from breaking the rookie receptions record. I expect him to get it this week. He's in an absolute smash spot against a Titans defense that was just shredded by Deebo Samuel.
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WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade
Mike Williams is back from the Covid list, but this week will have to deal with standout rookie Patrick Surtain II. Williams is a contested-catch beast but the Broncos rookie has given up the fifth-fewest FPPG to opposing LWRs.
The Texans' pass defense has actually been decent this year, especially against WR1s. Desmond King is a solid starting CB and should see more of Brandon Aiyuk than any other 49ers receiver. It's not a great spot for Aiyuk.
The Raiders have rotated WRs at X receiver (LWR), and whoever plays that position most this week will have to deal with Xavier Rhodes. None of Bryan Edwards, DeSean Jackson, or Zay Jones are particularly inspiring options in this matchup.
Terry McLaurin has struggled to produce recently in a slumping Washington passing attack. This week, he faces off against the toughest outside CB duo in the league in terms of giving up fantasy points. Steven Nelson and Darius Slay have been fantastic and are two huge reasons the Eagles could be heading to the playoffs. Slay has a chance at earning an All-Pro nod.
The Broncos' WRs have been incredibly disappointing this season. It won't get any easier in championship week when they take on the Chargers' stingy secondary. Keep in mind that the Bolts could be without Michael Davis and Chris Harris Jr. If they are out, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and Jerry Jeudy do get upgrades.
EDIT: Jeudy is out now which makes Sutton and Patrick a bit more appealing from a target share standpoint.
D.J. Moore has fallen victim to a dreadful QB situation, and this week will have to deal with Marshon Lattimore. I'd consider looking elsewhere depending on your other options.
Michael Pittman Jr. has cooled off considerably and this week faces off against Casey Hayward. Hayward has been one of the most underrated players in the NFL for a long time.
Speaking of underrated defenders, on the other side of that game, Hunter Renfrow will face off against Colts nickel corner Kenny Moore. Moore is arguably the best slot defender in the NFL. Renfrow can run routes against anyone, but this is a tough matchup.
Finally, Tee Higgins has the toughest on-paper matchup of any of the Bengals' WRs. You obviously aren't sitting Higgins or Ja'Marr Chase in a potential shootout. Just keep in mind that the Chiefs' defense has gotten stingier as the year has gone on, in large part due to excellent CB play from Rashad Fenton, Mike Hughes, Charvarius Ward, and L'Jarius Sneed.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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